DreamXBT 🍊

Liquidated degen gambler

[DreamXBT 🍊 @DreamXbt]

1)
Honesty time. So far my total loss has been 20000$ over 3 years. Blew out multiple accounts. I took trades before trigger and didnt even let them run to tp. I think that due to my previous losses i cut winner too early as fear made me think i would lose that unrealised pl.

[degentrading @degentradingLSD]

Pre Market Thoughts - 30 Jul 26

Yields are higher across the curve post FOMC despite Warsh not hiking as the market seems to test him. Huge amounts of new information to digest today so let me start off with a quick recap.

Across the past few days, if you followed me on X or on Telegram - i have made several references to Leosold or "Which pod blew up? the Leopod". This stemmed purely from observing the flows that started coming in through the market as well as noticing the timing of the execution which in my mind matches what prime brokers do on portfolio liquidations. Yesterday's price action in the US time zone was no different with several of Leo names coming under heavy pressure - $NBIS, $BE, $SNDK, $SHAZ to name a few. If you were in my telegram, or X - i also mentioned that i got out of my $MU dip purchases. Quickly enough, yesterday marked the first instance of relative $MU weakness against $SNDK. Why is this happening? Possibly because $MU is a memory favourite name and held in greater quantities because "it is more stable". Yesterday was probably the start of funds who needed to degross down in $MU.

Post the heavy US close, Asia was weighted down as well with $KOSPI down 1.2% and $NKY up ~0.7%. $0660 was down about 7% while $285A remains unchanged. My take is that alot of the selling on $0660 has actually gone through already. Asia semis faced the deleveraging earlier. Over the next 2 days, it will be a battleground for the US semi funds who need/forced to degross and funds with cash who can deploy.

Midday into Asia, FT then released a piece on Situational Awareness LP - Leopold's fund - saying that Leopold was looking to raise cash from investors or sell off parts of the portfolio to raise cash. This probably got started last friday - which explains the price action. At this point, i believe we are at the tail end of Leo's liquidation flows. However, this is not an all clear signal because some of the other AI funds are in the midst of degrossing. Why did Leopold get hit so hard? First of all, Leopold probably did not start with leverage - however as prices came down to levels that he thought was underpriced, he added. Positioning then became a curse especially as we then got hit with the hardest momentum drawdown since 2000.

With this - Leopold and other fund's being margin called is a clearing event for risk. The companies stay the same, this is when cash is KING. I talked about how in a cascade, the optionality value of cash rises - this is when you get to maximally utilise it. My personal belief is that AI is not going away. This is an AI supercycle. The most important thing is to last the journey.

My game plan going forward is very simple - I already have my levels on the assets that i want to buy. In the mean time i will also be running a TWAP bid across these assets until i have reached my maximum allocation. There is nothing certain in life besides death, however levels now are attractive (and can get more attractive). I dont think it makes alot of sense to try to time an exact bottom, because this is a liquidation driven sell off.

Another thing that turns me very bullish is that finally SPX is getting hit - correlations are rising and the VIX has rose. There is nothing better for a semis portfolio right now than the SPX getting decimated. If only you are in pain, that is not good. If the entire market is in pain, then there will be policy relief.

I would also caution people to not expect the markets of April and May to come back. What will ensure will be an initial V shape bounce before dribbling down and a slow grind up. Why? Because the leveraged apes got rinsed. The people and participants who are left are the doubters and those with patience. AI stocks on cheap valuations can stay cheap and will need to prove themselves over time. However given the exponential nature of the industry, i strongly believe that this will still be the best sector for gains.

On a longer term horizon, the shortage in compute is not going away. Neoclouds with the ability to serve OS models will be able to internalise inference margins as well. For those looking for compute data you can find it at (https://t.co/WVEnDanftI) under the Data tab. Those monitoring memory prices can also view it under the that tab.

I have made several improvements to the terminal - right now on the Watchlist, you will be able to customise it - it will show you a heat map of the things that you are looking at. The newsfeed can also be customised for your keywords - this is useful for those who want to utilise it to track particular keywords.

For those who want telegram alerts - you can set it up in the Alerts tab as well.

Good luck!

[DreamXBT 🍊 @DreamXbt]

I just hope $poly token release is in Q1-Q2 of this year and we get details soon. Team shouldn't be teasing a token that's like a year away just to farm their users.

[DreamXBT 🍊 @DreamXbt]

@Princeblog02 @coinfoin_ @yzilabs @OpenEden_X @PendleIntern @pendle_fi With pendle yt, the invested capital goes to zero closer to maturity. so the 1000 is gone and you earn 2000 if all goes to plan

[DreamXBT 🍊 @DreamXbt]

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[DreamXBT 🍊 @DreamXbt]

@BTC_y_tho eth 🤣

[DreamXBT 🍊 @DreamXbt]

Wonder if this is the pendle integration finally dropping $elixir

[Elixir @elixir]

07.31.2024

[Puffer Finance 🐡 @puffer_finance]

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[Puffer Finance 🐡 @puffer_finance]

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[Puffer Finance 🐡 @puffer_finance]

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[Puffer Finance 🐡 @puffer_finance]

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[Puffer Finance 🐡 @puffer_finance]

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[Puffer Finance 🐡 @puffer_finance]

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1/10

[DreamXBT 🍊 @DreamXbt]

@elixir Lets see if i got any

[DreamXBT 🍊 @DreamXbt]

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[DreamXBT 🍊 @DreamXbt]

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[Elixir @elixir]

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[DreamXBT 🍊 @DreamXbt]

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[DreamXBT 🍊 @DreamXbt]

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[DreamXBT 🍊 @DreamXbt]

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[DreamXBT 🍊 @DreamXbt]

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