![harleyfoote_'s tweet photo. The Fed hiked 25bp. Crypto went UP. Here is why, and what usually happens next. 🏦🧵
THE SETUP
A hike was 88% priced on Polymarket at 18:00. Everyone knew. So the number was never the trade. The trade was the positioning into it: BTC came into the meeting −2.0% over five days, ETH −5.1%, both sitting on the lines we set before CPI (75,930 and 2,393). Funding positive, whales net short on both.
[STATEMENT LINE: one sentence on what the statement said, e.g. "The statement kept 'further firming' and gave no hint of a pause."]
THE FIRST 15 MINUTES
BTC 75,668 → 75,921 (+0.3%). Spiked to 76,547 in the first ten minutes, gave most of it back.
ETH 2,386 → 2,406 (+0.8%). Spiked to 2,430, holding 2,400.
The liquidation tape tells you what that spike was. Six venues, the four-hour window covering the decision:
• BTC: $36m of SHORTS liquidated, $4m of longs
• ETH: $12m of shorts, $9m of longs
Nine times more BTC shorts were force-closed than longs. That is not buying. That is shorts being closed for them. A short liquidation is a forced buy, and a book that came into the meeting short gets bought on the print no matter what the print says.
WHO GOT CAUGHT, WHO DIDN'T
On Hyperliquid, whales did not flinch. ETH whale shorts went $1,029m → $1,041m through the spike. They ADDED. BTC whale shorts $1,112m → $1,105m, barely touched. New whale wallets since the decision bought $1m of ETH and sold nothing.
The crowd: ETH 42% long before, 42% long now. Binance retail 76% long. Open interest ETH $2.32bn → $2.35bn, BTC $2.83bn → $2.80bn.
So the squeeze cleared the small shorts and the big ones stayed. That matters for the next few days.
WHAT FED DAYS USUALLY DO
We keep the base rates. 68 meetings since 2019:
• the Fed-day close is the low of the week only 22% of the time
• the median bounce from the Fed-day low over the next five days is +3.4%
• but the last 8 meetings: BTC red on the day 6 of 8, ETH 6 of 8, and LOWER a week later 7 of 8
The split that matters today: ETH came in DOWN 5% over five days. In the 30 meetings where ETH came in down, the five-day return after was a median +2.0% and negative only 33% of the time. Coming in sold is historically the better side of a Fed day. That is the honest counter-argument to anyone short here, us included.
THE LEVELS INTO FRIDAY
ETH: 20-day range 2,356–2,666. The line above is 2,533, the old range top. Below, 2,356 is the September low. Daily 200 EMA 2,171. 25 Sep options expiry max pain 2,200, 44% of all ETH options.
BTC: 20-day range 74,903–82,268. Daily 200 EMA 72,095. 25 Sep max pain 72,000.
WHAT WE ARE WATCHING
1. Does ETH close the day above 2,393, the pre-CPI line it lost this morning? If yes, the short squeeze had follow-through. If no, the spike was the whole move.
2. Whale shorts at $1.04bn. If they start covering, the +2% base case is on. If they add again into 2,430–2,533, it is the same book as before the meeting.
3. Friday's close against 2,533 and 82,268. The first hour of a Fed day is the trap more often than the trend. Friday is the tell.
Happy Hunting! 🫡](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSW7jnGXQAAUo6x.jpg)
![harleyfoote_'s tweet photo. The Fed hiked 25bp. Crypto went UP. Here is why, and what usually happens next. 🏦🧵
THE SETUP
A hike was 88% priced on Polymarket at 18:00. Everyone knew. So the number was never the trade. The trade was the positioning into it: BTC came into the meeting −2.0% over five days, ETH −5.1%, both sitting on the lines we set before CPI (75,930 and 2,393). Funding positive, whales net short on both.
[STATEMENT LINE: one sentence on what the statement said, e.g. "The statement kept 'further firming' and gave no hint of a pause."]
