Michael

[Bojie Li @bojie_li]

非常赞同 “��力不是解决重大问题的瓶颈，与现实的交互才是瓶颈”。

最近我去小米、大疆、华为、一些芯片制造产业链公司交流，发现 AI 对大部分员工的效率提升只有 50%，只有少数 “超级个体” 员工做 prototype 的时候能 10x、100x。

AI 作为助理工程师写代码、调研分析这些 2025 年的 agentic 任��都没问题。但是 agent swarm 全自主推任务这种 “数字员工” 都很难做。

因为制造业有大量的约束，有物理约束，有成本约束，有路径依赖约束，有供应链约束，有内部组织约束。这些约束还很难蒸馏成 skills。Agent 往往不是忽视这个约束就是忽视那个约束，就算 pass@k 都很低。

现在模型的持续学习能力有限，直接拿失败的 trajectory，模型团队用不上；要构建 RL 环境也很难，总不能尝试流片个几千次，或者造几千个不能用的工件吧。

形成反差的是，做数学、理论、网络安全的都觉得自己快被 AI 取代了。OpenAI 的几百篇 paper 虽然有错��，但大多数可能会被承认是对的。

我之前以为 AI 不擅长解奥数题这种 “巧思”，做理论的老师告诉我，AI 最擅长的就是这种巧思，它可以遍历上万种可能的巧思。在可形式化验证且验证成本低的领域，AI 是远远超过人类的。

这就是 raw intelligence 和在现实交互中持续学习的鸿沟。

[James Seyffart @JSeyff]

My Bloomberg Intelligence colleagues Jennie and Iza from our equity strategy team put out a note this morning on the stocks most and least correlated to AI. Here's a sample from the note with highest and least correlated quintile stocks:

[Epoch AI @EpochAIResearch]

How do Chinese AI firms make money? In a new report, @cherylwoooo and @ansonwhho identify five revenue sources and analyze how much each contributes. 🧵

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Spending on AI infrastructure is projected to average 3.6% of US GDP in the coming years.

That would represent a higher share of the economy than the investment in Canals (1836-41), Railroads (1870-90) and Electrification (1905-25) ... Combined.

[硅谷居士 @SVScholar]

我刚开始投资时，用的就是这个经典三基金组合。

后来，我逐步换成了“硅谷居士三基金组合”。

[耶律律 @Yelvlv930]

Opus 5.5 再来一弹，

两分钟看中国房地产简史，

《广厦》。

[Will Schryver @imetatronink]

@noncompliantAF The problem we have here is that the US is simply not capable of mounting any more big league war. At least not for more than a few days. The cupboard is bare.

Observant discerning people around the world are stunned by the realization the emperor is well and truly naked.

[硅谷居士 @SVScholar]

https://t.co/Y263mcsWBB

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

It was moving

[Dan Scavino Jr.🇺🇸🦅 @DanScavino]

Behind the scenes at the @WhiteHouse #StateDinner with President @realDonaldTrump, First Lady @MelaniaTrump, President Xi, and Madame Peng—With guests in the beautiful East Room…

[Katie Miller @KatieMiller]

Beautiful and stunning performance by the Army Choir at the State Dinner

[傅志彬Fu Zhibin @Eurasch]

花了两个星期的时间，在日常忙碌当中挤时间写了一万五千余字来阐述我对中国经济的观察，只因为我说过要用大家都能理解的语言说清中国经济的现状，尤其是藏在很多专业术语下的实情以及它的来龙去脉。
新博文《窥斑见豹——从一个县读懂中国经济》
https://t.co/mjRZEOf1jm

[五岳散人 @wuyuesanren]

推荐阅读

[硅谷居士 @SVScholar]

https://t.co/c7dF6v39gG

[yuya @yuya0240]

秋色に染まる上高地

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

I get blown away every time I read this paragraph by Carl Jung:

“To love someone else is easy, but to love what you are, the thing that is yourself, is just as if you were embracing a glowing red-hot iron: it burns into you and that is very painful. Therefore, to love somebody else in the first place is always an escape which we all hope for, and we all enjoy it when we are capable of it. But in the long run, it comes back on us. You cannot stay away from yourself forever, you have to return, have to come to that experiment, to know whether you really can love. That is the question-whether you can love yourself, and that will be the test.”

