Eureka Perspective

Climate Tech Model, macro-econ, regenerative agriculture. habitat corridors. Focus on Batteries, Solar, and EV technology. Helping investors be Green, D.L.Knepp

[Eureka Perspective @DrDuck057]

This is long, but to the point.

Understanding and Dealing with Trump…
March 7, 2025
To Understand Trump You have to take him apart and look at the pieces.
First we will look at him personally.
At the Core it is evident that Evil and Bullying are central drivers. Empathy is non-existent. Deranged may be a fitting overall description.
In terms of an operational setup he prefers chaos. No doubt his mentor Roy Cohn planted the seed.
As to a management style, he prefers the autocratic authoritarian approach where he is always in charge.
While he talks a lot about improving government efficiency and cutting the deficit, his goal of reducing taxes on the wealthy and corporations prove that a lie.
His most significant attribute is as a polished snake oil salesman. His wares are most desired by people of wealth and people who dream of wealth and most of the verbiage is lies.
His anger at the American people in general, the fact that the government charged him with inciting crimes, is central to what is really a retribution tour against America.
His beliefs and goals in Presidency 2.0 include the following, obviously not a total listing:
1. He truly believes that he will be one of the Great Presidents.
2. He believes that tariffs can generate revenue that would cover a tax cut for the wealthy.
3. He believes that the US has continued its monetary sponsorship of the world for far too long, some 80 years after the end of WWII.
4. He believes that military spending to protect the World has been one of the biggest drivers of the Government Deficit.
5. He believes too much government money is directed to ill and poor citizens through Medicaid.
6. He believes in animal spirits and the effect that they can provide towards providing the energy for economic growth. His support of the crypto scene and the excitement and speculation that it will generate is deep and follows in the animal spirit vein.
7. He believes that the growth that the economy has seen since the 2008 crash has been low quality government financed growth.
8. He likes to say that he will balance the Federal Budget through a combination of government cuts and economic growth.
Here are some Facts and History that provide a platform on which Trump plans will play. These are from a more current time than the McKinley period that Trump wants to embrace.
1. First, Trump never speaks of the Postwar Era, the term used to describe the period between 1945 and 1970, a period of strong growth following the war and before Oil inflation rose its head in the 1970’s. It was marked by political events such as the Cold War, the Civil Rights movement, and the Vietnam War. Maybe the most important headline from that period is, those were the years where the US paid down the War debt (where debt to GDP ratios started out at levels near the area of the current ratio). The people and the economy accomplished this task through strong growth in a wide range of areas including infrastructure and personal. This was accompanied by prudent financial policies that included a top income tax ratio in the 70 to 80 percent range.
2. The next step that Trump totally ignores is the damage that the Supply Side /Trickle Down economic policies that Reagan put in place as an idea in the early 1980’s have done in terms government finances. These programs did not pay for themselves and actually added to government debt along with creating more economic inequality. Ironically these programs were generated on a napkin as some infamous economists tried to figure out why the bloom came off the rose following the 25 year “Postwar Period”. Additionally, these programs are the core factors that have led to the blue collar anger that propels the current political scene.
3. If we stay focused on economic history we see that President Clinton along with his esteemed Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin actually balanced the budget during his 1990 to 1998 term. How did they do that, not by cutting taxes? Actually they balanced the Federal Budget through a combination of tax increases, spending cuts, and economic growth. The equation that works then has not changed.
4. Tariffs for Trump are a two sided coin, on the one hand he talks about them as a government revenue source (really a consumer tax) and on the other hand as a tool for leverage to get other nations to do what he wants them to do. In either case prudent economics does not paint a favorable picture.
5. One area where prudent economists would agree with Trump, is the low quality growth that was generated by Republican appointed Fed Reserve Chair Bernanke. The QE, cheap money’ policies that were started in 2011 and basically continued into 2021 are a eleven year legacy problem that still has not been totally unraveled. A lot of that cheap money financed overbuilt real estate projects and private equity adventures. Trump was a participant in borrowing a significant amount of that cheap money.
6. Inflation is a topic that everyone wants to demonize. The fact is, monopolization is a big factor in inflation, big companies have the ability to figure out who they can charge more, and AI makes that easier. Trumps policies’ tend to move investment money to the largest corporations and encourage that thread.