THE FIRST 15 MINUTES
BTC 75,668 → 75,921 (+0.3%). Spiked to 76,547 in the first ten minutes, gave most of it back.
ETH 2,386 → 2,406 (+0.8%). Spiked to 2,430, holding 2,400.
The liquidation tape tells you what that spike was. Six venues, the four-hour window covering the decision:
• BTC: $36m of SHORTS liquidated, $4m of longs
• ETH: $12m of shorts, $9m of longs
Nine times more BTC shorts were force-closed than longs. That is not buying. That is shorts being closed for them. A short liquidation is a forced buy, and a book that came into the meeting short gets bought on the print no matter what the print says.
WHO GOT CAUGHT, WHO DIDN'T
On Hyperliquid, whales did not flinch. ETH whale shorts went $1,029m → $1,041m through the spike. They ADDED. BTC whale shorts $1,112m → $1,105m, barely touched. New whale wallets since the decision bought $1m of ETH and sold nothing.
The crowd: ETH 42% long before, 42% long now. Binance retail 76% long. Open interest ETH $2.32bn → $2.35bn, BTC $2.83bn → $2.80bn.
So the squeeze cleared the small shorts and the big ones stayed. That matters for the next few days.
WHAT FED DAYS USUALLY DO
We keep the base rates. 68 meetings since 2019:
• the Fed-day close is the low of the week only 22% of the time
• the median bounce from the Fed-day low over the next five days is +3.4%
• but the last 8 meetings: BTC red on the day 6 of 8, ETH 6 of 8, and LOWER a week later 7 of 8
The split that matters today: ETH came in DOWN 5% over five days. In the 30 meetings where ETH came in down, the five-day return after was a median +2.0% and negative only 33% of the time. Coming in sold is historically the better side of a Fed day. That is the honest counter-argument to anyone short here, us included.
THE LEVELS INTO FRIDAY
ETH: 20-day range 2,356–2,666. The line above is 2,533, the old range top. Below, 2,356 is the September low. Daily 200 EMA 2,171. 25 Sep options expiry max pain 2,200, 44% of all ETH options.
BTC: 20-day range 74,903–82,268. Daily 200 EMA 72,095. 25 Sep max pain 72,000.
WHAT WE ARE WATCHING
1. Does ETH close the day above 2,393, the pre-CPI line it lost this morning? If yes, the short squeeze had follow-through. If no, the spike was the whole move.
2. Whale shorts at $1.04bn. If they start covering, the +2% base case is on. If they add again into 2,430–2,533, it is the same book as before the meeting.
3. Friday's close against 2,533 and 82,268. The first hour of a Fed day is the trap more often than the trend. Friday is the tell.
Happy Hunting! 🫡](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSW7i81XoAAuaT6.jpg)
![harleyfoote_'s tweet photo. The Fed hiked 25bp. Crypto went UP. Here is why, and what usually happens next. 🏦🧵
THE SETUP
A hike was 88% priced on Polymarket at 18:00. Everyone knew. So the number was never the trade. The trade was the positioning into it: BTC came into the meeting −2.0% over five days, ETH −5.1%, both sitting on the lines we set before CPI (75,930 and 2,393). Funding positive, whales net short on both.
[STATEMENT LINE: one sentence on what the statement said, e.g. "The statement kept 'further firming' and gave no hint of a pause."]
THE FIRST 15 MINUTES
BTC 75,668 → 75,921 (+0.3%). Spiked to 76,547 in the first ten minutes, gave most of it back.
ETH 2,386 → 2,406 (+0.8%). Spiked to 2,430, holding 2,400.
The liquidation tape tells you what that spike was. Six venues, the four-hour window covering the decision:
• BTC: $36m of SHORTS liquidated, $4m of longs
• ETH: $12m of shorts, $9m of longs
Nine times more BTC shorts were force-closed than longs. That is not buying. That is shorts being closed for them. A short liquidation is a forced buy, and a book that came into the meeting short gets bought on the print no matter what the print says.
