Devarsh Vakil

Head of Prime Research - @hdfcsec|Lifelong Student of the Markets|Research Analyst/Educator/Market Commentator|Rooting for Individual Investors|Views personal

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*A Trillion-Dollar Selloff*

Wall Street experienced *a significant downturn* as the tech-heavy *Nasdaq plunged 4.18%*, marking its *steepest single-day decline since early 2025*. This selloff was primarily driven by heavy losses in the semiconductor industry, with major players like Nvidia and Micron seeing sharp drops following a robust May jobs report that increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Friday's market rout erased $1.4 trillion in S&P 500 value, triggered by Broadcom's disappointing AI revenue guidance and a strong May jobs report that reignited fears of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

*SpaceX plans to raise at least $75 billion by selling over 555 million shares at $135 apiece, setting a valuation of over $1.75 trillion in what would be one of the largest IPOs in history. Demand for SpaceX shares has triggered significant selling across other equities as retail and institutional buyers raise cash.*

The 2-year Treasury yield reached 4.17%, its highest level since February 2025, while the 10-year yield rose to approximately 4.55% as investors reacted to a hot labor market report. This surge reflects growing market consensus that persistent inflation and economic resilience may force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish monetary stance through the remainder of the year.

*Asian markets tumbled sharply on Monday, with South Korea's chip-heavy KOSPI dropping 8% and triggering a 20-minute trading halt before recovering intraday to 4.5% losees, while Japan's Nikkei fell 3.5% in today's trade.*

*Global oil prices* climbed on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, with Brent crude trading near $96 per barrel as missile exchanges threatened to unravel a fragile ceasefire and stoke supply disruptions. Prices surged further after Iran launched multiple missile waves at Israel following renewed Israeli airstrikes on Beirut.

*OPEC+* on Sunday agreed to lift *output targets* by 188,000 bpd from July — its fourth straight monthly increase — but the move is largely symbolic. Gulf state export restrictions have gutted actual production, with April output collapsing to 33.19 million bpd from 42.77 million bpd in February.

*India's GDP* grew 7.8% in Q4 FY26 (January-March 2026), beating expectations. The full-year FY26 growth came in at 7.7%, up from 7.1% in FY25 and slightly above the government's earlier forecast of 7.6%. Growth was driven by strong manufacturing, services, consumption, and investment, though agriculture slowed. The RBI has since cut its FY27 growth forecast from 6.9% to 6.6%, citing geopolitical tensions and monsoon uncertainties.

The *RBI's MPC* announced on Friday that the repo rate will remain unchanged at 5.25% for the third consecutive meeting, maintaining the "neutral" policy stance. The committee raised India's CPI inflation projection for FY27 to 5.1% from 4.6%, while lowering the FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.9%, amid concerns over the Middle East conflict and rising crude oil prices.

The Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate continues at 5%, with MSF rate and Bank Rate unchanged at 5.5%, ensuring liquidity management remains aligned with the monetary framework. The MPC voted unanimously for the status quo on rates, citing the weakening rupee, geopolitical risks to economic growth, and the need to monitor inflation dynamics more closely before considering any further rate adjustments. Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasised India's resilience against global economic shocks while maintaining confidence in price stability and supporting sustainable growth in the coming quarters.

*Nifty* has been consolidating in a narrow range, indicating a lower-range consolidation. The index remains below key moving averages, maintaining a bearish bias.
Near-term support lies in the *23,000-23,100* band, while immediate resistance is placed at 23,557.

*Indian markets are poised to open sharply lower on the back of weak global cues.*

*Devarsh Vakil (HSL Prime Research)*

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary*

*U.S. Markets Snap Record Run Amid Iran Tensions*

U.S. equity markets *ended a multi-session streak of record highs* yesterday, as escalating U.S.–Iran hostilities curbed risk appetite. The *Dow shed over 600 points*, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both pulled back from all-time highs set the prior session.

The S&P 500 declined 0.74% to close at 7,553, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.89% to 26,854. Rising oil prices, Middle East uncertainty, tech-sector dilution concerns, and mixed earnings reactions collectively weighed on sentiment, triggering a broad wave of profit-taking.

*Alphabet — Google's parent* — slipped after expanding its AI infrastructure equity offering to *$84.75 billion* — up from an initial $80 billion — including a *$10 billion* private placement with Berkshire Hathaway. Investors raised concerns about shareholder dilution and the near-term cash flow impact of heavy AI and cloud spending.

Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year note climbing to nearly 4.50%. The move was driven by *ADP private payroll data* showing the strongest job growth since early 2025, alongside fears that elevated energy costs could keep inflation persistently high.

