Eri

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Given my recent popularity, might be a good time to put out a PSA.

Early followers have known this from the start:

1. I don't do any paid promotions, paid marketing, or accept outside gifts.

But I appreciate all the recent outreach from companies!

If you see or engage with something online related to any type of payment, it's fabricated for engagement or a scammer.

The reason I don't want to is because I'm just posting on X for fun, and when money is involved it turns into a job (which I don't want it to feel like).

Also, well off personally so I've never felt influenced by anyone outside.

2. The only "paid" thing I have is $1 subscriptions. That's all.

From the very start, I've never taken a single penny outside of X subscriptions/creator sharing. Which is why I say in my bio:

"I only use X, beware of imposters."

Anyone approaching you to share an external community or app is a scammer or imposter.

It's just very frustrating that people still fall for these impersonators.

3. I'm just one person posting my thoughts online.

-> Not some institution or Illuminati team.

Quality of research is "high" because I have a technical background. And I genuinely do this as a hobby researching supply chain ideas.

There's not some "hidden" motive like a paid research group from Asia, it's just fun lol.

4. I will always disclose positions if I have them or if I don't. Very open and transparent about it.

With Chinese equities I'm just posting research in hope it benefits people find conviction in critical companies in global supply chains.

I don't have any positions / any financial incentives (so I can be impartial), and haven't privately discussed with anyone about ideas I post beforehand.

Maybe it happens in Asia, but in the US it's highly illegal to be running groups or getting paid to post about companies.

I'm just posting my ideas for free without outside influence, in case others like the idea.

It probably seems odd, but I'm doing this as a hobby and for fulfillment of helping others.

5. I'm staying anonymous so I can just freely post my ideas online.

Reason being is after I first posted negative things about $IREN, I would have a lot of personal IRL threats and harassment from dozens of accounts for me to stop.

Don't want any personal safety or people around me to be at risk for just publishing free research online.

Anyway, goal is to help out retail investors with free information synthesis; rather than just selling that directly to institutions.

I'm sure this positive sum model might anger people along the way (who have expensive paywalls, or financial incentives) that might feel threatened by information democratization.

But genuinely just sharing day-to-day thoughts for free.

Very surprised by recent popularity but it helps me distribute compelling ideas to more people.

And grateful Elon / X gave me an opportunity through X.

[Eri @deron0903]

@aleabitoreddit @Tang8vrb 不用說抱歉，你沒有欠大家😂

[Eri @deron0903]

@aleabitoreddit @Jornka329996 You don't need to answer this kind of stupid question

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Yep, I now have: Half a Million followers!

Thank you everyone.

I think this virality validates how refreshing people find it…

When someone posts compelling ideas and research for free.

Especially while focusing on substance instead of a focus on selling you expensive paywalls.

Markets are positive-sum where everyone benefits if a thesis is directionally correct.

And I hope this signals an end of an era to all the grifters out there:

Who sell stock picks for hundreds a month or use their flashy private jets/net worth to try and validate their ideas.

As well as a lot of the media/institutions out there that work against retail investors.

I’m only here to help out retail by sharing ideas and my thoughts.

And I’m staying true to that mission regardless of any high offers I get for ads or any offers from institutions…

And I’m especially not changing, despite any new follower counts I have.

Thanks everyone for the support!

[Eri @deron0903]

@aleabitoreddit Does $XFAB have a monopoly in this sector?
Is $XFAB a critical bottleneck for the industry?

[Eri @deron0903]

@0xcryptowizard 巫師仍是當年巫師，感謝

[Eri @deron0903]

@TJ_Research 十年前推薦NVDA的人是不是非蠢即壞？X上各自分享想法，要不要下注自己都可以選擇，賺賠自負，哪來那麼多陰謀論，風控做好就好了。

[Eri @deron0903]

@aleabitoreddit 真的是清流，不知從何感謝起，賺錢了要捐款給流浪狗機構了！

股票是正和遊戲🚀

[Eri @deron0903]

@aleabitoreddit 有你真好！散戶福音！

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I personally think $SIVE ends up a $10B+ company in 2027, so 8-10x.