WHO GOT CAUGHT, WHO DIDN'T
On Hyperliquid, whales did not flinch. ETH whale shorts went $1,029m → $1,041m through the spike. They ADDED. BTC whale shorts $1,112m → $1,105m, barely touched. New whale wallets since the decision bought $1m of ETH and sold nothing.
The crowd: ETH 42% long before, 42% long now. Binance retail 76% long. Open interest ETH $2.32bn → $2.35bn, BTC $2.83bn → $2.80bn.
So the squeeze cleared the small shorts and the big ones stayed. That matters for the next few days.
WHAT FED DAYS USUALLY DO
We keep the base rates. 68 meetings since 2019:
• the Fed-day close is the low of the week only 22% of the time
• the median bounce from the Fed-day low over the next five days is +3.4%
• but the last 8 meetings: BTC red on the day 6 of 8, ETH 6 of 8, and LOWER a week later 7 of 8
The split that matters today: ETH came in DOWN 5% over five days. In the 30 meetings where ETH came in down, the five-day return after was a median +2.0% and negative only 33% of the time. Coming in sold is historically the better side of a Fed day. That is the honest counter-argument to anyone short here, us included.
THE LEVELS INTO FRIDAY
ETH: 20-day range 2,356–2,666. The line above is 2,533, the old range top. Below, 2,356 is the September low. Daily 200 EMA 2,171. 25 Sep options expiry max pain 2,200, 44% of all ETH options.
BTC: 20-day range 74,903–82,268. Daily 200 EMA 72,095. 25 Sep max pain 72,000.
WHAT WE ARE WATCHING
1. Does ETH close the day above 2,393, the pre-CPI line it lost this morning? If yes, the short squeeze had follow-through. If no, the spike was the whole move.
2. Whale shorts at $1.04bn. If they start covering, the +2% base case is on. If they add again into 2,430–2,533, it is the same book as before the meeting.
3. Friday's close against 2,533 and 82,268. The first hour of a Fed day is the trap more often than the trend. Friday is the tell.
Happy Hunting! 🫡](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSW7iNdWUAAvO9r.png)
Olivia
Online
Blessing Defi
@DefiSavvy2
Web3 Writer ,DeFi dreamer | Community Web3 Enthusiast | Moderator | Building & Growing Digital Spaces
South Africa
Joined January 2024
34 Following
23 Followers
395 Posts
📉 On Sunday I flagged heavy alt leverage. Here's what happened next.
Since Saturday's close (to 15:10 UTC Mon):
BTC -1.7%
ETH -1.0%
Alts -4.2% (36 of 40 red)
The leverage was flagged. The timing wasn't known. How much has unwound? 🧵
I think next week solana:A2C5f6oYH2ipGb1mQTRDrUvKtNYtS6jnyaeXDXaZYpj7 get absolutely slammed. Thread to follow as to why.
Fix up look sharp.
@harleyfoote_ Interesting
Whipsaw on everything.
Going to give my take shortly $BTC $ETH
Macro feels heavy, dollar feels strong.
Wouldn’t it be funny if $META doing well markets the top.
Classic Zuckerberg in the trenches.
@harleyfoote_ Variable tool output is basically the worst case for predictable context reuse
Re-reading the trace every step. That's the KV cache thrashing problem in disguise, and it gets worse with variable-length tool outputs.
@harleyfoote_ The mean is interesting but the distribution is telling you much more about where the edge actually lives
Three out of five LLM calls just burned tokens on a prompt nobody's looked at in months.
This is the new observability: not "did it respond?" but "did it call the right tool, get real data, and actually answer the user?" — the gap between green dashboards and furious
ETH is at $2,498 and some account is giving away one to celebrate "new all time highs."
Not a correction. Not a dip. Just a completely invented number that enough people will repeat until it becomes true.