*Bitcoin* fell for a fourth consecutive session, at *its lowest level since February*. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest monthly net outflows of the year in May, with redemptions continuing into early June. The broader crypto retreat reflects a rotation into AI-related equities and IPO plays.

Geopolitical risk remained front of mind as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel and the United States were prepared to strike Iran again if necessary, reinforcing investor concern that prolonged conflict could keep energy prices and inflation elevated.

*Asian markets also retreated*. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 1.74% — reversing the prior session's record high — while the Topix declined 1.09%. South Korea's Kospi fell 1.25%, though the small-cap Kosdaq surged 3.83% as trading resumed following a public holiday.

The *Indian rupee extended its losing streak* for the second consecutive session yesterday, depreciating by 44 paise to close at 95.70 against the US dollar. The currency remained under pressure due to persistent capital outflows, concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals, and rising crude oil prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

In Indian markets, *buying interest* emerged in the *second half* of yesterday's session, triggering a *sharp intraday recovery* of over 300 points from intraday lows. The Nifty ultimately closed at *23,405*, down 78 points. Yesterday's low of *23,151* is likely to serve as a crucial support level. *23,800* is the key resistance zone to watch on the upside.

*Indian markets are poised to open subdued on weak global cues.*

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary*

*Markets Navigate AI Optimism and Middle East Tensions, Global AI Rally Lifts Nifty IT*

Major U.S. stock indexes - the *S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq* — notched *record highs* for a *fifth consecutive session*, marking the longest such streak since 2017, driven by sustained investor enthusiasm for *artificial intelligence infrastructure* and *semiconductors*.

The S&P 500 edged up 0.13% to close at 7,609.78, extending its longest winning streak in over a year. The Nasdaq Composite advanced modestly in tandem, lifted by chipmaker outperformance and persistent appetite for AI-driven growth — even as geopolitical tensions exerted a countervailing drag.

*Alphabet fell nearly 4%* after announcing plans to raise *$80 billion* through equity issuance to fund its *AI buildout*, which targets up to *$190 billion in capital expenditures for 2026*. The raise includes a *$10 billion* commitment from *Berkshire Hathaway*.

*Infrastructure* optimism fueled broad gains across the semiconductor sector: Texas Instruments rose 4%, Broadcom rose 5.2%, Monolithic Power rose 5.36%, and Microchip rose 5.94%. Texas Instruments stands out as the year-to-date leader in the space — up 76% versus Nvidia's 19% — powered by a 90% year-over-year surge in data center revenue in Q1.

*Marvell Technology* surged *over 30%* after Nvidia's CEO suggested the company could become the next *trillion-dollar* chipmaker. Hewlett Packard Enterprise gained 19% following strong earnings and an acceleration of its long-term financial targets, underpinned by robust demand for AI servers.

U.S. Central Command confirmed Tuesday that it intercepted *multiple Iranian ballistic missiles* and drones and launched defensive strikes in response to what it described as attempted attacks — the latest exchange threatening an already fragile regional ceasefire.

*Bitcoin tumbled more than 5%*, falling through the $70,000 and $68,000 support levels to its lowest price since April. The sell-off was triggered by Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosing an unusual bitcoin sale, which cascaded into broader weakness across digital assets, including Ethereum and Solana.

*Oil prices* continued to climb as Iranian missile activity and contradictory signals from U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks sustained a geopolitical risk premium in energy markets. Uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by declining U.S. crude inventories, reinforced supply-tightening concerns.

*Asia-Pacific* markets opened *broadly higher* today, with Japan’s *Nikkei 225 hitting a record high*, as investors appeared to look past uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations aimed at ending the Middle East conflict.

*The rupee* began the month on a subdued note but weakened as the session progressed, pressured by rising crude oil prices, geopolitical concerns, and persistent foreign capital outflows. After opening lower, the currency continued to decline and settled near its intraday low, reflecting sustained dollar demand from importers.

*Nifty snapped its four-day losing streak*, gaining 100 points to close at 23,483 yesterday. The Nifty IT index surged over 4%, marking its largest single-day rally of the year. Nifty briefly breached the swing low of 23,262 but managed to hold above the lower band of the April 8 upward gap at 23,153. The index also sustained above the key support level of 23,106. Yesterday's low of *23229* now serves as an important support. A decisive trend reversal would require a close above *23,800*.

*Indian markets are poised to open subdued on higher crude oil prices*

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*HSL Prime Research*

*Deal Optimism Lifts Markets, but Fresh Strikes Cloud the Outlook*

Iran's top negotiator and foreign minister travelled to Doha for talks with Qatar's prime minister on a potential agreement to end the war, even as Washington and Tehran both played down hopes for an imminent breakthrough.

