Kevin Chen

$ASTS, $QS, $AUR | economics, theology, philosophy, and the UAP phenomenon | Lost access to @Defiantclient

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: The @AST_SpaceMobile subreddit FAQ is now freshly updated with new information.

+ Key DD links and resources
+ Valuation calculators
+ Launch providers
+ What's stopping Elon from refusing to launch AST's BlueBird satellites?
+ How many satellites are needed for coverage?
+ AST keeps missing their guidance for satellite launches. What is going on here? How do we trust them moving forward?
+ What are AST's plans with Block 1, Block 2 and Block 3 satellites and how does that relate to spectrum usage?
+ Do AST satellites support 4G, LTE, 5G, 6G, 7G, etc.?
+ When will ASTS get regulatory clearance from the FCC for US market access?
+ What is each BlueBird satellite made of?
+ What is the difference between BB6/BB7 and BB8+?
+ What is the status of the next BlueBird satellites?
+ When is the next earnings call?
+ What are the chances of satellite failure?
+ WTF!! The Chief Technology Officer Huiwen Yao sold all his shares?! (Hint: he didn't)
+ Is there a Discord for live chatting about ASTS?
+ How do I buy AST merch?
+ Wen moon?
+ Wen lunch?
+ Wen BB shipment?

https://t.co/wQfxs6Y3Iz

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@NogginsBobby Haha interesting -- let's see how they market it!

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: "So getting the capability ready for consumers is something that we're targeting for later in 2026. How we go to market with that, how we use that, of course, like you said, we're going to defer to our partners and there'll be announcements on that in the right way."
- @scottwisniews on last earnings call on August 10

This adds to the idea that the original tweet was a mistake not in technical accuracy but in contractural/legal --- They were supposed to defer to @Rakuten_Mobile so this announcement was not the right way.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: @AST_SpaceMobile just edited their latest tweet about 7 hours after posting, scrubbing the reference to starting service in Japan by year end 2026.

First, that was sloppy. No excusing that. Especially as this was definitely not the first time that they edited a tweet several hours after posting. Usually it would be for a silly typo (which is also sloppy as shit). This time, they removed a meaningful piece of information.

In my view, it is one of two likely reasons they made the edit:

+ The timeline is a mistake as in they won’t start service by year end with @Rakuten_Mobile, or

+ AST wasn’t supposed to publish the timeline themselves because they have always deferred timeline announcements to their partners.

Couple of pieces of supporting evidence for the latter theory that the timeline to service is still this year:

1) Only about 7 days ago, Rakuten was handing out brochures promoting a Q4 service start at an industry conference/event. See the quoted post below for the brochure.

2) Only 2 days ago, AST PR’d that they would start service this year. (I think maybe the PR was safe but not the tweet because the PR did not directly say which MNOs they would start service with. Yes they named their MNO strategic partners in the PR somewhere but it wasn’t directly in a statement about service starting in 2026.)

Stay tuned 🤷‍♂️

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@zebermann91 I think they are just deferring the announcements to their MNOs.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

I think it's because of what I said -- they weren't supposed to speak for Rakuten on MNO service starts and announcements.

See @scottwisniews comment from last earnings: "So getting the capability ready for consumers is something that we're targeting for later in 2026. How we go to market with that, how we use that, of course, like you said, we're going to defer to our partners and there'll be announcements on that in the right way."

https://t.co/bqKJSKTMdY

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: It was long guided by @AST_SpaceMobile that initial noncontinuous service would begin with 25 BlueBirds (5 Block 1 plus 20 Block 2). However, on the Q2 earnings call, @scottwisniews hinted at pulling beta service forward by the end of the year with fewer than 25 BBs in his reply to Louie Dipalma of @WilliamBlair. 👇

Louie Dipalma, William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division

Great. Thanks Scott. And you discussed the beta trials. What is the timing in terms of when consumers will be able to trial your network? I know that you don't want to speak on behalf of your carrier partners, but have they given any sense on when the generic AT&T and Verizon customers will be able to test out the service?