[Dr Jordan B Peterson @jordanbpeterson]

I read Mircea Eliade's The Sacred and the Profane at least five times over the last two decades.

I thought it was a masterpiece the first time I read it.

But every time I reread it, I thought it was better.

That's why I decided to teach a course devoted to the book.

It launches today on Peterson Academy.

What's it about?

Attention.

What grips our attention, voluntarily and involuntarily, bears on our deepest desires.

That grip is possession by what is deepest within us.

What is deepest is by definition what is sacred.

Everything depends on what is sacred. That's what makes it sacred.

The atheist or the relativist might object: nothing is sacred to me.

But

If nothing is sacred to you, your life has no sustaining meaning.

There will come a time, if it hasn't already, where you will suffer for that lack.

And

If nothing is sacred to you, then nothing matters to you. That means that you are responsible to nothing and no one.

That means that people should avoid you by all means possible.

So what should be sacred?

That is the question....

[Henry Gao @henrysgao]

What are China’s biggest concerns about AI?

A new article by Chen Yixin, China’s Minister of State Security, in the latest issue of China Cybersecurity Magazine offers some revealing clues.

Chen identifies six major risks:
1. Regime security. Hostile forces and people with ulterior motives can use deepfakes, AI-generated text and images, and automated online accounts to cheaply and massively produce political rumors, spread harmful information, and incite social divisions—waging “public-opinion wars” and “cognitive warfare” against China and directly threatening its political, institutional, and ideological security.

2. Critical infrastructure. AI can enable countries and organizations to rapidly discover vulnerabilities, automatically chain together attack paths, and carry out sophisticated hacking operations, dramatically lowering the technical barriers and costs of cyberattacks against China’s critical information infrastructure.

3. Data leakage. Foreign intelligence agencies can use AI-powered web crawlers, data mining, and profiling to collect sensitive information, including critical national data, trade secrets, and citizens’ personal information. Chinese users who process sensitive information through foreign AI products or export data abroad could also cause large-scale data leaks.

4. Closed technological ecosystems. Countries with advantages in AI theory, model architecture, and computing power may invoke “national security” to impose technology controls, entity lists, monopolize technical standards, and build closed-source ecosystems, restricting other countries’ access to advanced technologies and fragmenting global AI supply chains.

5. Structural challenges to social governance. AI creates new uncertainties for social governance and public order. Algorithmic “black boxes” and data poisoning can amplify existing social biases; misuse of personal information can trigger crises of public trust; automated decision-making creates difficult questions of accountability; and the rapid development of AI is increasingly outpacing existing laws, ethics, and regulatory mechanisms.

6. A fundamental transformation of warfare. AI is pushing warfare into an era of “intelligentization.” Whoever can use algorithms to achieve more precise sensing, judgment, and targeting will gain the initiative on the battlefield. AI is moving from an auxiliary role to a central one in intelligence fusion, decision support, target identification, combat operations, and cognitive warfare.

And what is the solution?

Chen’s answer is revealing: strengthen “Party control over the internet” and “Party control over data,” and “transform the advantages of Party leadership into the effectiveness of AI governance.”

In other words, from the CCP’s perspective, the central question is not simply AI versus no AI. Nor is it even fundamentally a contest between the US and China.

It is a contest between the US and the CCP over who gets to control AI, data, information, and ultimately the future of society.

And whoever wins that contest will decide the future of humanity.

https://t.co/9lXlS93A7h

[Take Action! @takeactionD]

I’m yet to see anything more accurate than this

[The Wonder of Tolkien @TolkienWonder]

This is one of the greatest lines by Tolkien. Filled with profound wisdom and reality for our everyday lives. I think about it often.

“Yet it is not our part to master all the tides of the world, but to do what is in us for the succour of those years wherein we are set, uprooting the evil in the fields that we know, so that those who live after may have clean earth to till. What weather they shall have is not ours to rule.”