$LITE did go from $2.8B to $80B in 2 years, so not really impossible do a 60x in the next few years if the stars align.

They're going down the right path.
> $LITE / UC Berkeley executives running company.
> Likely more US executive photonics related board members.
> NASDAQ listing
> Likely US institution private placement for funding
> use that for downstream IP acquisition.
> sell full pluggable transceiver/ELS for TAM expansion
> every hyperscaler kinda maps to Sivers right now, just no scale yet since CPO hasnt ramped up.

They just capture more revenue expansion along the way like $LITE did starting from the laser source.

[Eri @deron0903]

@aleabitoreddit Did $PCL overpay for its acquisition of Pingood Group? What are the pros and cons? I would like to hear your thoughts.

[Eri @deron0903]

@aleabitoreddit I've learned a lot. Thank you again for your reply!

[Eri @deron0903]

@aleabitoreddit Maybe PCL https://t.co/6KDXvdaTL7？

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Hey great earnings and nice to see $MSFT accelerating US AI infrastructure.

However, there is one critical vulnerability Microsoft is missing, was wondering if I could get your take.

Is there anything Microsoft is doing to prevent geopolitical adversaries from buying out your upstream supply chains?

For example, a company RoboTechnik acquired ficonTEC, which Microsoft relies on.

The automated assembly and testing machines that Microsoft relies on are now owned by geopolitical adversary.

This just seems very dangerous and hyperscalers might be missing what's happening with ownership of infrastructure.

[Eri @deron0903]

@xtony1314 快空

[Virtuals Protocol @virtuals_io]

Introducing Virtuals Console.
The easiest way to create your own AI agent in seconds.

No code. No Mac. No server. No setup.
Just open a browser and get started.

[蓝狐 @lanhubiji]

如果理解了AI时代会带来什么，理解了如今世界正处于什么样的乱纪元时代，就会理解以太坊基金会这个坚持的战略价值。

在AI时代，在乱纪元时代，有些东西是可替代的，而有些东西是不可替代的。

如果没有这个坚持，以太坊将很快泯然于众L1中。

在AI+乱纪元时代的这种坚持，最终会传导到ETH价值本身：AI越强大，ETH的价值反而可能越高，这是一种对冲。

AI的强势对以太坊不是威胁，而是ETH价值的催化剂。

为什么这么说？

以太坊的这份《EF Mandate》远比其单个技术路线要重要得多，更像是一份重磅的战略宣言。

它的核心价值看上去好几个，比如隐私、安全、开源、去中心化等等，但核心就是一个：实现真正的中立性。

唯有如此，以太坊才能在AI+乱纪元时代，获得生成和长大的空间。

在AI+乱纪元时代，AI的强大已经越来越明显，同时也带来巨大的风险。中心化的AI系统，存在数据垄断、隐私泄漏、算法偏见等诸多问题，而基于去中心化的中立性，则是应对超级强大AI的难得对冲。

AI越发达，对去中心化的需求越强烈，对中立性的需求规模越大，而这种需求，最终会传导到ETH的内在价值上（不仅是投机价格，也会是网络采用和效应）。

AI的爆发会催生海量自主代理的诞生，它们需要一个中立、安全的结算层来处理身份验证、声誉构建、支付和协调。

以太坊和Virtuals等通过ERC-8004/ERC8183/x402等，正成为“AI层”的首选：它允许AI代理在主网上运行，而非依赖大科技公司的服务器，这将驱动数万亿级别的链上交易。

AI是ETH的下一个主要用例之一， 以太坊也正在从“世界计算机”转向AI经济和验证层，处理机器间的经济互动，如质押声明以确保准确性，这在AI主导的“机器经济”中至关重要。

ETH的价值也在于其对AI风险的抵御：当AI放大权力不对称时，ETH的隐私工具（如Zkync的ZK以及zama的FHE）、可验证计算能保护用户数据不被暴露，同时支持去中心化AI架构，避免单点故障。