Investor optimism over a U.S.-Iran peace deal was tempered by fresh U.S. strikes in the Middle East.

U.S. Central Command said the strikes were intended to *protect the troops from threats posed by Iranian forces*, as President Trump continued pressing for a regional peace deal. Trump also urged Arab nations to sign the *Abraham Accords*, which would normalise relations with *Israel*.

On Monday, stocks surged while the *dollar and oil prices fell as optimism* about a deal lifted risk appetite. *Brent crude* dropped to around $95 a barrel amid signs of a potential ceasefire and hopes of restored flows through the Strait of Hormuz, though some investors cautioned that a finalised agreement could take time.

*Foreign ministers from Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S. are set to meet in New Delhi to reinvigorate the Indo-Pacific grouping known as the Quad.*

The *European Commission cut its 2026 Eurozone growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.2%*, citing fallout from the Middle East conflict, while revising its inflation projection upward to 3.0% due to soaring energy costs.

Indian equities staged *a sharp recovery* on May 25, with the Nifty surging over 300 points past the key 24,000 level, lifted by improved global risk appetite on reports of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks.

*The rupee also rebounded*, strengthening toward the month-end after touching a historic intraday low of 96.6 against the dollar. The currency has been under sustained pressure in 2026 — weighed down by elevated crude prices and foreign outflows — but the shift in Middle East diplomatic sentiment has offered meaningful relief.

Nifty's decisive close above *23,800* marks a breakout from its consolidation range. The next resistance levels sit at *24,370* and *24,600*, while 23,800 now flips to immediate support.

*Indian markets are set to open flat, with U.S. markets closed yesterday leaving little in the way of global cues.*

*Price action over the next two sessions will largely be shaped by derivative expiries — NSE today and BSE tomorrow — before markets shut for a holiday on Thursday. Expect broad consolidation following yesterday's surge.*

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*HSL Prime Research*

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary*

*Dow Scales New Heights Amid Crude Swings*

The Dow closed at a *new record* of 50285, gaining 0.6% after erasing early losses. This rally followed a sharp midday reversal in oil prices, with Brent crude falling over 2% as investors grew hopeful about *progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations*.

Shares in the *quantum computing* sector soared after reports emerged of a $2 billion U.S. government funding plan to boost the industry.

The Commerce Department announced *$2 billion in funding* allocated to nine quantum computing companies, including *IBM, Rigetti, and GlobalFoundries*, with the U.S. government taking *equity stakes* in return. The move signals a major federal commitment to next-generation computing infrastructure.

*NVIDIA* shares declined nearly 2% despite the company reporting better-than-expected first-quarter results and issuing a rosy revenue outlook. Investors appeared cautious about the *sustainability of its rapid growth* amid intensifying competition in the AI chip market and a broader cooling of the recent artificial intelligence stock boom.

*Walmart* reported impressive sales and profit growth, yet shares fell as investors fretted over the retailer's warning that rising fuel costs and a 3.8% inflation rate — outpacing wages for the first time — could pressure price-conscious consumers. The ongoing Iran conflict's impact on energy and supply chain costs added to the cautious outlook.

*Yields* on the 10-year Treasury note *slipped to 4.56%* on Thursday, pulling back from recent highs that reached their most elevated levels since early 2025. The decline in yields was closely linked to the retreat in oil prices, providing relief to smaller companies in the Russell 2000, which outpaced major indexes with a 0.9% gain.

*Oil prices resumed their rally* after declining for three straight sessions as investors remained *sceptical about a breakthrough* in US-Iran peace talks, with *Iran's Supreme Leader earlier forbidding uranium removal*. While statements from the U.S. had signalled the peace deal was imminent, the Iranian leadership’s reported stance of keeping enriched uranium within their country has raised worries of an extended conflict, keeping oil supplies disrupted for longer.

*Asia-Pacific* markets opened *higher* Friday as investors assessed U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts at reaching a peace deal in the Middle East.

Over the last six trading sessions, *Nifty* has slipped into *an alternating pattern of one session of gains* followed by one of losses. *Nifty* opened 171 points higher on the back of strong global cues, touched its intraday peak of 23859 within the first few minutes, but failed to sustain momentum and reversed sharply. It declined more than 260 points from the high and eventually closed at 23654, down 4 points yesterday.

*Immediate support is now seen near 23,400. On the upside, a decisive close above 23,800 could trigger a pullback towards 24016.*

*Indian markets are poised to open mildly higher on conducive global cues.*

*Devarsh Vakil (HSL Prime Research)*

[ANI @ANI]

#WATCH | Mumbai, Maharashtra: On a decline in India’s forex reserves, Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities, says, "RBI has been actively selling dollars to shield the rupee from unwarranted volatility... That's why our forex reserves are falling and have dropped around 5% from $738 billion to $690 billion... This is not very alarming. We have comfortable forex reserves. In the past, we have seen even more dire situations... I think these forex reserves are comfortable for 8 months of import cover..."