And related to that, if there are like 25 satellites in orbit, from a general location in the United States, what percentage of the day will a satellite be overhead such that consumers will be able to connect to your network?

Scott Wisniewski, President & Chief Strategy Officer, AST SpaceMobile

Thanks, Louie. So getting the capability ready for consumers is something that we're targeting for later in 2026. How we go to market with that, how we use that, of course, like you said, we're going to defer to our partners and there'll be announcements on that in the right way.

But we're very focused on enabling that. And there's a lot that you can do separate, apart from the space. So those 2 are kind of separate. And so while we've historically said 25 satellites is the right way to think about it, we have great flexibility there on how we do beta.

So for us, it's all about racing forward towards putting satellites in the air and then racing towards getting a scaled beta available because, of course, the steps from a scaled beta to commercial service is pretty quick. It's just a function of satellites in orbit. And in terms of our -- about 25 satellites, like you said, that's -- there's a lot of variance there, but think about it as about half the day coverage.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: @AST_SpaceMobile just edited their latest tweet about 7 hours after posting, scrubbing the reference to starting service in Japan by year end 2026.

First, that was sloppy. No excusing that. Especially as this was definitely not the first time that they edited a tweet several hours after posting. Usually it would be for a silly typo (which is also sloppy as shit). This time, they removed a meaningful piece of information.

In my view, it is one of two likely reasons they made the edit:

+ The timeline is a mistake as in they won’t start service by year end with @Rakuten_Mobile, or

+ AST wasn’t supposed to publish the timeline themselves because they have always deferred timeline announcements to their partners.

Couple of pieces of supporting evidence for the latter theory that the timeline to service is still this year:

1) Only about 7 days ago, Rakuten was handing out brochures promoting a Q4 service start at an industry conference/event. See the quoted post below for the brochure.

2) Only 2 days ago, AST PR’d that they would start service this year. (I think maybe the PR was safe but not the tweet because the PR did not directly say which MNOs they would start service with. Yes they named their MNO strategic partners in the PR somewhere but it wasn’t directly in a statement about service starting in 2026.)

Stay tuned 🤷‍♂️

[niwatori @niwaX3_niwatori]

楽天の2026年第四半期 国内サービス行けるのか？

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

The concerns raised in T-Mobile's report appear to be magnified by Starlink Direct-to-Cell's inefficient design, and should be less of a problem for a better system such as AST SpaceMobile's:

+ Starlink's moving cells makes it harder to deal with interference as the satellite comes and goes, sweeping its signals over the earth. AST SpaceMobile addresses this issue by beaming fixed cells, respecting boundaries where satellite coverage is needed vs not needed. As quoted in the RKF Engineering report dated July 18, 2025, "Each satellite in the AST low earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation uses an active direct radiating array with thousands of actively controlled radiating elements. Because of this high flexibiltiy, AST satellites can control beam beamwidth and beam sidelobs as well as the beam transmit power and beam pointing direction to mitigate interfering transmission beyond a serving area boundary."

+ Starlink's poor ACLR and OOBE management causes unnecessary spillage. Meanwhile AST's network meets the OOBE PFD limit of -120 dbW/m²/MHz throughout the United States.

https://t.co/auvalCIwlo

[C🅰️tSE @CatSE___ApeX___]

- This is about putting signal where needed and useful. It’s about not sending signals where they do harm. AST ACLR is -40 dB. They emitt only -40dB in adjacent channels, better than towers. Compare to Space-X ACLR of -20dB worse than towers.

-On a log scale. Wow.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

Looks like you missed the last earnings call where Scott already alluded to beta with fewer than BB25.

