Divesh L

Entrepreneur + Investor + Philosopher.

Love = Food + Man Utd + Jazz + Single Malt + Tech

[Jacob Coxon @hilbertspaess]

I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.

[Krish Ashok @krishashok]

Everyone uses the term "Superfood" but no one bothers to define it. So I took 10 essential nutrients and scored common Indian ingredients on how much of your daily needs 100 kcal of that food provides so that you have some mathematical basis to call something a superfood.

Ghee scores 4. Chicken liver scores 292 and costs less than paneer. And what maxxes out the scale? Palak (Spinach)

The most nutrient-dense foods in India are the cheapest things in the market, and the least hyped by influenzas

[Divesh L @Divesh_L]

@krishashok Admirer of your work Krish!! I hope you expand this project and make it an exhaustive food-nutrition database of sorts. Great job 👌🏻

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Americans bet over $165 billion on sports last year, which is more than they spent on movies, books, concerts and sports tickets - combined.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

This isn’t even remotely true. $AMZN went public in 1997 at a $450M valuation, or 3x revenues. $GOOGL went public in 2004 at a $23B valuation and at 7x revenues. $META had a $104B valuation in 2012 at 20x revenues(and immediately sold off almost 50%). SpaceX dwarfs these numbers.

[Divesh L @Divesh_L]

Time to turn his notifications on 😂

[محم��باقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf @mb_ghalibaf]

Vibe-trading digital oil is like vibe-hedging in treasuries during Hormuz risk-off. Both share one house of cards that works on paper.
Difference: oil at least has Dated Brent. Treasuries? Vibes all the way down.

EUCRBRDT Index GP <GO>

[Divesh L @Divesh_L]

Look at him. That's my Quant.

[محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf @mb_ghalibaf]

Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator.

Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.

See something tomorrow? You know the drill.

[Divesh L @Divesh_L]

Volatility management ≠ Risk management.
But it's a decent enough proxy.

[Bloomberg @business]

CME Group will raise margins on precious-metal futures for the second time in the space of a week following a volatile period of trading that saw prices spike then retreat. https://t.co/KWsVwWHPhp

[Max Weinbach @mweinbach]

Reading a JP Morgan AI CAPEX report and this is such a great way to put AI ROI into perspective

"to drive a 10% return on our modeled AI investments through 2030 would require ~$650 billion of annual revenue into perpetuity... which equates to $34.72/month from every current iPhone user"

[Aaron Francis @aarondfrancis]

Sam Altman snaps at Brad Gerstner
Michael Burry shorts
Alex Karp crashes out on TV
DoorDash misses
OpenAI CFO floats a bailout
McDonald's is for the upper class

[litquidity @litcapital]

“You invested into a fund that buys stakes in secondaries funds that buy stakes in private equity funds that buy stakes in companies?”

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

Gold becomes more valuable to Australia than LNG
🇦🇺❤️🥇

📈 Revenues from gold will jump to A$60 billion in 2025-26 amid a record-breaking surge in prices
📉 LNG prices, meanwhile, have softened from the highs of the energy crisis in 2022. Australia is a top LNG exporter

[Divesh L @Divesh_L]

Might be an unpopular opinion, but I'd like to see more investors holding managements and promotors accountable, and calling them out.

[Abhinav Kukreja @kukreja_abhinav]

Average shareholder meeting in the world of Indian microcaps

[Brandon Luu, MD @BrandonLuuMD]

Evening blue light vs. a print book:
💤 Screens = 10 min longer to fall asleep
🔄 Delay the circadian clock by 1.5 hours
🌙 Suppress melatonin by 55%
🛌 Reduced REM sleep (109 vs. 121 min)
😴 Reduced morning alertness by several hours
Here's what you need to know🧵 1/11

[Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova]

The EU developed AI Act instead of AI. To paraphrase Geoffrey Howe, the EU is like a man who knows 364 ways of making love, but doesn’t know any women.

[Karen Hao @_KarenHao]

As someone who has reported on AI for 7 years and covered China tech as well, I think the biggest lesson to be drawn from DeepSeek is the huge cracks it illustrates with the current dominant paradigm of AI development. A long thread. 1/

[The Tennis Letter @TheTennisLetter]

With Rafa Nadal's retirement... we've officially lost 3 of the Big Four

Heartbreak is real 💔

[Divesh L @Divesh_L]

IRR expectations of VC funds aside, Theobroma is an excellent reminder for entrepreneurs / founders that building excellence, with scale takes years!

And it's worth it!