7. Moving forward to another topic in the total equation, one that Trump not only ignores but totally disses, Climate Change. Much of the government investment that the Biden administration pushed in partnership with others was in what I would call the Climate Tech area, the combination of chips, EV’s, Solar, etc. The risks being taken on by the Trump administration by not continuing investment in this area, in terms of money, the lives and health of the populace, are real.
Here is where we take a look at the equation that combines Trump’s underlying personal issues with his 2.0 goals and then insert the realities outlined above. From this equation we can make an attempt to see what may be tried, what has a chance of working, and what will be the eventual fallout. We take a look at where pitfalls may appear in the reasoning. Some big questions would seem to appear, 1) can the US economy weather all this?; 2) Can regular people survive from a health and nutrition standpoint?; 3) Can the US maintain a major global presence on the one hand while on the other hand it slips into a form of semi-isolation on the world stage?
1. First cutting the deficit is a laudable goal, Clinton and Rubin have shown how to do it, it is by raising taxes, cutting expenditures, and creating real growth.
2. Cutting government waste is also a laudable goal, there no doubt are excesses in places, but cutting health care and health research are not options that the country can support.
3. Social Security is an asset of the people who have worked. Everyone who has ever worked has had a percentage of their income paid into the Social Security Trust Fund which at this point totals around 2.8 trillion dollars. Old timers remember the “Lock Box” conversation during the Bush – Gore debate. The Money that Americans’ put into the Trust Fund, has been borrowed by the government and the trust fund has been given IOU’s. Interestingly the Trust Fund actually has regular income in the form of interest paid by the government toward the IOU’s. Naturally the interest is paid in the form of the IOU’s and when interest rates rise, IOU income rises. Due to the low birth/death rate the Trust Fund will be depleted in 2035 and unless something changes the payouts will be matched to inputs which will require around a 17 % cut in payout to retirees, not the end of Social Security as some would like say. Obviously more immigration would help that part of the equation immensely.
4. Illegal immigration has to be dealt with. It is a problem that should have been dealt with legislatively many years ago. It is a fact that the U.S. birth/death ratio means we need a substantial number of immigrants, and not just the highly skilled. Congress need to set the rules through legislation and get legal immigration back on track.
5. De-regulation can probably generate cost savings for corporations but at what cost to human health and safety. Who has presented the research for the benefits that the populace can review?
6. A pullback from the global scene should allow a large cut in the military budget, maybe even enough that along with a tax increase on the upper levels can balance the budget.
7. Tariffs are not a proven instrument to cut deficits.
8. A big question, what does cutting taxes for corporations and the wealthy do to enhance the lives of average American? We know Trickle Down does not work.
9. And lastly, it is a well-known fact that everyone sees with their own eyes the increasing devastation caused by climate change, the fires, flooding, winds, rains, storms, etc. The problem is everyone wants someone else to pay for the Climate Tech needed. Since no one want to step up and contribute funds to fix things the logical answer that would work to the common good would be to tax the effects that contribute to Climate Change.
10. The “Person of the Century” will be the person who can paint a clear picture of the Climate Change Challenge and bring together the forces to tackle it. The Baby Boomers never found that person although Jeremy Rifkin came close. The younger generations and non-Republicans have a wide open field to walk into.
To summarize, how does one stage one’s life to survive and grow during the time that Trump policies decimate our country. First, we know Trump is working with an unworkable equation. We live in a consumer economy where the consumer drives 70 percent of the economy. So it is important to monitor the numbers, number one is consumer sentiment, second is consumer incomes, third is GNP, gross national product. Monitoring Price data goes along with this, like, are we in an inflationary or deflationary economy? Also, the stock market is something to watch, it affects the fat cats more than the average person, but anyone building a retirement account is affected.
So, here are two equations to ponder the differences, 1) an unworkable equation, the one Trump is expressing, of tariffs, and tax cuts for the wealthy do not equal a balanced budget and economic growth 2) a workable equation that history has confirmed, one that can produce strong growth and a balanced budget. Details are outlined throughout this presentation.

