Dezwin

Exploring markets | Opinions only, not financial advice

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

$BTC
Took a short on BTC.

These lines in the picture are monthly levels and imo, as long as BTC doesn't reclaim 82k, we will probably go lower. We had a reaction on that level and if we were really bullish, we would break it immediately and not look back. Typically BTC reacts like that on major levels like this one. But this time we rejected 82k and went lower. Although, technically the monthly and weekly price action is bullish, the daily still remains bearish, and for me this doesn't really look like a bottom, at least for now. I could imagine that we are making a lower low here and after that ranging for a bit until September, similar to what we saw in 2022. Hopefully the geopolitical and macro environment will be resolved by then, but yeah, this is it for now. Invalidation is clearly if we are back at 82k. Don't want to get stopped out by an obvious liquidation spike, so I'll probably wait for a weekly close above this level. I mean it is also very important to see where the monthly candle is about to close, but until then there is still some time left.

Not really using it but the 200 EMA/MA is also showing us a pretty accurate direction.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

The calm before the storm lmao

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

tbh no idea what is going to happen with SpaceX IPO. Even though I'm not going to participate at all, I think it's still important to not fully ignore.

Could be that this thing is going to suck some liquidity, and that other risk assets are going to bleed a bit because of it.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

Took another small short in case we get one more sell-off. If we start ranging here, I'll close it.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

good reaction so far, but I'm still a bit concerned about the whole sentiment.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

Probably need to hold here. Otherwise I won't be surprised if it starts trading in the 40s again.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

$BTC
Really curious about what is going to happen next.
imo if we claim 82k again there should be nothing stopping us from higher pa, but if we really reject from here now, I think lower lows are inevitable.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

To be fair I didn't expect BTC to hit 80k before we make new lows again but I still think that this scenario is possible

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

just for fun, here's a picture of me trying to forecast the price action of BTC.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

bitcoin:native

Right now I really don't have any idea, could imagine that we do something similar to '22.

So for BTC maybe we go lower and then sideways until September. But this is me trying to forecast, not taking a position until I see a clear setup.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

Just wanna talk quick about my positions the last few weeks.

So I think doge was definitely something I was talking about. Anyway, I closed this with a loss cause it didn't move the way I was looking for.

Hype trade went really well, I think I was tweeting about when I went long into it, and also closed near ATH.

The BTC trade was also a very good one, like I said that it doesn't look like a bottom to me and now we are almost at new lows again.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

Well, wasn't really active the past few days, but I'm happy about how I managed my positions the last few weeks. Will try to be more active now as I already said many times lmao

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

$HYPE

Took a long here.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

hyperliquid:native

good reaction so far.

Also closed above the weekly level.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

That said, it's only a daily candle. The weekly close is far more important.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

Definitely not shorting it, and I wouldn't recommend it. But worth being cautious about this reaction here, a daily close below this line isn't something I would expect if a coin is really bullish.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

Well, some alts did really well to be fair. But I'm still thinking that we're going lower with BTC. Doesn't necessarily mean the same for a few alts like Hype. Also quite positive on some equities.

[fejau @fejau_inc]

Unfathomably bad takes around this this morning and a good reminder of why 13F digging is mostly a waste of time.

- March 31st we were in the heat of the Iran war, makes sense to put on hedges at the time.
- Options exposure on 13F’s get quoted notionally, so as if it were 100 delta i.e all 100 shares per contract.
- We have no way of knowing whether these were 5 delta convexity hedges and represented a fraction of what people are saying were billions in puts or whether they were ITM puts.
- Further, outright shorts don’t get reported either.

Too much noise associated with things that happened back in March that aren’t relevant now, we have no idea about his turnover in assets of trade frequency.

A lot happened in the months of April and May, his positioning could be completely different. Making investment decisions for 80 vol assets based on data from months ago sounds like a good way to burn money.

So don’t idolize people and develop
Your own thesis for why you sell and own things.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

dogecoin:native
Typically I'm more into major coins, but I think with DOGE there is an easy invalidation, so why not.

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

Just bought some dogecoin:native

[Dezwin @Dezwln]

$BTC
Really curious about what is going to happen next.
imo if we claim 82k again there should be nothing stopping us from higher pa, but if we really reject from here now, I think lower lows are inevitable.