🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

Watch out above!
$ASTS

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

$SPCX IPO opening price prediction market showing 2.2t mkt cap. Despite a 1.8t price being discussed, this is probably predicting a gap up on open. Can’t see how space stocks, particularly $ASTs don’t rally ahead provided a calm macro.

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

@CatSE___ApeX___ I just realized my shares are being lent out. Probably worth us all disallowing that with the broker. In interactive brokers its called stock yield enhancement. Wonder what happens if we all turn it off

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

@endless_frank Its down because crude & rates are up. So, stocks with fat earnings tails like ast get discounted alongside higher rates. It will reverse harder when crude chills.

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

@SimDesai @AnthropicAI @Hiive_HQ Will you be adding Anthropic back to Hiive? It has been missing for at least 48 hours

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

@AdityaInvests90 Stocks trade on the net present value of future cash flows. Not today’s revenue.

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

@LeoCapital_01 $ASTS named

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

@tottaway22 Afknmen

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

@spacanpanman Wish your son a speedy recovery!

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

@thekookreport Definitely

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

@spacanpanman $3b of cash + FCC license + patents

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

Frank, I love your enthusiasm and passion for this stock, and I appreciate some of your posts as they contain good information.

As investors, we need to trust that management is spending their time the right way i.e. solving hard problems—which inevitebly makes our moat even bigger—instead of overcommunicating every bit of the way (which can also lead to unnecessary risk).

As a trading professional, I will also say we need to be careful on what we are claiming is happening specifically to our stock with each tick and volume traded. Check out correlation—many other names (and sectors) have similar price action. Baskets are very relevant in our market.

ASTS is inevitable. Just don’t have too much theta bleed, rest easy, and wake up to one of the best returns on capital in the long term.

[Alexander @AlexfromBabylon]

$ASTS I keep saying it: There will be one lowband constellation at scale and there will be multiple midband D2D providers including Starlink and Amazon with their own connectivity bundles.

Midband will be the commodity and agressive pricing layer. AST will largely at scale have a lowband monopoly globally and that’s unique. MNO’s will never give SpaceX and Amazon low band and anyone else cannot pull it off.

If you read about the multi tenant D2D model, 6G and the future of Physical AI you conclude that lowband is the most important D2D layer, because it is a bridge between the phone and higher capacity midband.

Wall Street analysis is still superficial in not recognizing this. They talk about increased competition, while in reality nobody will be competing in lowband in a multi tenant setup.

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

@BenJawanda Don’t forget we are still in the middle of Rakkuten sell pressure. This will likely ease up in the coming trading days. 🚀

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

@spacanpanman Do what degree do we think this was priced in?

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$ASTS: Some additional thoughts on Amazon/Globalstar deal

+ AST SpaceMobile has multi-year mutual exclusivity with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and others out of the 50 MNOs its working with today

+ Amazon is positioning this deal as providing more choice which will help with regulatory review process, however it's unclear what, if any, MNOs would work with Amazon (see exclusivity above)

+ Globalstar offers about 1/3 the spectrum that AST and Starlink have in the US. Spectrum = capacity and ability to deliver broadband

+ Claiming 2028 rollout of D2D satellites is a exceptionally ambitious timeline = probably part of the strategy to achieve regulatory approval

+ There's strategic value for Amazon focusing on internal use cases vs. providing a service outside of its ecosystem

+ Amazon/Globalstar bring more attention and interest to the sector and *validates* what AST has been doing all along

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

Once again—5 minutes of further DD. Government? ASTS is an IDIQ contractor. IoT—cars, drones, robots, smart glasses, watches, data centers? The list is effectively limitless. What time frame does $30b TAM for d2d refer to? How does it change over time? You are missing 90% of the analysis…again.

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

@Jason @grok Yikes. Love ya Jason, but bit of a miss from you—check out AST Spacemobile

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

How come you didn’t include ‘27 in your analysis? $1b was officially guided for ‘27 on prior earnings call.

$5b+ ARR at 70%+ operating margin is inevitable for this company. Of course there is a premium on current year ratios. That’s because the stock is cheap relative to what it will do in ‘27-‘30. The market is slowly starting to price it in as event risk disappears. No matter how you slice it, the ASTS story is now inevitable.

Do more than 5 minutes of DD and check your tail. In your model (which I’m assuming doesn’t exist). And your backside. :)

[🅰️ DefinedReturns 🅰️ @DefinedReturns]

@spacanpanman What source? Ortex has lower