[Eureka Perspective @DrDuck057]

Two Windows...
Trump's World is imploding. Makes it a very dangerous time to be in the markets. The picture window view is very bearish, but you need to look in the little window in the back to see what Bessent is cooking up in the kitchen.

[Greg Gunthorp @GGunthorp]

Figure out how to scale regenerative local meat and the financial authorities might even come after you.

[Mariana Mazzucato @MazzucatoM]

Anyone who has followed me for a while knows I love to swim. What I have watched happen to the places I swim is a public good quietly becoming a private one, at exactly the moment a hotter climate makes access to water more urgent, not less.

We need a mission: a swimmable place within fifteen minutes of everyone's home by the end of this decade.

[robert @rfhirschfeld]

America doesn't depend on other nations to sustain us? Let's check...

- 90% of potash fertilizer is imported

- 70% of world's pesticides come from China

- More than half of hired farmworkers are foreign-born

- We import 60% of our fruit and 35% of our vegetables...

[Eureka Perspective @DrDuck057]

Things on Track…

Today we continue to see the long-term interest rate picture showing a declining 30-05 YC.

Again, to me, that continues to indicate short-term rates are being threatened by the FED and Trump's "baby war, I didn't really lose" scenario, while the relative weakness of long-term rates tells the real inflation story.

[Greg Gunthorp @GGunthorp]

Hey @trentloos , with the lettuce recall is now a good time to remind rural America and farmers that the “local” “small farmer” brands they see in conventional retail and food service are likely just a different label from big ag?

[Eureka Perspective @DrDuck057]

So, What is the Plan?

After digging deep into some of my fundamental market material over the past few days, then blogging a bit, and then sleeping on it, I do want to over this weekend talk about what I call the PLAN.

First most Americans, other than those in the top 1 %, are in survival mode and have been since Trump got in the Whitehouse in 2016. Sure, we had four years of Biden, courtesy of Jim Clyborn, not the electorate, but the Black Trump umbrella, has kept things on the darkside for ten years.

While most of the economic and market talk these days is about AI and whether it is a bubble or not, that is probably not where one should focus. The sleeping cockroach is how all this market euphoria is being financed, and that is through government debt that is flowing through defense contractors into market liquidity. The top 1% have their fingers deeply into the pile of crap.

The things that I talk about in this blog are my attempt to stay above water financially and hopefully be involved in what happens after Trump. Growing up as I did in a deep red farming community in the 1960’s I remember the Goldwater hysteria, not much different than the Trump Hysteria in 2024.

A couple of weeks ago on a trip back to this area, I found it illuminating that Trump was not mentioned in conversations. When I asked a question with political implications the prime initial response was “I am a Conservative”. That should tell Democrats a lot, people want to forget Trump but they do not plan to give up on all the lies he expressed, they want to believe those lies even though things like the climate change hoax is burning up and blowing away their farms.

They just want to have a new person saying those lies, and Republicans take note, I did not hear anyone even mention the name of Vance or Rubio, two people in the core of the failures.

There will be more to say over the coming months…

[Eureka Perspective @DrDuck057]

End of week Commentary…looking Deeper into the Interest Rate Scene

Something is happening that I don’t think the Bond Guru’s have quite got their arms around yet. Maybe it probably would be beneficial to take a look at the 30-05 year yield curve which Alan Greenspan always said gives the truest picture of the overall economy. The 30 Year involves long term inflation trends while the 5 year is somewhat isolated from FED 90 day FF rate activity.

So the 30-05 shows the relationship between long term and short term inflation isolated from the Old School FED games.I say isolated from Old School FED games because I see FED Chair Warsh as being a New School player. As it became apparent around September 2025 that Powell’s grip on things was going to change and then in April 2026 as the rollover into Warsh’s term was falling in place we saw two stages of the 30 year losing to the 5 year. Powell came out of corporate America where everyone thinks FF rates govern the economy, while Warsh basically came out of Academia which understands that the 30 year is the measure to watch, it is where inflation is measured.

See Chart below.
You will note recently, June 18-July 15, that there was a dead cat bounce in the 30-05 relationship as the Old School players saw the Iran Escapades as leading to long term inflation. I see this abating soon as the world continues to be educating itself in how to live with less oil and be more green. I don’t see FF rates changing for the rest of the year, with all the liquidity being forced into the markets through FED Deficits there is no need to borrow that much or mess with short term rates, but I do see long-term rates declining for the reasons I mentioned in yesterday’s post on how Corporate America gamed higher margins into their operating plans after Trump was elected and how that will be reflected in Year over Year comparisons of CPI and PPI for the rest of the year.

[Eureka Perspective @DrDuck057]

This is a new chart that I will be watching over the next five years. SPCX / CAT. I think it will tell you when the worm has left the fields and is floating in the sky. SPCX is at this moment, 0.1414 of CAT price.