On PM Modi's appeal, he says, "...This is to help our economy remain strong, and before it becomes a concern or a crisis, the PM has alerted citizens towards keeping some forex restraint. I think it will work in the short term. For the longer term, we will have to wait for the global geopolitical crisis to come down, and that will help the currency appreciate afterwards."

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

Pick of The Week - Tata Consumer :
https://t.co/4rX1yZFL0H

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*Global Markets Retreat As Inflation Pressures Resurface*

U.S. equities endured a *volatile* last week. *AI-driven optimism* lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs early on, but a barrage of hot inflation data and escalating geopolitical anxiety triggered a sharp *global sell-off on Friday*, erasing nearly all weekly gains.

The week's defining catalyst was a troubling *inflation resurgence*. April CPI climbed 0.6% month-over-month, lifting the annual rate to 3.8% — the highest since May 2023. More alarming was the PPI print: wholesale prices surged 1.4% in April, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, pushing annual producer inflation to 6.0% — a level unseen since December 2022.

The *bond sell-off* accelerated sharply. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.59%, up from below 4.00% as recently as late February. The 2-year yield settled at 4.08%, while the 30-year reached 5.12% — its highest level since 2007.

Markets have abandoned hopes for near-term cuts. Rate futures now imply roughly *a 50% probability of a quarter- or half-point hike by December*, with a ~49% chance of rates holding and less than 1% pricing in a cut.

The nearly complete *US Q1 earnings season has been robust*. S&P 500 companies are on pace for revenue growth of 11.4% — the strongest since Q2 2022 — and earnings growth of 27.7%, the best since Q4 2021.

The *Indian equity market* also faced steep *volatility* during the last week, resuming its downward trajectory as global and domestic macro headwinds dented investor sentiment.

The primary market trigger was a *sharp escalation in US-Iran hostilities*, which drove Brent crude prices past the $100 per barrel mark. For import-dependent India, surging oil prices reignited structural inflation fears.

This macro strain immediately hit the currency market, forcing the *Indian Rupee to a fresh historic low of over Rs 96* against the US dollar.

A hotter-than-expected *US inflation print (both CPI and PPI)* fueled global anxieties that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates higher for longer, triggering a global risk-off environment that hit emerging markets hard.

The Sensex settled 2.7% down while the Nifty shed 2.2% last week. The BSE 150 Mid-Cap index declined 2.65% and the BSE 250 Small-Cap dropped 3.81%.

Nifty is consolidating in a broad range between *23850 to 23250* range. A decisive breakout above *23850* level is needed to revive bullish momentum in the market. On the downside, the swing low of *23,262* continues to act as support for the index.

Indian markets are poised to open 100 points lower from Friday's close near 23550 levels.

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

Looking to invest in mid, smallcap stocks? Here are 5 risks to watch for.

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[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary*

*US Markets Retreat as Hormuz Tensions Push Crude Higher*

*American forces struck Iranian military facilities* responsible for attacks on warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, adding that US forces "do not seek escalation."

*Oil resumed its rally* Friday after US and Iranian forces exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears that a fragile ceasefire was unravelling and threatening further disruption to one of the world's most critical shipping lanes.

The military exchanges injected *fresh uncertainty* into global markets, with crude jumping roughly 2% in after-hours trading amid revived concerns over energy supply stability and inflation.

US equities retreated with the *S&P 500* falling 0.38% to 7,337.11 and *the Dow* shedding 313 points to 49,596.97 — though both indexes remain well above year-ago levels following April's record monthly advance. Losses were driven by a cooldown in technology stocks, with the *Dow* slipping more than 0.6% after failing to *breach the 50,000* threshold.

*Broadcom* shares dropped 4% after reports emerged that its landmark *$18 billion AI chip deal* with OpenAI is facing a major financing hurdle, contingent on Microsoft committing to purchase roughly 40% of the chips. Should Microsoft decline, the financing terms for the project would need to be renegotiated, casting doubt over the timeline of the high-profile partnership.

While long-term appetite for artificial intelligence remains robust, semiconductor firms like *Intel* and *Advanced Micro Devices* faced *significant pressure*, with some shares falling roughly 3%. This retreat follows a period of strong quarterly gains, as investors begin to weigh lofty valuations against actual earnings performance.

The *Indian rupee* strengthened for the second consecutive session yesterday, appreciating by 36 paise to close at 94.25, supported by gains in Asian currencies. Support came from short covering and steady dollar inflows through domestic banks.