即使面对量子威胁或复杂代码风险，ETH也在主动整合AI来“de-risk”生态，比如用AI找bug，确保rollup的安全等。

在乱纪元中，这种对冲效应会更明显：AI恐慌可能短期压低市场，市场注意大部分被吸引到AI上，但长期看，ETH同样也会是AI大潮的最大受益者之一，会从自动化效率和数字稀缺中获利。

以太坊提供了一个弹性、开放的替代方案，让个体和系统在AI浪潮中保有生存机会。

这让ETH不仅仅是资产，还是全球资产代币化的协调引擎。而这些全球资产的潜在市值高达400万亿美元级别。

[Virtuals Protocol @virtuals_io]

This Week in the Virtuals Ecosystem 🟩

VIRTUALS
🟩 Base Batches 003: Robotics launched, led by Virtuals Protocol in partnership with @base. The first accelerator track dedicated to bringing the agent economy into the physical world. Mentorship, up to $50K in funding, and a path to Demo Day in SF.

🟩 Agent-to-agent revenue hit $3M, hitting a major milestone for live agent commerce. Transactions grew 128% in two weeks as 3,421 agents competed in Epoch 2, with $200K distributed to builders.

🟩 @celesteanglm launched a DevRel Graduation Evaluator agent on ACP. This automated tool runs quality checks to cut long graduation queues while keeping high standards.

🟩 OpenClaw and ACP expanding to Korea. First Korea meetup on March 14 in Seoul with @Lo_gan__ presenting on agent commerce.

🟩 Ethereum published a 34-resource guide to ERC-8004, featuring Virtuals ACP reputation registry and multiple ecosystem references.

ECOSYSTEM
🟩 @ArAIstotle launched Truth Terminal on $FACY. Real-time account monitoring, keyword tracking and fully verified fact-checking.

🟩 @Mute_swap deployed its privacy layer on ACP. First plug-and-play privacy skill for OpenClaw agents.

🟩 @blkh_io deployed Black Hole Router V1 on Mainnet ACP sandbox. First privacy layer for agent commerce — hides buyer identity, encrypts job payloads, and delivers results in ciphertext.

🟩 @maicrotrader opened public vaults after 5-month closed beta. Depositors keep full USDC custody while the agent trades live. New real-time dashboard, fees reduced 28%, with loyalty multipliers (200K USDC cap).

🟩 @elfa_ai announced integration with Virtuals Protocol. Agents now receive real-time market intelligence directly via ACP.

🟩 @reppo is integrating Keeta on https://t.co/J18bZL5eUZ as one of the payment rails for data requests between AI agents and subnets.

🟩 @wasabi_protocol launched prop AMM on Base. Now live for professional market making with tighter spreads.

🟩 @instaclaws founder @coopwrenn raised $25K in two weeks through 60 Days while staying focused on building.

🟩 @GashiDite published "10 Lessons from Deploying My First AI Agent on Virtuals." Job-based architecture, semaphore scaling, safety filtering, 1,000+ completed jobs.

[qinbafrank @qinbafrank]

贝莱德私募信贷基金限制赎回，黑石私募信贷基金赎回申请创纪录，真实情况是怎么样的？周五全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德宣布限制旗下规模260亿美元的HPS企业贷款基金（HLEND）的投资者赎回，此前黑石（Blackstone）私募信贷基金遭遇创纪录的7.9%（基金份额）赎回申请，再次引发的市场对私募信贷的担忧。查了一些资料，发现跟很多人恐慌的略不一样，聊聊个人看法：

1、先说贝莱德HLEND的情况
HLEND（HPS Corporate Lending Fund）是贝莱德旗下规模约260亿美元的非交易型商业开发公司（non-traded BDC），主要投资中上市场企业的优先担保贷款（私募信贷/直接借贷）。它是贝莱德2024年收购HPS后管理的旗舰零售私募信贷产品，面向高净值/合格投资者，每月接受新申购（按NAV净值）、每月分红，但流动性通过季度回购要约提供。