@harleyfoote_ The real knowledge starts where the demo ends
@harleyfoote_ This is a nice distinction between level confirmation and move exhaustion
The Fed hiked 25bp. Crypto went UP. Here is why, and what usually happens next. 🏦🧵
THE SETUP
A hike was 88% priced on Polymarket at 18:00. Everyone knew. So the number was never the trade. The trade was the positioning into it: BTC came into the meeting −2.0% over five days, ETH −5.1%, both sitting on the lines we set before CPI (75,930 and 2,393). Funding positive, whales net short on both.
[STATEMENT LINE: one sentence on what the statement said, e.g. "The statement kept 'further firming' and gave no hint of a pause."]
THE FIRST 15 MINUTES
BTC 75,668 → 75,921 (+0.3%). Spiked to 76,547 in the first ten minutes, gave most of it back.
ETH 2,386 → 2,406 (+0.8%). Spiked to 2,430, holding 2,400.
The liquidation tape tells you what that spike was. Six venues, the four-hour window covering the decision:
• BTC: $36m of SHORTS liquidated, $4m of longs
• ETH: $12m of shorts, $9m of longs
Nine times more BTC shorts were force-closed than longs. That is not buying. That is shorts being closed for them. A short liquidation is a forced buy, and a book that came into the meeting short gets bought on the print no matter what the print says.
WHO GOT CAUGHT, WHO DIDN'T
On Hyperliquid, whales did not flinch. ETH whale shorts went $1,029m → $1,041m through the spike. They ADDED. BTC whale shorts $1,112m → $1,105m, barely touched. New whale wallets since the decision bought $1m of ETH and sold nothing.
The crowd: ETH 42% long before, 42% long now. Binance retail 76% long. Open interest ETH $2.32bn → $2.35bn, BTC $2.83bn → $2.80bn.
So the squeeze cleared the small shorts and the big ones stayed. That matters for the next few days.
WHAT FED DAYS USUALLY DO
We keep the base rates. 68 meetings since 2019:
• the Fed-day close is the low of the week only 22% of the time
• the median bounce from the Fed-day low over the next five days is +3.4%
• but the last 8 meetings: BTC red on the day 6 of 8, ETH 6 of 8, and LOWER a week later 7 of 8
The split that matters today: ETH came in DOWN 5% over five days. In the 30 meetings where ETH came in down, the five-day return after was a median +2.0% and negative only 33% of the time. Coming in sold is historically the better side of a Fed day. That is the honest counter-argument to anyone short here, us included.
THE LEVELS INTO FRIDAY
ETH: 20-day range 2,356–2,666. The line above is 2,533, the old range top. Below, 2,356 is the September low. Daily 200 EMA 2,171. 25 Sep options expiry max pain 2,200, 44% of all ETH options.
BTC: 20-day range 74,903–82,268. Daily 200 EMA 72,095. 25 Sep max pain 72,000.
WHAT WE ARE WATCHING
1. Does ETH close the day above 2,393, the pre-CPI line it lost this morning? If yes, the short squeeze had follow-through. If no, the spike was the whole move.
2. Whale shorts at $1.04bn. If they start covering, the +2% base case is on. If they add again into 2,430–2,533, it is the same book as before the meeting.
3. Friday's close against 2,533 and 82,268. The first hour of a Fed day is the trap more often than the trend. Friday is the tell.
Happy Hunting! 🫡
![harleyfoote_'s tweet photo. The Fed hiked 25bp. Crypto went UP. Here is why, and what usually happens next. 🏦🧵
THE SETUP
A hike was 88% priced on Polymarket at 18:00. Everyone knew. So the number was never the trade. The trade was the positioning into it: BTC came into the meeting −2.0% over five days, ETH −5.1%, both sitting on the lines we set before CPI (75,930 and 2,393). Funding positive, whales net short on both.
[STATEMENT LINE: one sentence on what the statement said, e.g. "The statement kept 'further firming' and gave no hint of a pause."]
THE FIRST 15 MINUTES
BTC 75,668 → 75,921 (+0.3%). Spiked to 76,547 in the first ten minutes, gave most of it back.
ETH 2,386 → 2,406 (+0.8%). Spiked to 2,430, holding 2,400.
