3 weeks ago I argued the US goal in Iran is to seize the global oil spigot. Venezuela in January -> Iran in February.
Neutralize every supply channel outside the dollar system within 90 days. Achieve a compliant successor government and complete energy dominance.
The oil thesis was the obvious layer. However, when you zoom out & view the last four years as a single sequence rather than isolated geopolitical events, the architecture of the grander US plan becomes visible.
1st was Europe, which laid the groundwork.
The Ukraine conflict provided the justification for sanctions that collapsed Russian pipeline gas from 150 billion cubic meters to 40.
Then Nordstream was destroyed, which rewired the entire European energy system permanently. The US went from supplying 28% of Europe's LNG in 2021 to 58% by 2025, exporting a record 111 million MTs, the 1st country in history to break 100 MT.
Europe was transformed from a customer with options into a captive market now purchasing its survival in USD.
2nd was Syria.
The fall of Assad severed the critical node connecting China's Belt & Road Initiative to the Mediterranean.
The trilateral railway linking Iran, Iraq & Syria, designed to bypass Western maritime chokepoints, was completely destroyed.
This isolated Iran geographically & cleared the path for what came next.
3rd was Venezuela.
In January the US effectively took control of the world's largest heavy crude reserves. The US Gulf Coast has the most advanced refining complex on earth, specifically built for heavy sour crude. Phillips 66, Valero & the rest are now positioned to process hundreds of thousands of barrels of Venezuelan crude daily.
The US captured a massive strategic reserve & solidified its position as the dominant exporter of refined petroleum products, an industry worth $110 billion in 2025 alone.
Venezuela & Iran were the two major oil supply channels that existed outside the dollar system. Both produce heavy crude sold primarily to China & evaded US financial supervision. Both now being neutralized within 90 days, which leads us to..
4th is Iran & the Middle East energy shock.
Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, the world's largest natural gas reservoir. Iran retaliated against Qatar's Ras Laffan, the single largest LNG facility on earth, responsible for a fifth of global supply. QatarEnergy's own assessment is that 17% of export capacity is gone and recovery will take up to 5 years. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. European gas prices spiked 70%. Asian spot prices doubled.
The only remaining scaled supplier? The United States.
If Iran falls & a successor government is installed that the US controls or influences (the Delcy model described weeks ago) then roughly 40 to 45 million barrels per day of global production out of 103 million is effectively under US control. OPEC becomes irrelevant because the US coalition is now the marginal producer. Now add the gas dimension & it goes beyond oil.
This war is solidifying the petrodollar system as it evolves into a hybrid petro/LNG-dollar. The old system was built on Saudi crude priced in USD. The new system is built on American crude plus American gas from the Gulf Coast, with no alternative supplier of comparable scale. The dependency is deeper because LNG infrastructure requires long term contracts & regasification terminals that lock buyers into supply relationships for decades. Europe & the Pacific allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.) cannot pivot away as there is nowhere left to pivot to. They're now locked into the US energy system.
The market confirms this. DXY went from 96 to 101. Gold down ~20% from its January all time high. Bitcoin down 20% on the year. Brent above $100. European & Asian institutions are liquidating precious metals and crypto to buy dollars because they need dollars to buy the only remaining scaled energy supply. The world is selling its gold to buy American energy in American currency. The dollar is now being weaponized through energy dependency.
The structural repricing is happening regardless of how the conflict resolves.
But the US grand strategy goes deeper..
Artificial intelligence is a physical industry. It runs on power and chips. Data centers require massive uninterrupted baseload electricity, primarily provided by natural gas. Semiconductor fabrication requires helium & rare earths.
By choking the Strait of Hormuz & crippling Middle Eastern LNG & helium production, the US is systematically degrading China's ability to power its data centers & fabricate semiconductors at scale.
The US is energy self sufficient, especially with newly captured Venezuelan reserves & expanding Gulf Coast capacity running on domestic gas.
On the other hand, China is import dependent & every joule it imports effectively now transits chokepoints the US Navy controls..
Iran was the Belt & Road's overland energy bypass, the corridor that allowed China to mitigate the Malacca Trap. With Iran neutralized that corridor is severed. China faces a world where its compute infrastructure competes for scraps on a depleted global LNG market, while American data centers run at full capacity on domestic energy.
Russia is next in the sequence. A post-war Iran reopening under US influence competes directly with Russia for the same refineries in China & India at lower cost. Iran's production costs are lower. Russia loses its last structural advantage in heavy crude & its economic lifeline. Additionally, under the Iran war cover, Ukraine has been opportunistically destroying Russian energy infrastructure & all signs point towards Russia being at the end of the line. The message from Washington becomes very simple: we dismantled two regimes in three months, your economy is about to get crushed, sign the Ukraine deal.
Then Trump sits down with Xi holding every card. Complete energy dominance. The hybrid petro/LNG-dollar fortified, Iran cleared, Russia cornered, & China facing the Malacca Trap fully closed with no remaining energy bypass.
Israel & the GCC are absorbing the kinetic cost of a conflict whose primary beneficiary, counter to the mainstream narrative, is actually America (First). Qatar offline for 5 years reprices the entire global gas market in favor of US exporters for the remainder of the decade. The Gulf states face years of rebuilding. Europe faces its 2nd energy crisis in four years.
Sure, the average American might face temporary moderate inflation & higher gas prices. But if you are the architect of the US empire & you view the rise of China & Chinese ASI as an existential winner takes all scenario, the collateral damage is acceptable cost.