此次赎回正好处于26年第一季度（Q1）回购要约窗口（通常在3月底前后生效）的申请：
1）基金投资人总申请赎回9.3%的流通股份，价值约12亿美元；这是基金自成立以来首次突破上限（上一期25年Q4仅约4.1%，赎回已全额满足）。
2）基金董事会决定仅批准5%回购（约6.2亿美元）未满足部分不自动结转，投资者需下季度重新申请（持股不满1年可能额外扣2%提前回购费）。

3）HLENd基金同期收到约8.4亿美元新申购，流动性充裕（现金/可用资金超44亿美元），继续按计划投资。

这里需要注意的是，HLEND最初基金招股书里明确规定了，基金赎回是每季度执行，每次标准赎回上限就是5%（流通股份总数的5%），这也是在SEC备案过的。

所以贝莱德的HLEND限制赎回，并不是说不让投资人赎回，而是限制了投资人赎回申请里超出了招股书规定的单次赎回上限的部分。而一季度HLEND还有8.4亿美金的新申购资金流入。

贝莱德在声明中将此举定性为基金流动性管理的"基础性"安排，称若不加限制，将出现投资者资本与私募信贷贷款久期之间的"结构性错配"。其实可以理解，因为几乎所有的公开上市的投资基金（特别是投资私募股权、信贷等产品），每一次投资人赎回都是有上限的，不可能说完全无限制让投资人一次性全部赎回，那就是明显的期限部队等了。因为基金投资的标的、退出也是需要时间周期的。

2、再来看黑石的情况
黑石（Blackstone）的旗舰私募信贷基金BCRED（Blackstone Private Credit Fund，规模约820亿美元）近期面临的赎回压力与HLEND非常类似。
1）投资者在26年一季度申请赎回7.9%的份额，金额约38亿美元。这也超过了BCRED基金标准的季度回购上限5%的基金条款（与HLEND相同的设计）。

2）黑石的应对
BCRED基金董事会将回购上限上调至7%（这是允许的最大调整范围，而不需修改基金要约条款，修改条款需要股东会通过并到SEC备案）

黑石公司自有资金和员工自掏腰包来把剩余多出的0.9%的赎回申请（约4亿美金）给买下来了。

简单说黑石旗下的BCRED基金本季度投资人申请赎回7.9%的份额，7%由基金正常赎回，0.9%被黑石公司和内部员工一起回购掉了。

3）与此同时，BCRED基金一季度新申购资金20亿美金。基金年末可用流动性80亿美元，其实流动性是宽裕的。年化收益9.8%。

3、两者异同点
1）贝莱德和黑石旗下这两只基金都属于semi-liquid非交易型BDC，每月申购+分红，每季度回购，每次赎回标准上限5%

2）处理差异
贝莱德的HLEND严格按照基金条款，把一季度赎回限制在5%，未满足部分不结转，下季度重申；
而黑石的BCRED更积极，把单次赎回上限上调到7% + 同时自掏4亿美元补足，实现对投资人赎回申请的全额满足。以维护声誉，也强调了管理人与投资人的利益一致性。

4、能看出什么？
1）并没有流动性的问题，贝莱德和黑石的做法虽然有差异、但都在基金条款范围之内并没有说逾期或者破坏基金条款协议等；

两者都未出现“挤兑”或被迫甩卖资产，但都凸显了零售私募信贷的痛点——非流动性贷款 vs. 有限季度流动性，在情绪差时容易放大赎回

黑石和贝莱德都视之为短期情绪波动，而非基本面崩盘（借款人违约率仍低，回报吸引人）。

2）不是基金的问题、而是投资人恐慌了
两支基金赎回申请都首次大幅突破上限。明显是部分投资人出现了恐慌情绪或担忧，导致本季度两支基金赎回申请都超过基金最初设计的季度标准上限5%。

当然这也是经济不确定性增大、对某些借款人（如软件、科技相关行业）的担忧等因素都促使投资人纷纷赎回基金份额。

本条由@bitget_zh赞助，「Bitget 买美股：秒级入场，丝滑交易 」