DizzyDwarf

Macro | Stocks | Bitcoin, not crypto

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

SpaceX is the most overhyped IPO of the decade and it will end exactly the way every overhyped IPO ends. Facebook IPO’d at $38 and traded under that for 15 months. Uber IPO’d at $45 and is still below that adjusted seven years later for a while. WeWork tried at $47 billion and ended at zero. Robinhood IPO’d at $38, hit $85, then $7. Coinbase IPO’d at $381 and was at $40 two years later. Rivian IPO’d at a $100 billion valuation with no meaningful revenue and gave back 90%. Beyond Meat. Peloton. Lyft. DoorDash. Bird. Each one a “generational company” the day it priced.

Each one a wealth destruction event for retail within 18 months. The pattern is not a coincidence. Hype IPOs are designed to transfer wealth from the people buying the story to the people who built the story. The bankers get paid. The early employees get out. The VCs get a markup they can show their LPs. The retail investor gets the bag. SpaceX is a great company. That has nothing to do with whether it’s a great stock at IPO. Greatness was already priced in five funding rounds ago. You are not getting in early. You are buying the exit. The only IPO worth chasing is the one nobody is talking about. Those don’t exist anymore because every IPO is marketed like a movie release. So the answer is: don’t chase. Wait two years. Buy it down 70% when the lockup unwinds and the narrative breaks. Or don’t buy it at all and put the money somewhere the bankers haven’t already extracted the alpha. Hype is not an asset class. It’s a tax.

[Sumit Kumar @TweetsOfSumit]

Apple AI blocked from the EU.
ECB intentionally slowing down Revolut.

…

I don’t think anything changed since the Draghi report. We are still fighting against local bureaucracy instead of competing globally.

[DizzyDwarf @DizzyDwarfX]

The time has come for the biggest IPOs ever. Liquidity is being sucked out of the market to be injected in SpaceX, and the AI IPOs that will follow.
Anyhow, legacy markets needed a break. Also, Friday's good jobs report is pushing the hawkish thesis. https://t.co/Ku80qZoU17

[DizzyDwarf @DizzyDwarfX]

BTW 2026 would be a much bigger IPO year.
Stay safe!
https://t.co/lRS7jFsI7k

[DizzyDwarf @DizzyDwarfX]

@CryptoVizArt a new band was already added in 2022, here we go again

[DizzyDwarf @DizzyDwarfX]

stairs up, elevator down

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

As he continues to top blast $IBM

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

The entire quantum sector is on fire this morning after the Trump Administration announced they will award $2B in grants to nine quantum-computing companies

These deals may include U.S. government EQUITY STAKES 👀

Pre-market moves so far:
🟢 $INFQ +24%
🟢 $QBTS +15%
🟢 $ARQQ +14%
🟢 $QUBT +13%
🟢 $RGTI +13%
🟢 $GFS +13%
🟢 $IONQ +7%
🟢 $QMCO +7%
🟢 $IBM +7%
🟢 $LAES +6%

[Lina Seiche @LinaSeiche]

It’s hard to believe now, but not too many years ago, the EU quite successfully sold itself as an advocate for the rights of its people, and an EU condemnation held political weight on the other side of the planet.

Today the world knows that when the EU says “free speech,” they mean “approved speech,” when they say “press freedom,” they mean “press obedience,” and when they say “human rights,” they mean they love criminals.

The speed with which the EU became a parody of itself is nothing short of extraordinary. And tragic.

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

$AMZN Double Beat, -1.55% 🟥
$MSFT Double Beat, -1.73% 🟥
$GOOG Double Beat, +3.89% 🟩
$META Double Beat, -5.57% 🟥

Just brutal 🩸

[DizzyDwarf @DizzyDwarfX]

Meanwhile Intel hit $85
https://t.co/1ffMBJ3M6g

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

-you wake up
-its august 22 2025
-US gov just announced a 10% stake in $INTC @ $20.47/share
-wall street says its a value trap

[Evan | Investments @NotA_Bull]

$AMZN holders, we just hit a NEW ALL TIME HIGH.

About 3 weeks ago, $AMZN was trading at its LOWEST valuation in HISTORY.

[DizzyDwarf @DizzyDwarfX]

Only a brief 1% dip for Nasdaq on Monday.
All eyes on Kevin Warsh's speech today for hints about the upcoming FED policy.
https://t.co/0RH7pLA1sx

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

Today’s meme courtesy of Shrubstack 🤭🌳🙏

[Zach Rynes | CLG @ChainLinkGod]

Look guys, it's actually really straightforward, a bunch of people staked their ETH on the Ethereum blockchain to earn yield, except they didn't want their capital to be locked up, so they actually staked with a liquid staking protocol called Lido who provided them a liquid staking receipt token called stETH, except they decided to juice their yield further by depositing their stETH receipt tokens into a restaking protocol called Eigenlayer, except they didn't want to lock up their capital, so they actually restaked with a liquid restaking protocol called KelpDAO who provided them with a liquid restaking receipt token called rsETH, except they decided to juice their yield further by depositing their rsETH tokens into a lending protocol called Aave so that they could open a leveraged looping position that borrows ETH against the rsETH collateral and restakes the ETH into rsETH which is then deposited as collateral, except it turns out rsETH used a cross-chain bridge called LayerZero that was hacked by north koreans causing rsETH to become undercollateralized and now these looping positions are stuck and unprofitable, and everyone is pointing fingers at each other, and also DeFi is a very serious industry

[DizzyDwarf @DizzyDwarfX]

Strait of Hormuz closed again
USA navy struck an Iranian cargo ship
Iran refuses to negotiate
(+bonus) AAVE situation

Result: red Monday across the board, if nothing changes dramatically

[WOLF Trading @WOLF_TradingX]

The stock market so far in 2026 explained

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iran officially reopens the Strait of Hormuz for ALL commercial vessels for the remaining period of the ceasefire.

Iran's statement below:

"In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Rep. of Iran."

[DizzyDwarf @DizzyDwarfX]

old news
https://t.co/EvNk7phxJX

[Wall Street Mav @WallStreetMav]

Former Treasury Secretary is concerned that the US govt is close to hitting a wall where there would not be enough buyers for US govt debt.

At some point, buyers won't bid on new debt unless the rates are higher to justify the risk.

With nearly $40 trillion in debt, $2 trillion annual budget deficits and 25% of all tax revenue going ... it is just a matter of time before investors start demanding higher rates for the risk they are taking.

The market generally assumes that if there are not enough buyers for US govt debt, the Fed will be forced to become the buyer of last resort. The only thing the Fed can do is print money (digitally) to buy the debt, which they do via the Primary Dealers.

Primary Dealer banks buy the US govt debt at auction, then the Fed buys it from the Primary dealers. Thus the Fed can pretend it is not funding the govt. The Fed will claim it is just providing liquidity to the banking system. It is all BS, it is basically the Fed just printing money to fund the govt and giving a small guaranteed profit to the big banks in the middle.

[DizzyDwarf @DizzyDwarfX]

@Crypto_LedgerX @KobeissiLetter welcome to the stock market

[DizzyDwarf @DizzyDwarfX]

As soon as ceasefire talks began markets considered the war a closed case, making a V-shape recovery to ATHs in just 11 days (S&P above 7k today).

A really rare event. Sweet if you positioned accordingly, painful if you stayed sidelined as a bear.

https://t.co/8aNSmew5UC

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

The last 10-days have been unlike any 10-day period in the market since 1950.

First, the S&P 500 is up 9.8% in 10-days, which is in the 99.7th percentile of all 10 day returns.