The liquidation tape tells you what that spike was. Six venues, the four-hour window covering the decision:
• BTC: $36m of SHORTS liquidated, $4m of longs
• ETH: $12m of shorts, $9m of longs
Nine times more BTC shorts were force-closed than longs. That is not buying. That is shorts being closed for them. A short liquidation is a forced buy, and a book that came into the meeting short gets bought on the print no matter what the print says.
WHO GOT CAUGHT, WHO DIDN'T
On Hyperliquid, whales did not flinch. ETH whale shorts went $1,029m → $1,041m through the spike. They ADDED. BTC whale shorts $1,112m → $1,105m, barely touched. New whale wallets since the decision bought $1m of ETH and sold nothing.
The crowd: ETH 42% long before, 42% long now. Binance retail 76% long. Open interest ETH $2.32bn → $2.35bn, BTC $2.83bn → $2.80bn.
So the squeeze cleared the small shorts and the big ones stayed. That matters for the next few days.
WHAT FED DAYS USUALLY DO
We keep the base rates. 68 meetings since 2019:
• the Fed-day close is the low of the week only 22% of the time
• the median bounce from the Fed-day low over the next five days is +3.4%
• but the last 8 meetings: BTC red on the day 6 of 8, ETH 6 of 8, and LOWER a week later 7 of 8
The split that matters today: ETH came in DOWN 5% over five days. In the 30 meetings where ETH came in down, the five-day return after was a median +2.0% and negative only 33% of the time. Coming in sold is historically the better side of a Fed day. That is the honest counter-argument to anyone short here, us included.
THE LEVELS INTO FRIDAY
ETH: 20-day range 2,356–2,666. The line above is 2,533, the old range top. Below, 2,356 is the September low. Daily 200 EMA 2,171. 25 Sep options expiry max pain 2,200, 44% of all ETH options.
BTC: 20-day range 74,903–82,268. Daily 200 EMA 72,095. 25 Sep max pain 72,000.
WHAT WE ARE WATCHING
1. Does ETH close the day above 2,393, the pre-CPI line it lost this morning? If yes, the short squeeze had follow-through. If no, the spike was the whole move.
2. Whale shorts at $1.04bn. If they start covering, the +2% base case is on. If they add again into 2,430–2,533, it is the same book as before the meeting.
3. Friday's close against 2,533 and 82,268. The first hour of a Fed day is the trap more often than the trend. Friday is the tell.
Happy Hunting! 🫡](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSW7kcJWsAIpgWr.jpg)
robots want their @OpenAI moment but they're stuck doing the captcha for the article about why they can't have it yet. the simulation-reality gap is just cloudflare now.
https://t.co/kl8lC7Ryvn
Happy birthday to me. 😄
34 & I feel better than I did in my 20s, god bless you all!
The best times are ahead.
@harleyfoote_ W article
AI isn't helping find Linux kernel bugs anymore. It's burying us in them.
My lab has over a thousand unreported vulnerabilities right now because we find them ten times faster than we can document them.
▶ Full video: https://t.co/nf4zg26r5c — via David Bombal
🛢️ The biggest oil supply shock ever recorded is happening right now. 10.1 million barrels a day offline. Two shipping straits shut, the world's biggest bypass pipeline hit. And crypto has barely moved. We ran the data. Here's why 🧵
Update on the squeeze. 📉
Two days later ETH has given back 88% of the CPI spike. 2,666 → 2,483.
• 2,533 range top rejected again Saturday
• 20 EMA (2,504) lost this morning
• biggest volume bar since the spike, $232m, and it was red
• $27.6m of longs liquidated in that one bar
Below: 2,428 range low → 2,393 (our Fed line: −3% from Tuesday's close by Monday, the priced-in dip) → 2,350–2,450 where $139m of Hyperliquid longs liquidate → 2,280 / 2,200.
Daily 50 EMA 2,255. Daily 200 EMA 2,168. 25 Sep max pain 2,200. They all sit in the same place. 🎯
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