DG Invests

Investing📈| Building an early retirement portfolio💰| Not financial advice |

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

$TMDX earnings “miss”

Many investors looked at $TMDX’s latest earnings and saw margin pressure, higher costs, and weaker profitability.

What they missed is that these results largely reflect aggressive investment to expand a future opportunity, not evidence of a deteriorating business.

For years, $TMDX has been transforming from a traditional medical device company into a logistics-enabled healthcare platform.

That shift comes with higher fixed costs, heavier capital requirements, and lower reported margins today but it unlocks a market that simply couldn’t be addressed through the legacy organ transplant infrastructure.

Organs die if you go slow. The logistics network is the moat.

This is a playbook we’ve seen before.

The best compounding businesses sacrifice current profitability to build scale and lock in competitive position. The accounting looks worse before the economics get better.

The mistake many investors make is evaluating $TMDX on reported earnings without adjusting for the growth investments embedded in those numbers.

Today that includes:

• OCS 2.0 development and trial enrollment
• CHOPS cold perfusion development and regulatory approvals
• OCS Kidney trials targeting a 2027 launch
• International expansion beginning in Italy
• Building a European NOP network, including a strategic investment in a German aviation company
• A new Boston headquarters

Every one of these carries upfront costs with little or no immediate revenue contribution. They pressure margins, earnings, and EPS today while laying the groundwork for future growth

That investment showed up clearly in Q1 2026.

$TMDX is now building its European platform, replicating the infrastructure that drove adoption in the U.S.

Rather than repeating its early reliance on costly third-party aviation providers, management is vertically integrating key logistics capabilities from the outset through long-term lease arrangements.

These obligations appear as liabilities on the balance sheet, but economically they are investments in the infrastructure required to serve a much larger market.

Meanwhile, heart, lung, and kidney programs are absorbing R&D expense today while much of the revenue opportunity remains ahead.

As volumes scale, those costs should be spread across a larger revenue base, improving utilisation, margins, and returns on capital.

Fuel costs and other short-term operating pressures are noise. They may affect quarterly results, but they do little to alter the long-term thesis.

The market is focused on today's earnings.

The opportunity lies in understanding what those earnings are being sacrificed to build.

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

Ceres Power $CRW.L operates an asset light licensing model built around its proprietary solid oxide technology.

Rather than manufacturing fuel cells or electrolysers itself, Ceres develops and owns the intellectual property, then licenses it to large industrial partners that manufacture, scale and commercialise the products globally.

This approach creates a highly scalable business model. Ceres avoids the heavy capital expenditure associated with building factories, instead generating revenue through licensing fees, engineering services and, ultimately, royalties on partner production. As a result, the company has historically maintained gross margins of 70-80%.

The timing looks increasingly interesting as two major demand drivers begin to converge: AI data centres requiring reliable, low emission power generation, and industrial decarbonisation driving demand for green hydrogen.

Some of Ceres Power’s most important commercial partners and customers today include:

> Doosan Fuel Cell – The most advanced commercial partner. Doosan has begun mass production of fuel cell stacks based on Ceres’ technology and generated Ceres’ first royalty revenues in 2025.

> Delta Electronics – Developing solid oxide fuel cell systems, including applications for distributed power and data centres.

> Shell – Collaborating on solid oxide electrolyser technology for green hydrogen production.

> Denso – Developing solid oxide fuel cell products for power generation applications.

> Thermax – Licensed Ceres technology for decarbonisation and distributed energy applications in India.

Ceres’ technology platform consists of two core products:

> Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs), which convert fuels such as hydrogen, natural gas and biofuels into highly efficient electricity and heat, making them well suited for distributed and behind-the-meter power generation.

> Solid Oxide Electrolyser Cells (SOECs), which use electricity to split water and produce green hydrogen. Ceres claims its SOEC technology can achieve hydrogen production at approximately 37 kWh/kg, around 30% more efficient than incumbent lower-temperature technologies.

Recognising the growing energy demands of AI infrastructure, Ceres began actively marketing its SOFC technology to the data centre market in mid-2025 as a potential solution for providing reliable on-site power.

The business model follows a phased revenue structure. Partners initially pay engineering and development fees during joint technology programmes, followed by substantial upfront licence and technology transfer payments. The final and most valuable stage is recurring royalties, where Ceres receives ongoing payments for every unit or megawatt of capacity its partners manufacture and sell.

This royalty layer is where the long-term investment thesis becomes most compelling.

Ceres generated its first royalty revenue in 2025 as Doosan commenced mass production of fuel cell stacks in South Korea.

However, management has cautioned that royalty revenues are likely to remain modest through 2026, with more meaningful contributions expected from 2027 onwards as manufacturing volumes scale.

The potential upside is significant. Management has indicated that a single partner producing 1 GW of annual capacity could generate £50-100 million of annual royalty revenue for Ceres.

The opportunity is clear: an asset-light technology company with industry-leading efficiency, exposure to AI power demand and hydrogen growth, and a business model that becomes increasingly attractive as partners move from development into mass production.

The key risk is equally clear. Ceres’ success is heavily dependent on the execution, deployment timelines and commercial success of its partners. The royalty engine exists, but investors are still waiting for it to reach scale.

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

@babyfolio Ceres Power

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

@WillBiddy_ Adobe
Duolingo
PayPal

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

Big W to whoever changed the Spotify app back🫶🏼

That disco ball was annoying as hell 💀

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

@wealthmatica

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

@Mariusz_Invest That’s actually wild🤯

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

Suspicious company for sure

A few weeks ago this was their HQ’s on their website

Skyline electric manufacturing 🤔I reached out to Skyline and asked if DarkNX office was located on their site in Seattle

I never got a reply. But since the email the “HQ” has been removed from their website

Suss. AVOID

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

$ADBE shareholders rn

[Jim Cramer @jimcramer]

Adobe aint got nothin for ya

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

What do we see first, an Iran deal or a $IREN deal?

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

@CKCapitalxx Holding out for ~$480 / $490

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

@tray_fi Hopefully they pull out a great print and guidance brother… but I’m not convinced on Adobe - I could very well be wrong though lol

Time will tell - will keep an eye out for their Q release in a couple hours

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

Adobe $ADBE is the next PayPal $PYPL

It’s slowly dying.

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

@BBCMOTD No way Anderson is worth £120M never mind more then £120M💀

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

@LazaroInvestor Let’s get after it Chris 🫡

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

@grkportfolio Another one @wealthmatica 😄

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

@wealthmatica Interesting indeed

Where did you get the figures from though? Well apart from zetas of course😄

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

Very interesting!

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Visa and OpenAI are expanding their partnership to let AI agents make online purchases after user permission.

$V payment services will be integrated into OpenAI’s platform so retailers can accept agent-driven transactions.

Visa says the goal is trusted, secure, and seamless payments as AI agents become active participants in commerce.

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

@LazaroInvestor Enjoy the day brother

[DG Invests @DG_Invests]

@DividendDynasty Staying clear personally - much better options out there