The biggest lesson from $CRDO and $ALAB comeback..
It's that both stocks fell 60%+ while the underlying businesses were growing 100%-200%+.
$CRDO collapsed from $214 to $72 despite revenue eventually growing 206% for FY26.
$ALAB fell from $263 to roughly $100 while revenue was still growing triple digits. Then both went on to become some of the best-performing stocks in the market.
I think too many investors confuse price action with business performance.
The reality is that high-beta AI infra names routinely experience brutal drawdowns because expectations get ahead of fundamentals. When sentiment breaks, multiples compress far faster than the business deteriorates.
The question during a 50% drawdown isn't "how much is the stock down?"
The question is whether the business is still executing.
that's where the real money is made..
🔴 SpaceX's first trading day was ABSOLUTELY WILD:
Retail investors purchased a net $93.8 million of SpaceX shares on its debut day, the largest single-day net retail purchase at any IPO on record, according to Vanda Research.
$SPCX also accounted for ~4% of all single-stock retail turnover on Friday, with net purchases running at more than 3.5 TIMES the pace of the next most purchased stock, Nvidia $NVDA.
SpaceX closed its debut session at $161.11, having priced at $135 and opened at $150, giving the company a market capitalization of ~$2.20 trillion, the 6th largest among publicly traded US companies, behind Amazon $AMZN at $2.54 trillion and ahead of Broadcom $AVGO at $1.81 trillion.
At this valuation, SpaceX is ~$700 billion larger than Tesla $TSLA and more than twice the size of Eli Lilly $LLY, Micron $MU, and Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B.
Retail investors showed up for SpaceX in a way not seen at any IPO in recent history.
$MSFT 10 years ago:
• $50/share (split-adjusted basis)
• 21x earnings
• Written off as a legacy Windows-and-Office giant that missed mobile with Azure a distant #2 behind $AMZN AWS
$MSFT today:
• $390/share
• 21x earnings
• Enterprise AI distribution layer with Intelligent Cloud at a ~$135B revenue run-rate and ~$630B of commercial RPO (+99% YoY)
Microsoft sits at a decade-low valuation because the market is pricing in three fears: AI capex pressure, OpenAI concentration and risk that AI erodes the per-seat subscription model Microsoft was built on.
But the part the market may be missing is Microsoft's distribution rail for enterprise AI and how Copilot converts the seat base from a thing AI might shrink into the channel AI gets sold through.
Add ~$630B of pre-sold backlog and you’re paying a melting-ice-cube multiple for the company holding the match.
$ETH is now the most oversold it has EVER been in its history.
- Down -70% from its ATH
- Price at the same level as 4 years ago
- Monthly RSI more oversold than the 2018 and 2022 bear market bottoms
In the last bear cycle, ETH crashed -82% from its ATH and formed a bottom in June 2022
Do you think the bottom is in for this cycle or will ETH go lower ?
The memory story isn’t over yet.
As AI workloads continue to grow, demand for HBM, DRAM, NAND, and data storage infrastructure could keep the memory supercycle alive well into 2026. While most investors focus on the AI chip makers, the companies supplying memory, storage, controllers, and manufacturing equipment may be some of the biggest beneficiaries.
Names worth watching include $MU Micron, $LRCX Lam Research, $AMAT Applied Materials, $NTAP NetApp, $STX Seagate, $WDC Western Digital, $MRVL Marvell, $RMBS Rambus, and $SIMO Silicon Motion.
If AI is the engine, memory is the fuel. Don’t overlook the companies building the infrastructure behind the boom.
Google and Microsoft now have a combined AI backlog of more than $1 Trillion
- Google $GOOGL now has a $467.6 Billion revenue backlog up from $92.4B in the same quarter last year
- Microsoft $MSFT now has a $633B revenue backlog up from $321B in the same quarter last year
The big questions everyone have
Is the SaaS sector correction soon to be over?
Most retraced 20-40% from their last month high.
$NOW -29%
$CRM -22%
$ADBE -28.29%
$ORCL -29%
Quite a draw down that we could take advantage of soon
Russell 2000 had gained 19% YTD
The biggest three positions in the index are:
Micron $MU
Bloom Energy $BE
Credo Trchnologies $CRDO
Even in small caps you are playing the ai theme.
🚨 Micron $MU Q3 earnings are around the corner.
✅ This guidance is insane 🔥🔥🔥🔥
“We expect FQ3 revenue to be a record $33.5 billion, plus or minus $750 million; gross margin to be
approximately 81.0%; and operating expenses to be approximately $1.40 billion. Based on a share count
of approximately 1.15 billion shares, we expect EPS to be a record $19.15 per share, plus or minus $0.40.
We expect higher price, lower cost and favorable mix to all contribute to gross margin expansion in Q3.”
Decentralized AI coins with an ok chart/can watch:
$TAO
$VVV (still unsure on this one tbh)
$WLD (horrible to trade)
$AKT (not bad)
$GRASS (trades like shit)
$OPG (sleeper?)
$ROBO (hard to trade)
$VIRTUAL