*Nifty* extended its *alternating trend of gains and losses*, slipping marginally by 4 points to settle at *24,326*. Despite the profit booking during the second half, the broader technical structure remains intact, with the *index sustaining the uptrend*. Immediate support is at the *24,000* level, while resistance is near *24,600*.

*Indian markets are likely to open lower on weak global cues.*

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary*

*Iran Ceasefire Hopes, AI Momentum Power Markets Higher*

The United States and Iran are reportedly nearing *a preliminary agreement to end hostilities* and resume diplomatic engagement, with Washington expecting Tehran's response on key issues within 48 hours — though officials stress no final deal has been reached. According to news reports, the two sides are close to *a memorandum of understanding* that would halt the conflict and establish a framework for further negotiations.

President Trump warned that a failure to agree would result in Iran being *bombed at a much higher level and intensity than before.* Markets responded to the developments — *oil prices eased* while U.S. and Asian equities rose.

U.S. equity markets surged to *fresh records*, driven by optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, momentum in the AI sector, and falling oil prices. The S&P 500 rose 1.46% to 7365, the Dow gained 612 points (1.24%) to 49910, and the Nasdaq climbed over 2% — with the Nasdaq 100 touching 28599 — reflecting broad market conviction.

Technology led the rally, with *Nvidia surging 5.68%* and *Microsoft* posting notable gains, alongside broader strength in AI and semiconductors. *Advanced Micro Devices* was the standout performer, jumping over 18% on the back of blowout earnings and strong AI-driven guidance. Underlining the sector's supply constraints, *Micron Technology* disclosed that its entire 2026 production capacity for high-bandwidth memory chips is already sold out.

*Crude oil futures plunged* as diplomatic progress raised prospects of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, pulling Brent crude toward $97 per barrel — a significant relief after Middle Eastern conflict had driven retail gas prices above $4.50 per gallon. The fall proved short-lived, however, as oil rebounded amid renewed uncertainty over U.S.-Iran relations. President Trump intensified pressure on Tehran, warning that Iran would be struck "at a much higher level" if it rejected a peace deal, keeping investors on edge as diplomatic developments continued to whipsaw energy markets.

*Washington and Beijing* are considering launching formal discussions on artificial intelligence, according to reports. AI is also expected to feature prominently during a potential summit next week in Beijing between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

In *Japan*, minutes from the Bank of Japan’s March meeting showed that several board members favoured additional rate hikes if the Iran war-driven energy shock persists and fuels broader inflationary pressures.

The *Indian rupee* registered its largest single-day gain since April 2, appreciating by 67 paise. The move was supported by a decline in crude oil prices and weakness in the US dollar against major currencies. Central bank intervention and risk-averse sentiment further aided the currency. Markets are increasingly factoring in a potential de-escalation of geopolitical tensions and easing supply constraints, which have weighed on both crude prices and the dollar.

*Nifty* continued its recent pattern of *alternating gains and losses*, but yesterday’s move stood out, as it marked a bullish *breakout from the consolidation seen over the past seven trading sessions*. The rally was broad-based with a *strong advance-decline ratio*, effectively reclaiming crucial psychological levels for the benchmarks.

Nifty ended the day at *24330*, up nearly 300 points. Next resistance for the index is seen at *24600*, which is a swing high, while immediate support has shifted higher to *24,000*.

*Indian markets are likely to open flat on mixed market cues.*

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*Strong Corporate Earnings and Drop in Crude Oil Prices Drive Wall Street to Record Highs*

U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. would *pause operations* aimed at restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, signalling that *a deal with Iran could be nearing*. However, the naval blockade against Iran will remain in place.

*Oil prices* fell after President Trump signalled a pause in the U.S. operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, *raising hopes for a possible diplomatic deal with Iran.*

U.S. equity markets rallied on Tuesday, with the *S&P 500* and *Nasdaq* Composite both *closing at all-time highs*. Investor sentiment was bolstered by a 4% decline in Brent crude oil prices, allowing the market to pivot from geopolitical concerns to strong corporate performance.

The S&P 500 rose 0.81%, hitting a new all-time high and closing at a record of 7259. The Nasdaq gained 1.03%, touching a new high and closing at a record 25,326. The Dow added 356 points, or 0.73%, to end at 49298.

The *chipmaking* industry provided a significant lift to broader benchmarks, driven by *Micron*'s double-digit surge following the launch of high-capacity storage products. Additional strength came from *Intel hitting an all-time high*. *Advanced Micro Devices* reported Q1 earnings and guidance that topped Wall Street estimates, driven by a 57% surge in data centre revenue as demand for AI infrastructure accelerated.