The number of BBs affects coverage. Hitting BB25 doesn't enable magic. It enables ~half a day's coverage. Starting beta with something fewer than BB25 just means less than half a day's coverage.

https://t.co/bqKJSKTMdY

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: It was long guided by @AST_SpaceMobile that initial noncontinuous service would begin with 25 BlueBirds (5 Block 1 plus 20 Block 2). However, on the Q2 earnings call, @scottwisniews hinted at pulling beta service forward by the end of the year with fewer than 25 BBs in his reply to Louie Dipalma of @WilliamBlair. 👇

Louie Dipalma, William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division

Great. Thanks Scott. And you discussed the beta trials. What is the timing in terms of when consumers will be able to trial your network? I know that you don't want to speak on behalf of your carrier partners, but have they given any sense on when the generic AT&T and Verizon customers will be able to test out the service?

And related to that, if there are like 25 satellites in orbit, from a general location in the United States, what percentage of the day will a satellite be overhead such that consumers will be able to connect to your network?

Scott Wisniewski, President & Chief Strategy Officer, AST SpaceMobile

Thanks, Louie. So getting the capability ready for consumers is something that we're targeting for later in 2026. How we go to market with that, how we use that, of course, like you said, we're going to defer to our partners and there'll be announcements on that in the right way.

But we're very focused on enabling that. And there's a lot that you can do separate, apart from the space. So those 2 are kind of separate. And so while we've historically said 25 satellites is the right way to think about it, we have great flexibility there on how we do beta.

So for us, it's all about racing forward towards putting satellites in the air and then racing towards getting a scaled beta available because, of course, the steps from a scaled beta to commercial service is pretty quick. It's just a function of satellites in orbit. And in terms of our -- about 25 satellites, like you said, that's -- there's a lot of variance there, but think about it as about half the day coverage.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@DragonMaxGoku @AST_SpaceMobile You never know --- Vodafone used to have exclusivity too. AT&T used to have exclusivity too.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@anetysse @peter_adderton @spacanpanman @endless_frank @CatSE___ApeX___ @corleoneinvests @ASTS_Investors @wave3trades @BlackApple @SpacBobby I don’t trust him

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@DragonMaxGoku @AST_SpaceMobile Launch date is PR’d around a week before the actual launch.

I suspect BB14-16 became a standby payload after we missed the original launch slot and that’s why the comms are so funky this time.

The manifest is open until late November.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

Yes possibly.

You never know what’s in these contracts.

For example the entire world knows Globalstar’s partner is Apple but Globalstar cannot name them, ever. Even when the Globalstar CEO is on a panel with a host and the host literally says Apple to their face. I don’t think the MNO-AST situation is as extreme as that but just one strong example to illustrate.

The PR just says Japan. Could be Rakuten (it most likely is) or even another partner in the works such as Docomo or NTT. Point is — the PR doesn’t announce Rakuten’s timeline for Rakuten.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@5xSuitor @AST_SpaceMobile That’s Option 1 in my post but I’m pretty sure it’s Option 2. Idk tho.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@DragonMaxGoku @AST_SpaceMobile I don’t think it’s a retraction. I covered “why was the PR ok but not the tweet” in my post.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@bradinhooooo @AST_SpaceMobile Abel’s counterpart would be Hiroshi Mikitani, who wasn’t in the photo either. Guess they’re doing something else.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@CaptainScuzzy @AST_SpaceMobile We wouldn’t know if they did

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@ChrisGalli59239 @AST_SpaceMobile Pretty sure they’ll start service with any number of BBs by year end, wherever their cards may fall:

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: It was long guided by @AST_SpaceMobile that initial noncontinuous service would begin with 25 BlueBirds (5 Block 1 plus 20 Block 2). However, on the Q2 earnings call, @scottwisniews hinted at pulling beta service forward by the end of the year with fewer than 25 BBs in his reply to Louie Dipalma of @WilliamBlair. 👇

Louie Dipalma, William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division

Great. Thanks Scott. And you discussed the beta trials. What is the timing in terms of when consumers will be able to trial your network? I know that you don't want to speak on behalf of your carrier partners, but have they given any sense on when the generic AT&T and Verizon customers will be able to test out the service?