[Aviral Bhatnagar @aviralbhat]

India’s largest cash exit for a founder may not be in consumer tech or fintech, but 3,500 Cr bakery Theobroma

Theobroma could not raise for 10 years. The bakery stayed stuck at 1 store for six years. Theobroma sold brownies in the 2000s, more luxury than mass. TB struggled with loans for a decade till it started. Far from being a startup delivering an exit, it looks stuck at subscale

But opening the oven reveals a 20 year old loved juggernaut brand attempting to go global

Kainaz Messman landed a dream job as a pastry chef at Oberoi. But a serious back injury in 2003 derailed life. Nudged by her family, she thought of opening a small bakery. Looking for the ideal location, Mumbai’s Colaba Causeway was picked. Searching for a name, cakes or brownies seemed the ideal mix. But Greek for Food of the Gods came knocking

Theobroma was born in October 2004

Starting a hip, upmarket bakery, Theo was a hit. Millionaire Brownies, Cheesecakes became fan favourites. For a city that didn’t have authentic European baking, Theo was fresh. By 2008, Theo became a Mumbai food trendsetter. Others copied. As love flourished, the business didn’t. Demand was huge. But upfront investment needed crippled Theo

By 2012, despite wanting to scale, Theo couldn’t secure funding or a loan

As the founders struggled, light shone in 2014. Theo secured its first loan of 5 Cr after 10 years in business. Theo soon expanded to more in Mumbai. By 2015, its loyal, young, urban, customer base was everywhere. People traveled to have Theo brownies. By 2016, it expanded to NCR. Gourmet cakes, croissants became Indian consumer choices. International baked goods expanded as a category. Swiggy/Zomato’s birth only drove consumption

By 2017, ICICI Ventures would finally bite and invest in Theo

Premium quality came with costs. Theo brought efficiency through tech. Despite the costs, Theo reached 10% of margin. ICICI would see the attractiveness, pumping 120 Cr till 2019 for a total of 46%. It would be a sweet, prescient bet. By 2020, Theo became a huge brand. Breaching 100 Cr of revenue, the founders wrote a bestselling book

As the pandemic hit, Theo took it in stride to ramp up online

By 21, it had 500,000 customers. By 2022, it had 100 outlets. Chennai was added. Professional mamagement came in. Savoury items were added. By 2023, it hit 300 Cr of revenue. Staring at the 100,000 Cr largely unorganized bakery market, Theo was exploding. In organized, Theo was king

By 2024 Theo was in 30 cities, with 225 stores, well on track to hit 600 Cr of revenue

Given the enormous growth, Theo is attracting suitors. At a valuation of ~3,500 Cr with huge room for growth, ICICI is sitting at ~1,600 Cr on a 120 Cr investment. 10x in 5 years is a dream in VC, let alone PE. If the acquisition happens, founders could make 1,000 Cr in cash, one of India’s largest exits

With details here (https://t.co/SrFyyrrHm5), from a dreamy-eyed baker with big dreams, Theobroma is now world-class dreaming of the world

[Divesh L @Divesh_L]

Case study question:
What would be the most probable outcome in a Market Economy?
What would be the most likely outcome in a Command Economy?

[Abhishek Kothari 🇮🇳 @kothariabhishek]

.@CNBCTV18Live
@iiflsecurities note:
Government backed Telco @MTNLOfficial asks banks for a 60% haircut on loans*

Event: As per a media article, some banks have classified their exposure to government owned MTNL (56% owned by government) as NPA in August. This follows the defaults on PSU bank instalments in the last few months. MTNL has proposed a one-time settlement (OTS) with a haircut of 60%, which the lenders have rejected who are seeking full settlement. MTNL has total financial debt outstanding of ~Rs360 bn (23% exposure with banks and balance in the form of bonds backed by Govt).

IIFL View:

1) Banks have an exposure of Rs81bn to MTNL, which is not guaranteed by the government and have a CARE D rating. The exposure is mainly concentrated with the PSU banks (Union, @IOBIndia, @BankofIndia_IN, @pnbindia, @TheOfficialSBI, @UCOBankOfficial and PSJB), and accounts for 40-100 bps of total loans for Union and IOB.

2) @UnionBankTweets has frozen all transaction bank accounts of MTNL recently. Even BOI, which maintains the escrow account to receive government funds to service the bonds, has downgraded the exposure as NPA.

3) MTNL’s outstanding bonds of Rs277bn (coupons of 7.0-8.25%) are backed by unconditional and irrevocable guarantee for the servicing of entire issue (principal amount and accrued interest), from the Government of India through Department of Telecommunications (DoT) and Ministry of Communications (MoC). Credit rating of these bonds has been recently downgraded from AAA to AA+ rating.

4) MTNL has reported cumulative net loss of Rs291bn (Rs33bn in FY24) in the last 10 years, and is thus chronically stressed. The Government is trying to revive the company by approving a plan to monetise surplus land and building assets to repay debt and for Capex, but the progress has been slow.

5) In the meantime, MTNL’s FY24 annual report states that “The existing network of MTNL has become obsolete. The heavy debt burden and the recurring losses during the past 12 years have resulted in a financial crunch, making MTNL unable to invest in the modernisation, upgradation, and expansion of its network.”

[Divesh L @Divesh_L]

RIP data center plays. Was fun while it lasted.

[Jim Cramer @jimcramer]

Ellison could re-ignite the data center trade by himself; Oracle has 162 data centers and he says there is room for another 1000 to 2000. Doesn't sound like "peak year data center.: