StarFarmHD

It's a magical place. Plant and grow crops with friends as you build the greatest farm around!

[StarFarmHD @DouleTech]

Star Farm is now live! Grow and harvest beautiful crops, raise adorable animals, and craft delicious treats.

[Leo Heart @LeomathHeart]

🚨 The time has come! 🚨
This is THE zone to go FULLY IN for the next parabolic leg — straight into the Yellow Rainbow Zone 🔥
$200,000 Bitcoin in the next 2 years is inevitable. 💎🙌
Even if we miss the upper red band, the Yellow target is the highest-probability move by far.
The setup is crystal clear. Time to load up — RIGHT NOW! ⏰
Chart: Bitcoin Rainbow Projection by @LeoMathHeart

[Well Read @well_read_tales]

@historyinmemes And for SpaceX Starship it would still be breakfast.

[Elonogy @ElonogyX]

Elon Musk: "A lot of people would say, can solar energy really provide the energy that we need? A lot of people don't perhaps appreciate that solar energy is already the source of the vast majority of Earth's energy.

Without solar power, we would be a frozen ice ball at about 3 or 4 degrees above absolute zero.

So really, all we're talking about for solar electricity is taking the tiny, tiny bit of energy that humanity needs for electricity, which I emphasize is super tiny compared to the amount of solar energy that hits the Earth,

You could generate all the electricity that the United States needs with about a 100 mile by 100 mile grid of solar power. So you just take like a corner of Arizona, and that would be all the energy that the United States needs."

[Allan Quatermain⚡️ @AlQuatermain]

And here's your out-of-sample validation on Bitcoin Power Law graph extended to 2035:

- By 2030 the central trend sits in the $400K–$600K range.
- By 2035 it reaches the $1M+ zone.

PS: Using same power law with real daily market data via the Polygon API and strict year-end closing prices (i.e., resampled but essentially the same).

[Holger Wolff @Holger21M]

Using out-of-sample validation on the Bitcoin Power Law dramatically increases trust in its predictive power.
I fitted the model only on data up to 2018, then tested it on the completely unseen 2018–2026 period. The power law still predicts the long-term trajectory with shocking accuracy. This isn’t curve-fitting. It’s real predictive validity. The Bitcoin Power Law just passes one of the toughest tests in quantitative finance.
Most models collapse outside their training window.
The Power Law doesn’t. That’s why you should pay attention.
The model, trained on early Bitcoin history, continues to track the long-term trajectory remarkably well through the bull and bear cycles, even as prices hit new all-time highs.
Blue dots: Actual Bitcoin price (approximate yearly levels).
Red line: Power law model fitted only on data up to 2018.
Dashed line: Training cutoff - everything to the right is pure out-of-sample prediction.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Curiosity & adventure are my philosophy

https://t.co/kwigy1KsIZ

[DaPangDun @dapangdun]

剖析一下这篇文章并给我的反驳：

1. $BTC 不是封闭系统

文章核心逻辑是“净流入 = 历史消耗 + 保证金余额”，他把比特币当成封闭系统的会计账本。

但比特币不是封闭的死池子，而是典型的开放耗散结构（普里高津1977诺奖理论）。

该理论指出：任何维持内部秩序的系统——生命、城市、市场、区块链——都必须持续消耗低熵能量、排出熵，才能远离平衡态。

按文章逻辑，一座城市每年消耗万亿电力食物却“不生产东西”，保证金池必然枯竭——城市早该崩塌了。同理，银行业、医疗业、整个现代经济都会“必然死亡”。荒谬至极。

2. 挖矿的意义

挖矿不是“浪费”，而是比特币账本不可篡改性的热力学价格。

PoW把低熵电能转化为低熵的全球共识秩序，这正是经典耗散过程。高维持成本不是缺陷，而是产品功能的体现——省掉��，就没有这个产品了，就像不能省掉活细胞的ATP消耗。

更关键的是难度调整机制：算力跌，难度自动降。这是教科书级的负反馈自稳定（涨落中的秩序）。根本不存在“无休止死亡螺旋”。

3. 外部价值池远超想象

文章承认跨境结算、抗审查、稳定币支付“真实存在”，却说量级不够支撑市值。

请看数据：2025年稳定币on-chain结算量已达33万亿美元，超过Visa+Mastercard合计的25.5万亿美元。

全球货币体系超100万亿，跨境支付流量巨大。这个外部价值池远超文章想象，且仍在高速扩张。

4. 能源的多元化发展

现实更进一步：2026年比特币挖矿已有 超56% 使用可再生/可持续能源，大量消耗stranded power，还能帮助电网负载平衡。

全网算力虽有波动，但始终维持900+ EH/s高位，难度调整机制持续生效。

###

一旦把“封闭会计等式”换成开放耗散结构视角，后面所有“负和游戏”“死亡螺旋”的精巧推演，就全部失去了地基。比特币不是靠外部不断输血的寄生虫，而是通过持续耗散能量维持全球有序账本的活系统。这才是它的第一性本质。

#比特币 #耗散结构 #第一性原理 #加密货币

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

True currency is steadfast friendship

[看不懂的SOL @DtDt666]

兄弟们周末就别沉迷刷抖音了。

强烈推荐花3个小时看完北京大学内部投资学习课程。

投资必看！李录演讲：全球价值投资与时代

时隔5年，李录这场160分钟的价值投资思想盛宴令��醍醐灌顶。

李录极少公开演讲，每一次都弥足珍贵，

尤其是他对价值投资在中国成功践行的深度思考，

为我们提供了宝贵的本土化经验。

2026年4月8日，Himalaya Capital（喜马拉雅资本）首次发布李录在北大光华管理学院价值投资课程十周年庆典上的主旨演讲视频《全球价值投资与时代》（演讲时间：2024年12月7日）。

关于李录：查理·芒格的合伙人，芒格所说的“一生中三个最成功的投资之一”，芒格家族资产的主要管理者，被芒格称为“中国的巴菲特”。

2008年，84岁的芒格在采访中提到：“人的一生不需要做很多投资，我的财富主要来源于三次投资——伯克希尔、好市多，以及李录的喜马拉雅基金。”

李录1997年在美国创立喜马拉雅资本，至今管理资金规模约80亿美元，长期年化回报率超过20%。近年来更为人津津乐道的是，李录力荐比亚迪给巴菲特和芒格投资，帮助他们获得超过30倍的收益，成为价值投资在中国成功践行的经典案例。

本次演讲核心内容：

主题一：我们时代的困惑是什么？

全球发生了很多变化，给投资人带来了许多困惑。

���题二：对这些困惑的深度思考

探讨困惑背后的原因和本质。

主题三：中等收入陷阱与国际关系

关于中等收入国家的跨越，以及对当今国际关系的看法。

主题四：全球价值投资人如何应对时代挑战

面对关税、贸易战等挑战，价值投资者的应对之道。
价值投资的本质 回顾价值投资的起源，阐述六条价值投资的基本理念。

精彩问答环节：

1. 优质公司明显高估时，何时减持？
2. 长期持有的运气与勇气：年轻人如何在不确定性中决策？
3. 美国3.0时代与中国的改革路径
4. 如何理解“便宜的公司”？P/E应该怎么看？
5. 优秀企业家有什么共性特点？
6. 投资的意义究竟是什么？

时隔5年，李录这场160分钟的价值投资思想盛宴令人醍醐灌顶。李录极少公开演讲，每一次都弥足珍贵，尤其是他对价值投资在中国成功践行的深度思考，为我们提供了宝贵的本���化经验。

特此推荐给朋友们，值得珍藏！反复观看、深度学习。

[StarFarmHD @DouleTech]

https://t.co/cLVrhLSpay

the best

[Shabnam Parveen @shabnam_774]

Instead of watching Netflix for 2 hours, watch this guy explain why some people become successful while others stay average.

[Shabnam Parveen @shabnam_774]

🚨 In the early 2000s, a 1-hour MIT lecture quietly revealed more about quantitative trading than most people learn in an entire Wall Street career.

Most people will skip it.

It comes from Jim Simons the “Quant King” and instead of hype, he breaks down how real edge is built.

Watching it changes how you think about markets.

He shows that trading isn’t about predictions it’s about probabilities. The best strategies don’t try to be right every time, they focus on being consistently right over time. Small edges, repeated at scale, beat big guesses.

He also makes it clear that data means nothing without structure. Anyone can collect data very few can turn it into signals. The real advantage comes from models, discipline, and removing emotion from decisions.

And the biggest shift? Thinking like a system, not a trader. The winners aren’t reacting to the market they’re building machines that do.

That’s why this MIT lecture is worth your time.

Bookmark it. Watch it no matter what.

It might be the most productive hour you give your week.

[ProfitHusky @ProfitHusky]

$BTC Never wrong (super rare actually). This is all you need to outperform everyone. And I update it once a week here for free. 🙏

This macd indicator signaled HTF trend flips only 12 times in 5 years!

We are SO near a flip. I'd estimate this bear market only has 35-60 days left to it. One last big dip should make the bottom. Remember, HTF is the big money.

[Chiefy @0xChiefy]

This chart has perfectly predicted the current Bull Trap to $72K.

We’re exactly halfway through the bear cycle, and $BTC will dump to ~$41,000 in May.

Bookmark this chart and check back in 6 weeks.

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

3 things happen at the end of bear markets.

1) price cleanly breaks the cost basis of recent investors (circles).

2) idle smoking of hopium gives way to rabid clicking of the BUY button chasing the price

3) this raises the cost basis (red line transitions to green)

[Julius @jv_finance]

Bitcoin still isn’t as low as previous bear markets.

Even though Bitcoin has been in the lowest zone of the power law for two months now, it’s still not as deep as in prior bear markets.

Price would have to drop around 15% to match previous bear markets.

[David @david_eng_mba]

Bitcoin’s Floor is the Real Story.

Using a more conservative 5.8 floor exponent, and anchoring today’s floor at $65,971, the floor still rises to:

$91.5K in 1 year
$167K in 3 years
$289K in 5 years
$936K in 10 years

The floor reaches $1M around July 2036.

It is about 38.6% over the next year.

The long-run CAGR from $65,971 to $1M over that path is about 30.2%/yr.

Everyone watches the price.

Almost no one watches the level Bitcoin refuses to stay below for long.

It is time compounding underneath the asset.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

Bitcoin continues to hold on to the $65-$70k range as it is trying to form a base following its mild winter from $126k to $60k. The current level is supported by the technicals (previous highs) as well as the Bitcoin/gold ratio and the deviation of Bitcoin from its power law curve.

[🌞Sunny哥 @BTC__Sunny]

比特币巨鲸鲨鱼全线爆亏，血流成河

Glassnode链上数据炸了：

比特币从历史高位崩盘回落

持有100–10000枚BTC的巨鲸与鲨鱼

7日均线已实现亏损单日狂超2亿美元

每天2亿美金真金白银灰飞烟灭

巨鲸都在流血，市场底还远没到