And related to that, if there are like 25 satellites in orbit, from a general location in the United States, what percentage of the day will a satellite be overhead such that consumers will be able to connect to your network?

Scott Wisniewski, President & Chief Strategy Officer, AST SpaceMobile

Thanks, Louie. So getting the capability ready for consumers is something that we're targeting for later in 2026. How we go to market with that, how we use that, of course, like you said, we're going to defer to our partners and there'll be announcements on that in the right way.

But we're very focused on enabling that. And there's a lot that you can do separate, apart from the space. So those 2 are kind of separate. And so while we've historically said 25 satellites is the right way to think about it, we have great flexibility there on how we do beta.

So for us, it's all about racing forward towards putting satellites in the air and then racing towards getting a scaled beta available because, of course, the steps from a scaled beta to commercial service is pretty quick. It's just a function of satellites in orbit. And in terms of our -- about 25 satellites, like you said, that's -- there's a lot of variance there, but think about it as about half the day coverage.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@AustinSlezak @AST_SpaceMobile @Rakuten_Mobile @RakutenSymphony 🤷‍♂️

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: @AST_SpaceMobile just edited their latest tweet about 7 hours after posting, scrubbing the reference to starting service in Japan by year end 2026.

First, that was sloppy. No excusing that. Especially as this was definitely not the first time that they edited a tweet several hours after posting. Usually it would be for a silly typo (which is also sloppy as shit). This time, they removed a meaningful piece of information.

In my view, it is one of two likely reasons they made the edit:

+ The timeline is a mistake as in they won’t start service by year end with @Rakuten_Mobile, or

+ AST wasn’t supposed to publish the timeline themselves because they have always deferred timeline announcements to their partners.

Couple of pieces of supporting evidence for the latter theory that the timeline to service is still this year:

1) Only about 7 days ago, Rakuten was handing out brochures promoting a Q4 service start at an industry conference/event. See the quoted post below for the brochure.

2) Only 2 days ago, AST PR’d that they would start service this year. (I think maybe the PR was safe but not the tweet because the PR did not directly say which MNOs they would start service with. Yes they named their MNO strategic partners in the PR somewhere but it wasn’t directly in a statement about service starting in 2026.)

Stay tuned 🤷‍♂️

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@PSInvestor They have said they’ll get it funded with non dilutive means such as government grants

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$ASTS: One day, Harvard Business School will teach Mike Sievert's partnership with SpaceX as one of the greatest corporate own goals in telecom history.

How T-Mobile helped SpaceX enter the mobile industry by providing valuable mid-band spectrum, supporting technology development, and lending its distribution and marketing muscle to help build and brand a future competitor to its own core mobile business.

And the kicker? Starlink's fixed broadband service was ALREADY competing with T-Mobile's 5G Home Internet business.🤦‍♂️

That said, if it weren't for Starlink, AST SpaceMobile might not have had the opportunity to lock up potentially 100% of the US, Europe and other markets.

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$ASTS: SpaceX pursuing 80,000 cell sites confirms its move to become the nation's fourth mobile network operator and compete against AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. It could cost $30 - $40B over 10 years before operating costs and additional $ for spectrum.

The competitive threat to incumbent MNOs is now crystal clear. This makes AST strategically indispensable. AST offers US and global MNOs an independent super wholesale partner of true space-based cellular broadband connectivity that strengthens their coverage and counters Starlink Mobile's threat.

The strategic incentives are now perfectly aligned. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile (soon) have every reason to accelerate AST's deployment, provide financing and ensure it succeeds. They need to tell customers they can deliver broadband connectivity across 100% of their geographic footprint, including "1-bar" areas - not just places where +90% of where most people live and work.

SpaceX will be spending tens of billions to build a competing terrestrial network to compete, while AST can leverage the infrastructure, spectrum and customer bases that the MNOs around the world already control.

SpaceX's aggressive expansion in the MNO business is the most bullish catalyst for AST SpaceMobile. The market has yet to understand this, but it will in due time.