Mindset of crypto-participants currently:
- what do i long?
- what can i still buy as spot long term/for this cycle?
- how much do i long a dip?
- where can i play a bit with leverage?
- what altcoins will do well this cycle?
All this says enough about the state this market is in: early bullmarket
And yes...violent retraces can happen, that is always the case
In case you do not know what you are doing, just hold spot and you will be fine
You don’t get paid extra for buying the exact bottom.
One of the old-school TA frameworks that really helped me when I was coming up was Stan Weinstein’s Stage Analysis.
There’s a reason I still think about it all these years later.
Weinstein broke markets into four basic stages: basing, advancing, topping and declining. He used things like the 30-week moving average, volume and relative strength to help identify when one stage was transitioning into another.
What people miss when they study this stuff is that the magic was never the 30-week moving average. The alpha was in the logic.
You don’t need to copy Weinstein exactly. You don’t need to copy me. Build your own framework. Use the tools that make sense to you.
But understand what you’re trying to identify.
Has the decline actually stopped? Is selling pressure drying up? Has price spent enough time building a real base? Is relative strength improving? When resistance finally goes, can price hold above it? Do the pullbacks start getting bought? Does the trend begin behaving differently?
Now we’re getting somewhere.
Will you pay more than the guy who somehow bought the exact bottom? Probably, but who cares?
You’re paying a little more for information and that information is what can give you the confidence to do something much harder than buying the low… to actually hold the asset while a real trend develops.
That’s what a good framework does for you.
It doesn’t predict every candle. It helps you recognize when the odds have changed enough to establish a directional bias, find your entries, know where you’re wrong, and stay with the trade while the evidence continues to support it.
There’s a big difference between being late and waiting for confirmation.
Your job isn’t to buy the lowest price. It’s to recognize when the odds have changed.
If this helped you see TA a little differently, pass it along, repost it. Maybe it helps the next trader too.
@coinfessions believe it or not. It is a clear sign that you dont deserve that wealth. And I am sure that with that same mindset, even if you are granted the multimillion dollar wealth today, you still cant keep it and will lose it in few months or few years. I was the same.
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@rockygmi he acted as if he looked at the chart the whole time would save his sorry ass from the rug pull. The rug pill was still happening even if you stare at the charts 24/7