*Alphabet* shares rose 2% in after-hours trading following reports that AI startup Anthropic committed to a massive spending deal on Google Cloud infrastructure. The news reinforced Alphabet's position as a key player in the AI cloud arms race, complementing broader strength in the tech sector.

Approximately 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported their first-quarter results, with an impressive 84% exceeding earnings estimates. This performance is notably higher than long-term averages, with mega-cap technology firms like Alphabet and Amazon contributing significantly to the index's growth rate.

The blended yoy earnings *growth rate* for Q1 2026 reached *27.1%* as the quarter progressed, a sharp increase from the initial estimate of 13.1% at the start. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.

The U.S. labour market showed signs of recovery. *Job openings eased* marginally in March, but hiring rose sharply to 5.55 million, the highest level since February 2024, indicating improving labour demand.

U.S. *services activity slowed* modestly in April, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI easing to 53.6 from 54.0 in March, as businesses continued to flag concerns around rising energy-related costs.

The *Asian indices opened higher* today, tracking Wall Street gains overnight after oil prices dropped and strong earnings lifted investor sentiment. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 4.50% to scale a new peak, building on its more than 70% gains this year so far.

The *Indian rupee weakened further*, hitting a fresh record low amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, raising concerns about a global inflationary surge. Elevated crude oil prices, coupled with risk aversion, have intensified fears of a widening Balance of Payments deficit. Persistent capital outflows and a cautious central bank stance have added to the pressure.

The *Union Cabinet cleared an emergency credit guarantee scheme* for aviation and MSMEs, along with a higher sugarcane price for 2026–27 and a ₹5,659 crore cotton productivity mission. The scheme provides additional working capital support, backed by government guarantees through the National Credit Guarantee Trustee Company Limited.

*Nifty* extended its alternating pattern of one-day gains followed by declines, slipping 86 points to close at *24032* after yesterday’s up move

Nifty has been *consolidating* around 24180 over the *past six trading sessions*. Immediate support remains at *23800*, while *24334* and *24600* are likely to act as short-term resistance levels.

*Indian markets are likely to open higher on strong US and Asian market cues.*

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*Markets brace for Mag 7 Earnings, higher Oil prices & Fed interest rates deliberations*

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at *fresh records* on April 27, lifted by Nvidia and Alphabet, though the Dow logged a third straight loss. Consumer staples and discretionary shares lagged; Domino's Pizza was among the session's worst performers after cutting its U.S. same-store sales outlook and reporting a Q1 revenue decline.

A data-heavy week features *Q1 earnings from five of the Magnificent Seven — including Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple* — representing a combined ~$18.59 trillion in market cap. Visa, Coca-Cola, and roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies also report.

The *FOMC* meets April 28–29 (decision Wednesday), with rates widely expected on hold amid ongoing debate over Fed Chair succession, as Kevin Warsh pursues Senate confirmation to succeed Jerome Powell. Key macro releases include Q1 GDP (advance), Core PCE, durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and housing starts. The Bank of England also decides this week.

*Brent crude* approached $108/bbl; WTI traded above $96. Iran's near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced daily transits to near zero, choking roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows and stoking inflation fears.

Iran has offered to reopen the strait contingent on the U.S. lifting its blockade — a proposal President Trump is unlikely to accept without a halt to Iran's nuclear programme.

*Cancellation of high-level diplomatic visits further dimmed prospects for a near-term resolution.*

Nvidia and Qualcomm outperformed on continued enthusiasm around AI infrastructure buildout, new AI chip collaborations, and record chip-sector valuations.

*Nifty 50* snapped a three-session losing streak, gaining 194 points to close at 24,092.

Immediate support sits at *23,800*; resistances are placed at 24,200 and 24,310.

GIFT Nifty is suggesting *a cautious open* on today's April F&O expiry.

*Devarsh Vakil (HSL Prime Research)*

[ANI @ANI]

#WATCH | Mumbai: On US President Trump's Address to the Nation on Iran war & its potential impact on Indian market, Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research, HDFC Securities says, "...He declared that the US military objectives are nearly complete but it will take about 2-3 weeks. Assuming that what he has started to achieve, he will try to finish that in next 2-3 weeks. So, that had an impact on energy, crude oil prices jumped 4%...Asian as well as Indian markets are trading down. Escalating hostilities have again put geopolitics at the forefront of the markets...Investors are unsettled and because of that, we are seeing selling across the asset classes. Energy is the most immediate means of transmission...We are a crude-importing nation. So, that is the main vulnerability for Indian economy. I think because of this input cost to the economy and in a macro sense, the current account deficit will widen and that is putting pressure on domestic inflation...The Strait of Hormuz disruption is one of the most significant shocks to the global economy in recent times...Investors who are waiting for valuations to come down, who are waiting for the goods entry point, I think now there is an opportunity to accumulate quality ideas because valuations have come down. Before this war started, we were assuming about around 16% earning growth. Now those earning growth will be downgraded but we assume that it will be around 12% or so. Assuming 12% of growth, we are now trading quite attractively and next year building around 17-18 times forward earnings. Assuming that these hostilities do get over in next 2-3 weeks, we will expect crude oil prices to come down and the resumption of trade through Hormuz will start. Once that happens, there will be less pressure on Rupee..."