Whoever controls the energy corridors controls the monetary system. Whoever controls the monetary system & the energy supply simultaneously controls the compute infrastructure that determines which civilization builds ASI first.
The US is seizing all 3.
Never forget how these cowards waited until AFTER everyone from our team left the field to come back out and stomp on our logo
I want a chair slammed and flag planted in the middle of that turf longhorn on Friday.
🚨 WTF?! ABC News is GUSHING over the texts sent between Charlie Kirk’s kiIIer and his trans lover
“[The texts were] very touching, in a way, that… many of us didn’t expect.”
“He was speaking so lovingly about his partner”
These people are DERANGED
🚨 'WE WILL K*LL YOU!': Florida sheriff has a message for would-be leftist rioters. NOT IN FLORIDA.
"If you throw a brick, a firebomb, or point a gun at one of our deputies, we will be notifying your family where to collect your remains at. Because we will K*LL you, graveyard D*AD. We're NOT gonna play."
"If you spit on us, you're going to the hospital, then jail."
"If you hit one of us, you're going to the hospital, and jail - and most likely get bitten by one of our big, beautiful dogs we have here."
"If you try to mob rule a car in Brevard County - gather around it, refusing to let the driver leave? In our county, you're most likely gonna get RUN OVER, and dragged across the street."
Brevard County Sheriff Wayne Ivey IS A LEGEND!!
PANIC IN DC: Google searches explode for:
- Criminal defense lawyer
- RICO law
- Swiss bank
- Offshore bank
- Wire money
- IBAN
- Statute of limitations
HEARTBREAKING moment Sandy Fonzo confronted a judge who was part of the kids-for-cash scheme where 2 judges were receiving millions of dollars to send kids to for-profit prisons.
Her son ended up committing suicide.
Biden just commuted the sentence of one of the judges.
Can Biden look Sandy in the eyes and explain why he commuted the judge’s sentence?
JUST IN: ABC News forced to pay $15 million to Trump to settle defamation lawsuit, George Stephanopoulos forced to issue public apology.
The development stems from a March incident where Stephanopoulos claimed Trump was found “liable for r*pe.”
Now, ABC News has to pay $15 million as a charitable contribution to a "Presidential foundation and museum to be established by or for Plaintiff, as Presidents of the United States of America have established in the past.”
They also have to cover Trump’s $1M in legal fees.
“ABC News and George Stephanopoulos regret statements regarding President Donald J. Trump made during an interview by George Stephanopoulos with Rep. Nancy Mace on ABC’s This Week on March 10, 2024,” the apology reads.
BREAKING: The San Diego County Board of Supervisors just voted 3-1 to turn the county into a "super" sanctuary county by shielding illegals from deportation and preventing police from notifying ICE about dangerous illegals in custody.
To @TheDemocrats ,
This is my career suicide note, but it’s also a thank you from someone who is done with careerism. I’m a lifelong member of your party and I’m voting for Donald Trump. Why? It’s not just your industrial-scale censorship or your endless wars or the fact that you disenfranchised millions of Kennedy voters through lawfare. If that were all I had, it would be sufficient, in terms of conscience and rage, but there’s more to this story than anger. Your hatred and censorship has taught me to admire @realDonaldTrump and to love my fellow working-class Americans, and for that I thank you.
This vote is for all the traumatized people who have been canceled and banished just for saying no to the establishment. This vote is for the surveyor, the farmer, the HVAC man, the nurse, the hairstylist, the Deadhead, the veteran, and my fellow adjunct professors who have told me their stories about being bullied by the Democrats in their friends and family and their colleagues at work. This is for the young Black woman in my class last year who, on the day of Kamala Harris’s visit to campus, said, “You’re going to hate me, Dr. Armstrong, but I’m not going. I’m voting for Donald Trump.” Why would she think I would hate her for the way she votes? What has happened to our country?
Somehow, Donald Trump has changed my mind. Where I once saw a cartoon white supremacist, warmonger, and narcissist, I now see the man who renegotiated NAFTA and the only president in the twenty-first century not to start a new war. Where I once saw the pal of the neocons, I now see a man who has awoken from his slumber and disavowed Dick Cheney, George Bush, and John Bolton, even as my own party embraces these “men.”
Why has the greatest entrepreneur of my generation (@elonmusk) risked his career to side with Trump? Why has the most consequential grassroots environmentalist of my time (@RobertKennedyJr ) sacrificed friends, family, and reputation to side with “The Orange Menace?” Why has the most courageous peace activist of the twenty-first century (@TulsiGabbard) left our party? Because Tulsi, Bobby, and Elon see what I see. Donald Trump is resilient and he’s risking his life to change the fate of our nation. Trump is transforming the Republican Party into the party of peace, free speech, and the working-class. He has converted George Bush’s billionaire boys club of Big War, Big Ag, and Big Pharma into a party that cares about public health and embraces regenerative agriculture.
Now I don’t think the GOP is all the way there yet, but they’re clearly the party that embraces dissent, and dissent—brave speech—is the fuel for evolution. So, for the first time in my life, I’m voting Republican. In the name of peace in Ukraine and free speech here at home, I’m casting my vote, as a Kennedy Democrat, for Donald Trump.
#TrumpVance2024 #MAGA #MAHA #TeamUnity
#HealTheDivide #Peace #Iraq #Ukraine