Simjo | Blacksands Trading

Daily Fundamental Analyst 🇨🇦 🇺🇸
I read the market so you don't have to.
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[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

https://t.co/NygOA93wOK

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@Tablesalt13 50% is a gut punch. autos, dairy, even hockey sticks made the list lol. but the coast to coast to coast thing hasn't been just words provinces actually stood together on this. keep the pressure on, keep buying canadian. we've weathered worse 🇨🇦

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@MarkJCarney 50% is a gut punch. autos, dairy, even hockey sticks made the list lol. but the coast to coast to coast thing hasn't been just words — provinces actually stood together on this. keep the pressure on, keep buying canadian. we've weathered worse 🇨🇦

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@MarkJCarney 50% is a gut punch. autos, dairy, even hockey sticks made the list lol. but the coast to coast to coast thing hasn't been just words provinces actually stood together on this. keep the pressure on, keep buying canadian. we've weathered worse 🇨🇦

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@DudeWhoInvests "one thing i know for sure" is doing a lot of work here. 6% above every bank on earth isn't a moat, it's a marketing budget. the day the subsidy ends is the day we find out if it's actually a disruptor.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

rep. william timmons just disclosed buying up to $100k of SpaceX. transaction dated june 15.
the part nobody's flagging: SpaceX is private. there's no ticker. you literally cannot buy it. he got into a pre IPO round the rest of us are locked out of.
and he sits on BOTH financial services and oversight the committee with jurisdiction over federal contractors. SpaceX is one of the biggest there is.
so a lawmaker who helps oversee government contracting bought private equity in a top government contractor, through a door retail will never walk through.
this is the whole case for the trading ban in one filing.
@SpaceX

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

trump wants the lowest rates in the world.
so he installed kevin warsh to go get them.
the problem: warsh is an inflation hawk. his line under oath was "inflation is a choice." he's talking hikes, not cuts.
june CPI actually cooled to 3.5%, but the 30year still sits at 5%. the long end isn't buying that the fight is won.
so the real tension in markets right now isn't trump vs the data.
it's trump vs the hawk he picked himself.
something has to give

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

everyone's reading "blackrock sells $12B in bonds for meta data center" as a headline.
the real story: meta owns just 20% of the el paso project. blk holds the debt through its SPV, meta leases the campus back.
zero of it hits meta's balance sheet.
same trick as the $27B blue owl hyperion deal. AI capex is quietly turning into an investment-grade credit product. every hyperscaler copies this next.
not a headline. a blueprint.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@coinbureau $12b of bonds so meta can rent its own data center. off balance sheet AI capex is the trade of 2026 and nobody's pricing the tail risk

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

The neocloud repricing is happening in real time. Here's what actually moved today and why it matters.

Two anchor catalysts drove the compute/colo complex today, and both are more substantial than the headline percentages suggest.
$IREN raised its year-end 2026 AI Cloud ARR target from $3.7B to more than $4B, with ~85% of that now under contract. The driver: $2.8B in new multi-year cloud contracts with leading AI developers, weighted average term ~4 years. The customer book now spans Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, Figure AI, Together AI, Fluidstack, Fireworks AI, Fal AI, Hume AI, and one undisclosed lab. This builds directly on the $9.7B / 5-year Microsoft GB300 deal at the Childress Horizon campus. Balance sheet backs the ambition: ~$7.6B cash as of June 30, and roughly 45% of associated GPU capex is being covered by customer prepayments, so the funding drag is lighter than a pure-capex read implies. Capacity roadmap: 480MW this year scaling toward 1.2GW in 2027. Context worth keeping honest — the stock had shed ~43% over the prior month, so a chunk of today is a violent mean-reversion off oversold, not just fresh conviction.
$HUT is the one the tape is underpricing. Today's $9.8B, 15 year lease is not a new tenant it's the same high investment grade counterparty from Phase 1 doubling its footprint to 704MW, fully commercializing the 1GW Beacon Point campus in Nueces County, TX.
Repeat conviction from an existing tenant is a far stronger demand signal than a new logo.
Campus baseterm value now sits at $19.6B (~$1.31B annual NOI at stabilization), with renewal options pushing potential campus value to $50.2B. Across Beacon Point and the Googlebackstopped River Bend campus, Hut 8's contracted AI portfolio is now 949MW representing $26.6B in contracted revenue.
Triplenet structure, 3% annual escalators this is landlord economics, not miner economics.
The macro that ties it together: this isn't sentiment, it's a genuine supply crunch. Moonshot paused new Kimi K3 signups on July 19 because demand overran their compute and that sits on top of a sector where effectively all new GPU capacity through late 2026 is already booked.
When open model labs are rationing access, the pricing power flows straight to whoever controls power + racks. That's the neocloud/colo bid: $CIFR, $CLSK, $WYFI riding the same wave, with $NBIS and $CRWV lagging today but structurally in the identical trade.

The discipline check: these are still cash-consuming stories. IREN's levered FCF is around -$2.3B TTM, and Hut 8's Texas backlog leans heavily on a single confidential counterparty real concentration risk if that tenant's demand curve ever bends. "Runrate target" is not booked revenue. Respect the setup, size for the volatility.

The label "bitcoin miner" is now a legacy tag. What you're actually watching is the birth of a computelandlord asset class

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

$TSLA quietly ramping Giga Berlin again second 20% bump in a row, targeting 7,500 Model Y/week from October.
that's 4,700/wk in Q1 to 7,500 by Q4. 60% more output in three quarters off a plant that ran half empty last year. europe demand is actually turning.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

everyone's tweeting the raised $4b ARR target on $IREN.
the actual story: 45% of GPU capex on new contracts is now customer prepaid.
that's someone else funding your buildout while you monetize infra you already control. capital light optionality on an "expensive" business.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

$AMD +4% on the msft helios deal. real catalyst, but ask what nobody's asking: how much compute is microsoft actually buying? undisclosed.
ships H2 26. stock's already up 135% ytd at 170x earnings.
the validation is real. the price already assumes it.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

everyone calling $BE "struggling" today. it's +150% ytd and near all time highs.
that's not struggling that's a crowded momentum name getting its first real gut check.
the permit denial is a dent. the hunterbrook short report on china-sourced scandium is the actual risk.
watch that, not the -8% candle.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@DudeWhoInvests down 8% today. up 150% on the year. "struggling immensely" is doing a LOT of work in that sentence

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

tempus isn't "acquiring" personalis. it already owned 19% and was the exclusive seller of next personal.
this is TEM buying the asset it already controlled distribution on right as medicare coverage flips MRD unit economics.
pay the premium, own the whole cash flow. smart timing.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

$GOOGL and $TSLA both report wednesday after close. intc thursday.
but the number that matters isn't eps it's capex.
after friday's semi selloff, alphabet raising capex guidance again could sell the stock on a beat. this print is a referendum on the entire ai spend trade, not just googl.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@StockOptionCole solid. adding: tsla options pricing 7.6% move wed, googl is the ai capex referendum. after the friday semi selloff, this whole week trades off whether hyperscaler spend still gets rewarded. capex more than eps

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

everyone's cheering the bitmine buyback. the real tell: eth buys collapsed to 7,430 last week to fund it.
$BMNR is down 50% ytd and trading under nav. lee thinks his stock is the better trade than eth right now. sit with that.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@StockSavvyShay real story here isn't the buyback, it's that eth buys dropped to 7,430 last week. smallest of the year. they basically paused accumulation to buy back stock trading under nav. capital allocation shift, not just a flex