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary*

*Beginning of the End of War?*

*Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu* said that Israel is supporting U.S. efforts *to reopen the Strait*, would not strike Iranian oil and gas targets again, and that the war could end *sooner than expected.*

His *"verge of victory"* remarks lifted risk assets as markets priced in a shorter conflict — though *volatility persisted*, with reports of renewed Iranian missile launches emerging even as he spoke.

U.S. stocks *closed lower* on Thursday, but *recovered sharply from session lows* following Israel's pledge to halt strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and President Trump's confirmation that there would be no ground troop deployments. Equity futures edged higher Thursday night on the back of Netanyahu's remarks.

*U.S. oil prices* extended their decline after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled that Washington may soon lift sanctions on Iranian crude held aboard tankers, aiming to relieve price pressures following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

In a joint statement, the *U.S., Britain, Canada, France, Germany, and Japan* affirmed their readiness to help ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets remained under pressure as investors weighed *a hawkish Federal Reserve* against ongoing tensions in the Gulf region. Assets sold off broadly — bonds, equities, and metals — as tit-for-tat strikes on regional energy infrastructure drove prices sharply higher.

After three sessions of pullback, the Nifty resumed its downtrend, *plunging 775 points* (3.26%) to close at 23002 yesterday — its steepest single-session drop in percentage terms since April 7, 2025.

*As anticipated in yesterday's commentary, the Nifty found support at the lower end of the 22,923–23,207 band — and is now poised to rebound toward the upper end today.*

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary*

*Escalating Middle East Tensions, Stagflation Fears Grips Global Markets*

*Crude Oil surged* after Iran struck Middle East energy facilities in retaliation for an Israeli attack on South Pars gas field.

*Iran declared Gulf energy assets "legitimate targets," pushing Brent well past $110/bbl, WTI near to ~$100/bbl, and U.S. natural gas up ~5%.*

Elevated risk premia threaten sustained imported inflation, wider current account deficits in energy importers like India, and cross-asset volatility.

*A 60-day Jones Act waiver was announced to ease domestic fuel movement, though its global impact is limited.*

*Iranian missiles caused "extensive damage" at Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City. Saudi Arabia intercepted four ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh and neutralized a drone attack on an eastern gas facility.*

*U.S. stock benchmarks closed at their lowest levels of 2026* on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged over 750 points, as investors digested the Fed's revised inflation projections and hawkish tone. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 1.4% and 1.5% respectively, wiping out the week's earlier gains.

Global equities extended their decline, with rising crude prices and a U.S. inflation reading adding further pressure.

*The U.S. Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, projecting higher inflation, stable unemployment, and a single rate cut this year — an outlook Fed Chair Jerome Powell called subject to "unusually high uncertainty" amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.*

Following an 11-1 vote to maintain the benchmark rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range, Powell acknowledged that inflation progress has been slower than expected.The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections signalled just a quarter-point rate cut by year-end — with no indication of timing — while its year-end inflation forecast was revised up to 2.7% from 2.4% in December.The Bank of Canada similarly held rates, with both central banks signalling vigilance against an energy-driven inflation resurgence.

US Treasury yields spiked, 10-year to 4.256%, 2-year to 3.741%, on a hot PPI print and hawkish Fed signals, sharpening stagflation concerns.

*The Indian rupee hit a record low, breaching 92.50 amid thin dollar liquidity ahead of a bank holiday today. Aggressive importer demand triggered a sharp sell-off.*

*Indian markets are set to open sharply lower today, pressured by escalating tensions in West Asia and surging Brent crude prices amid supply disruption fears. The Fed's hawkish stance in its latest meeting, indicating fewer rate cuts, adds to the global risk-off sentiment, dragging down equities.*

*Amid the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, President Trump has directed Israel to halt further strikes on Iranian on the South Pars gas field. Any signs of de-escalation in the West Asian crisis could help cushion the impact on global equity markets.*

*The Nifty drew support from the gap band of 22,923–23,207 earlier this week, and that same zone is expected to remain relevant today as well.*

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary*

*Stocks surge on crude oil pullback*

*Stocks rebounded sharply on Monday after several consecutive sessions of notable losses, with all major averages closing higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the advance.*

The indexes finished off their intraday highs but remained strongly positive. The *Nasdaq* surged 268 points, or 1.2%, to 22,374; the *S&P 500* jumped 67 points, or 1%, to 6,699; and the *Dow* advanced 387 points, or 0.8%, to 46946.

