Dmitry Grozoubinski

Note: Account No Longer in Active Use. Fmr Diplomat. Trade and Negotiations Trainer. Forever D&D DM. (He/Him)

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

Just a note to say I don't regularly use or check this account anymore.

If you're looking to get in touch please use my website (https://t.co/47yzwQZ5Da) and if you're crazy enough to want to know what I think, I now do my shitposting (and rare substance threads) on BlueSky.

[Richard Baldwin @BaldwinRE]

Please listen to this @Reuters podcast on my eBook: Why Trump’s trade war fails
👉thx to @peter_tl
👉The Big View podcast, Richard Baldwin of @IMD_Bschool explains why hostility to US imports is now a bipartisan issue, and why the global trading system can survive Trump’s onslaught.
Cc: @SimonEvenett @snlester @scottlincicome @ojblanchard1 @zingales @AdamPosen @PIIE @DmitryOpines

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@Dicker_JJ I would join whichever Multi-Level Marketing Scheme you're promoting here.

[Christopher Tester @CGTester]

WHY POLITICIANS LIE ABOUT TRADE by @DmitryOpines.

Narrated by me, now available on Audible!

Published by @CanburyPress.

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@AnjaliVBhatt Tinder profile changed to: "I am an expert in why the shelves are empty, but can not in any way fix it."

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@ChanteMaldoror @samdebendern Merci!

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@noclador So the 'finding out' in this case is a mean Truth Social Post, or do you actually believe Abrams tanks are about to start rolling toward Toronto?

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@SpaghettiKozak @molli89351 I don't know who Adam Something is.

Is that a real person?

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@nickdearden75 The US currency's status is under absolutely no threat of meaningful challenge from anyone.

To the extent that there is minor competition, it's from the Euro, the Pound and the Yen.

Of the BRICS currencies only the Renminbi makes the list, on par with the AUD (lmao).

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@IAPonomarenko Ukrainian troops forced to fall back as Russian meat assaults advance using giant crates of worthless rubles for cover.

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@saintjavelin How does suspending the work of the Embassy help in the event of a nuclear attack?

If you actually believed it was imminent you'd evacuate.

This just feels performative...

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@NSe13864 Israeli F-35's just flew straight through, and lit up, Russian made air defense in Iran like it wasn't there.

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

Oh no!

I hope Russia doesn't start firing drones and missiles they received from an ally into Ukrainian territory.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@Inevitablewest The problem is that Russia will respond reciprocally

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@SectorAnalytics South Korea, Spain and Australia are pretty close together on GDP so could imagine a G10 expansion I suppose.

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@Bobjacket @owenjonesjourno @CentralCee123_ But we weren't. Over and over again.

It's almost like people are pretty reluctant to end the world in nuclear fire and we can stop bedwetting about it every time there's a mild change in US foreign policy which Owen himself keeps tweeting won't change the course of the war.

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@Bobjacket @owenjonesjourno @CentralCee123_ Firstly, I'm not sure your list of 50 times that didn't happen proves your point that it's easy.

Second, virtually everything in that list involves an accident, misunderstanding or miscommunication involving nuclear weapons themselves.

I fully agree we should keep them away.

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@owenjonesjourno @CentralCee123_ Again, and at the risk of this discussion becoming circular:

I think a more helpful framework than 'directions of travel' and 'escalatory creep' is the question:

- Will this specific action plausibly lead Russia to retaliate with nuclear arms?

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@owenjonesjourno @CentralCee123_ I'm not questioning the overall principle that you need to keep one eye on escalation. It is again, why I'm so feverishly opposed to anything that might put Russian and NATO troops in a position where they're shooting at each other...

... but we can't let it become paralytic.

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

@owenjonesjourno @CentralCee123_ My point was that the West had lines on all this stuff and then talked itself into crossing them, one at a time, with absolutely no consequences. Remember the debate over tanks?

Now, the Ukrainians literally invaded Russia back on Leopards and nothing happened.

[Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines]

I'm just not sure I understand why the limited right of Ukraine to use ATACMS around Kursk is the line for you, whereas for example providing it with F-16's wasn't.

I would also gently point out that many of us have been screaming at the White House (and Berlin) that their position on this is wacky and extreme for literal years.