Derek Broyhill

market furu // snarky nerd // empathy not envy; excellence not incompetence; accountability not impunity

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@decodejar This confirms that Cost of Production is the primary long term driver of commodity pricing. As miner margins expand, they accept lower prices, driving price down and margins back toward zero. Markets always seek equilibrium in the end.

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@Nebraskangooner @Truecrypto My god that dip to 160 was so glorious

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@FirstSquawk Maybe if they didn’t over engineer their 100 different models in the dumbest way possible and made their cars actually fixable with deep supplies of replacement parts for models going back decades? I mean, let’s make the job actually satisfying again.

[Murray Rothbard @MurraySuggests]

The Iranian navy, which has been destroyed eight times, has apparently closed the Strait of Hormuz again, because the United States, for the seventh time, won the war that wasn’t a war, so now the United States has to open the Strait of Hormuz that was already open before the not-war began.

The not-war began because Iran had uranium that was totally, completely, beautifully obliterated, so they can’t build the nuclear bomb they weren’t building, which is why the United States had to start the not-war it definitely didn’t start.

Now the United States, which has nuclear weapons, is threatening to use nuclear weapons to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons, because nuclear weapons are far too dangerous for countries with nuclear weapons to allow other countries to have.

If the United States saw the United States doing what the United States does in other countries, the United States would invade the United States to liberate the United States from the tyranny of the United States.

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@BullTheoryio @MasterPandaWu Because in a year these chips will be worth a fraction of their cost

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@KTTECHPRIVATE lol boom

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@jackprandelli Unfortunately true. Infrastructure cannot scale fast enough. This bottleneck will require optimization at every point and it still it won’t be enough. Hyper localized deployment of small modular clean water and power solutions are probably where this is going.

[Ricky Ho @rickyho_1989]

Everyone is focusing on the soaring memory cost in the Vera Rubin rack. But the real shocker in this Morgan Stanley slide is actually power, because the industry is now talking about moving from roughly 120kW per rack today toward potentially 600kW per rack by the Vera Rubin Ultra generation in 2027, which is an almost unimaginable escalation in power density within an incredibly short period of time.

To put this into perspective, many traditional enterprise datacenters historically operated at only a few kilowatts per rack, while even modern hyperscale campuses today often consume only tens of megawatts in total facility power draw. But once you begin deploying hundreds or thousands of 600kW AI racks simultaneously, the math becomes almost absurd because a large-scale Vera Rubin Ultra cluster could eventually consume gigawatts of electricity, effectively rivaling the energy demand of a mid-sized city.

And this is where the market still massively underestimates the second-order implications of the AI boom, because the bottleneck is no longer simply semiconductors, GPUs, or memory supply. The bottleneck increasingly becomes electricity itself.

The US power grid can barely keep up with current AI infrastructure demand already, while transmission congestion, transformer shortages, substation constraints, cooling limitations, permitting bottlenecks, and aging grid infrastructure are becoming increasingly visible across major datacenter hubs. Importantly, grid infrastructure cannot scale at semiconductor speed. You can accelerate chip production with enough capital expenditure and engineering talent, but building transmission lines, substations, generation capacity, cooling systems, and interconnection approvals often requires many years due to environmental reviews, local opposition, labor shortages, and physical construction constraints.

This is precisely why we continue believing the AI buildout is not a two-to-three-year investment cycle, but instead a decade-long industrial transformation that increasingly resembles the buildout of railroads, electricity networks, and telecom infrastructure during previous industrial revolutions.

And this is also why energy infrastructure is quietly becoming one of the most important and underappreciated AI trades globally.

The winners are no longer just GPU companies. The winners increasingly include utilities like Constellation Energy and Vistra, nuclear-related plays like Oklo and NuScale Power, gas infrastructure companies like Kinder Morgan and Williams Companies, grid and electrical equipment suppliers like GE Vernova, Eaton, Schneider Electric, and Vertiv, as well as transformer, cooling, and datacenter infrastructure providers that now sit directly inside the physical backbone required to support next-generation compute.

Hyperscalers themselves are starting to understand this reality. Companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are no longer simply software companies buying servers. They are increasingly becoming quasi-energy infrastructure companies because securing long-duration power availability is becoming strategically inseparable from securing compute capacity itself.

That is why nuclear power is quietly returning to the center of the conversation. Hyperscalers may eventually fund or directly partner on nuclear generation projects out of pure necessity because renewable intermittency alone cannot reliably support ultra-high-density AI clusters operating continuously at scale.

In many ways, AI is beginning to collide with physical reality. You cannot run trillion-dollar next-generation compute infrastructure on transmission systems and grid architectures that were largely built decades ago for a completely different industrial era.

The semiconductor story may have started the AI race, but energy infrastructure may ultimately determine who wins it.

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@paxtrader777 Insane

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@psybabble_999 @yunta_tsai New opportunities replace lost ones, or did you miss the point entirely.

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@AslansVoice @QuiverQuant “Phony idealistic bs” but not “a team player.” I’m confused. These things can’t both be true.

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@RoyalWins1 @TonyClimate Centralized compute always disperses as hardware costs sink and software optimizes . It’s a cycle.

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@BullTheoryio

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@TheLongInvest When number go up, “it’s all fundamentals,” but when number go down, “it’s just technicals” lmao

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@Leah742 @cb_doge It’s a path of destruction that eventually infects everything, leading to the collapse of civilization.

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

This new Spotify logo is utter garbage. What in the world.

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

Forest Service literally acting against their own ethos

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

The U.S. Forest Service is spraying glyphosate (Roundup) across tens of thousands of acres of national forests this spring to support commercial timber production.

Following wildfires, forests naturally regenerate with diverse shrubs, wildflowers, and wildlife. However, a recent investigation reveals that the Forest Service and private logging companies are routinely applying the herbicide to eliminate competing native vegetation, favoring commercially valuable species such as Douglas fir and sugar pine.

This practice has created large areas with significantly reduced biodiversity, often described as "dead zones", where insect, bird, and plant populations have sharply declined. Glyphosate, classified by the World Health Organization as a probable human carcinogen, has seen its use in California national forests quintuple over the past two decades, reaching a record 266,000 pounds in 2023.

Local communities, environmental groups, and residents are raising concerns about potential impacts on water quality, endangered species (including salmon and rare foxes), and public health. Critics argue that prioritizing industrial timber production over ecological diversity conflicts with the broader mission of national forests as public lands.

The issue has intensified debates over forest management, balancing economic interests with long-term environmental and community health.

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@TheEXECUTlONER_ He is correct

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@TheLongInvest You mean by next week in this market

[Derek Broyhill @derekbroyhill]

@tpvsean @anytimeFXmetal Many such cases