*It was the market's strongest session since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran. Easing oil prices reduced immediate concerns over energy-driven inflation and its drag on economic growth.*

The *technology and travel* sectors led broad gains. *Norwegian Cruise* Line rose 5%, and *United Airlines* climbed 4%, both benefiting from lower fuel costs.
Semiconductor stocks were among the session's standout performers in the technology sector. *NVIDIA and Micron* posted notable gains as investors reassessed geopolitical risks to global supply chains and demand for digital infrastructure.

*The surge in crude prices this month is likely to shift the inflation outlook and lead most central banks to hold rates steady at their policy meetings this ​week.*

The *Federal Reserve* opened its *March 17–18* policy meeting today, with markets broadly *expecting rates to hold* at 3.50–3.75%. Investor focus is on the updated dot plot, as energy-driven inflation has *reduced 2026 rate-cut expectations from three to one*.

*Nifty snapped a three-day losing streak in a session defined by extreme volatility.*

*Having corrected nearly 13% from its all-time high*, Nifty found support in the gap band of 22,923–23,207, *setting the stage for a potential pullback rally.*

This rebound was driven by bargain hunting in heavyweights across the banking, auto, and FMCG sectors, despite ongoing volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

On the upside, *23,700* emerges as *a key resistance* to monitor. A decisive break below *22,923* would signal *a resumption of the downtrend*.

*Indian equity markets are set to open on a firm note, supported by favourable global cues.*

*Foreign investors are sitting on sizable short positions, and any unwinding of those bets could trigger a short-term rally.*

[Devarsh Vakil @Devarsh_Vakil]

*Simmering West Asia Crisis Rattle Global Markets*

*Iran conflict's potential to trigger a prolonged global energy shock rattled markets. Treasury yields surged alongside oil, raising concerns about overheating across market segments including private credit and AI-related investments.*

US Markets *drifted on Wednesday*, extending the prior session's lacklustre tone. Major indexes closed mixed for the second consecutive session: the Nasdaq edged up 19 points to 22,716, the S&P 500 slipped 5 points to 6775, and the Dow slid 289 points to 47417.

*US Index Futures deepened their losses* late Wednesday as oil extended its surge in after-hours trading. Dow futures fell further 500 points (nearly 1%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each dropped 0.9%.

*Oracle posted its strongest quarter in over 15 years.* Total cloud revenue rose 44% year-over-year to $8.9 billion, and cloud infrastructure revenue surged 84% to $4.9 billion, driven by AI training and inferencing demand. The company raised its fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion and reported remaining performance obligations of $553 billion — up 325% year-over-year — reflecting contracted AI infrastructure demand anchored by its $300 billion Stargate deal with OpenAI.

The Bureau of Labour Statistics reported *February CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month* and 2.4% year-over-year, both in line with forecasts. Core inflation came in at 2.5% annually, also matching expectations. Economists cautioned, however, that the reading is backward-looking: *the Iran-driven oil shock has since materially altered the inflation trajectory*, with food and fertilizer prices also under pressure.

*U.S. crude jumped to $95 a barrel*, extending an overnight gain, while *Brent crude surged to $100 a barrel*. Prices spiked after several *commercial vessels were attacked* off Iran's coast, severely disrupting tanker and cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has effectively halted transit through the strait, removing roughly 20 million barrels per day from global supply.

The *IEA coordinated a historic release of up to 400 million barrels* from strategic reserves — dwarfing the 182 million barrels released after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and with the *U.S. committing 172 million* barrels beginning next week. All 32 IEA member nations voted unanimously in favour. This measure offers only temporary relief, and only genuine military de-escalation can sustainably reduce prices.

*Asian shares fell* Thursday as reports of additional vessel strikes in the Strait of Hormuz and Iraqi waters sent oil prices higher, fanning inflation fears and pushing borrowing costs up globally.

Nifty *resumed its downtrend*, shedding 395 points or 1.63% to close at 23866 yesterday, its weakest closing since April 17, 2025, underscoring rising uncertainty in Indian equities.

*Support for the Nifty is placed at 23,697* and *23500*. Upside resistance clusters in the *24,200 – 24,300* band.

*Indian equity markets are set for a sharply lower open as surging crude oil prices weigh on sentiment.*