bourbon_dem

Like art, movies, sport, cooking/spirits... but mostly here for politics lately (hello hellworld). Dem leftist, Radicalized since 2006, #Bernie2020

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

Not a bad prediction, as those things go...

Except I didn't consider the possibility that neither of the politicians whose entire political careers were based around resisting the politics Biden represents would elect to throw no punches at all.

Ah well. Next time!

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

@LaLuchadora22 @mehdirhasan @SenWarren I hope their camps have worked out an agreement whereby whoever lands the most damaging blows on Biden is the one who’ll drop out and return to the Senate so the other can be “come together” candidate. One will have to go nuclear & sink their candidacy to stop Biden I think

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

And, of course, this incredible strain on our health system is happening in the midst of an economic shutdown & the complete unraveling of the employer-sponsored health insurance system

If I were Sanders I might think maybe reality is opening up a path

https://t.co/HaCrpaRiIt

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

Over the next month, 100s of 1000s, if not millions, of Americans are going to contract an awful virus that requires, in many cases, hospitalization. A lot of those people are going to get massive bills if they're not denied treatment entirely

Joe Biden's still anti-M4A

There.

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

@stephdunke @ImNotOwned @PERHSIHTS @HenryKraemer Very hypothetical, this

Forget the Feb rationalizations: Warren always had to win early to get some momentum--that's why she built that massive IA operation!

No one thought it was going to get easier for her as the states turned less white/educated; Biden tho...

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

@stephdunke @ImNotOwned @PERHSIHTS @HenryKraemer Yup. I expected more when Sanders hired someone out of Harry Reid's office. Anita Dunn was really, really smart to note Sanders's complete indifference to piling up endorsements left Biden a big opening to revive his campaign. Still, that's on the whole progressive movement imo.

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

@stephdunke @ImNotOwned @PERHSIHTS @HenryKraemer She picked up delegates in one of the four Feb contests, and polls had her grabbing a couple here & there in CDs on Super Tuesday. Those are Howard Dean or Wes Clark numbers

Yeah. Bloomberg making a chew toy of himself was brilliant, imo. Strategery.

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

@stephdunke @ImNotOwned @PERHSIHTS @HenryKraemer I don't think they were expecting the field to stay crowded long in March. They expecting on the centrist consolidation coming *after* Super Tuesday (weren't we all?), by which point he would've been in a Biden position (i.e. pretty much running away with it).

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

@stephdunke @ImNotOwned @PERHSIHTS @HenryKraemer Primary, cos it was a two-day race.

Same day general, because I like the ceremony of it :)

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

@stephdunke @ImNotOwned @PERHSIHTS @HenryKraemer "can't fault the Warren campaign for doing what they did, as far as trying to [be] biggest bargainer at the convention"

I can: didn't need internal polling to know she wasn't going to have delegates, so did they ever say to themselves "we do this, and Biden Mondales us"? shoulda

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

@stephdunke @ImNotOwned @PERHSIHTS @HenryKraemer I mean, if Sanders had made whatever offer he needed to to get Warren to do a Pete/Amy, her supporters could've been way more resistant than theirs & Sanders probably *still* would've won TX & definitely MA, ME, MN

Huge failure of the left generally. Sanders, Warren, all of em

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

@stephdunke @ImNotOwned @PERHSIHTS @HenryKraemer I used to be in an early vote state

Voted early in '16, no prob

Wouldn't have this year, remembering what happened in CA in '08 (Clinton beat Obama because a bunch of Edwards supporters early voted for him)

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

@stephdunke @ImNotOwned @PERHSIHTS @HenryKraemer Supporters defer to their candidate as a default. With Warren, who we all know is very smart, that seemed to especially make sense

It was really on her & her team to figure this all out and act appropriately

Voters vote. That's what we're supposed to do.

3/3

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

@stephdunke @ImNotOwned @PERHSIHTS @HenryKraemer After NV, was clear EW not only wasn't going to be the nominee, but also that she wasn't going to accrue a meaningful number of delegates

After SC, danger of Biden surging back was clear

On E-Day in TX, it was Biden or Sanders

Tho to be fair...

2/3

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

Whoops. Last one.

Under race, I used https://t.co/XAidYCGEh6.% to sort white voters. That doesn't account for how white the CD is, just how educated (and likely to be Dems) its whites are.

Here are the 14 CDs in CA that are majority white:

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

Remember a million years ago when we had very earnest debates over the composition of the major candidates' support? Back before it turned into the Kerry primary?

Well, some data from before the worm turned, perhaps of interest to those familiar with CA's political geography...

[bourbon_dem @DemBourbon]

Of course, none of this matters now and hasn't since the Biden horse really got out of the barn the week after CA…

BUT it's certainly got less of a margin of error than the polls we were looking at, I think

Also, the LAT precinct data was cool: https://t.co/8QHr0dXZeq