[Eureka Perspective @DrDuck057]

SPCX entered the top end of our sweet spot for engagement this morning, this is a wide spot, 77.40 to 122.40, but down the road I see AI data centers all located in space, not in your cornfield.

[Mariana Mazzucato @MazzucatoM]

The common good is not a nice-to-have appended to growth, nor is it achieved by correcting market failures after the fact. It is an objective in its own right: an economy deliberately and collectively shaped for people and planet.

Good discussion at the Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana @uamxoficial in Mexico City yesterday on The Common Good Economy. Thank you to Leonel Pérez Espósito, to @gabdutrenit, Juan Carlos Moreno Brid and Mariana Rangel Padilla for their comments, and to students Maribel García and Daniel Chávez for their contributions. Thanks also to Juan Manuel Corona for moderating.

[Eureka Perspective @DrDuck057]

Epic battle today, with interest rate analysis added.
the market top hedgers are standing their ground and adding to short positions, this is holding back the upside breakout in stocks, but is good in terms of building upside power. The next step in adding power to the forces built up by declining gold and silver is to see the ignition of a long bond rally, we are watching TLT ETF closely today.

This is what we have been waiting for since June 1.
Expanding on the interest rate scene from a market technicals standpoint here are my thoughts. The RSI Ladder from the 02Yr to 30Yr has the 2Yr RSI at 51.3 and the 30Yr RSI at 62.9, this would indicate that the market is more bearish on long bonds than short rates, all this as inflation indicators are showing signs of rolling over probably because corporations in December 2024 anticipated that Trump policies were going to be inflationary and that they should raise margins immediately. Now as those views are vindicated, they can basically coast for a while as the mid-terms come in focus.

[Eureka Perspective @DrDuck057]

Epic battle today, with interest rate analysis added.
the market top hedgers are standing their ground and adding to short positions, this is holding back the upside breakout in stocks, but is good in terms of building upside power. The next step in adding power to the forces built up by declining gold and silver is to see the ignition of a long bond rally, we are watching TLT ETF closely today.

This is what we have been waiting for since June 1.
Expanding on the interest rate scene from a market technicals standpoint here are my thoughts. The RSI Ladder from the 02Yr to 30Yr has the 2Yr RSI at 51.3 and the 30Yr RSI at 62.9, this would indicate that the market is more bearish on long bonds than short rates, all this as inflation indicators are showing signs of rolling over probably because corporations in December 2024 anticipated that Trump policies were going to be inflationary and that they should raise margins immediately. Now as those views are vindicated, they can basically coast for a while as the mid-terms come in focus.

[Eureka Perspective @DrDuck057]

Multipliers Leading the Charge…

I often talk about the effect of the Monetary Multipliers, those bullish for stock prices are again: Declining Gold, Declining Oil, Declining Dollar, Declining 30-05 YC, and a Declining 2 year rate. At this juncture the gold action is the most important, while 2 year rates are a total non-event.

Eyes wide open at this time, market is up against resistance, and the hedge sellers have been very active lately, if this market punches through the resistance it will have power.

Keep in mind this is a government debt financed liquidity event, not the creation of a strong economy.

[Mariana Mazzucato @MazzucatoM]

In the old economics, doing good is a correction. In an economics of the common good, it is an objective we design and work on together.

Looking forward to speaking at the Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana in Mexico City tomorrow on The Common Good Economy, with commentary from Gabriela Dutrénit, Juan Carlos Moreno Brid and Mariana Rangel Padilla, and contributions from students Maribel García and Daniel Chávez.

16 July | 15:00 CST | Auditorio Javier Mina, UAM Xochimilco | Watch online ➡️ https://t.co/ZWAGwsneuk

[Mariana Mazzucato @MazzucatoM]

A rich discussion today at the National Palace of Culture with ministers and advisers on Guatemala's National Dialogue for Productive, Inclusive and Sustainable Development. I came to listen.

The question being asked here is a different one: not how to grow faster, but how to grow with direction, and for whom.

Take school meals. Treated as a mission and sourced from campesino and Indigenous farmers, a single programme nourishes children, gives small producers a market, creates decent work and keeps public money in local economies.

More on a mission-oriented approach to school meals ➡️ https://t.co/X0XJKYROS7