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Dynamic Wealth Group - Brad Barrie CFP, ChFC
@DynamicAlphaSol
We partner with financial advisors, family offices, endowments and other successful investors to help them meet their investment objectives with confidence.
United States
Twitter'a katıldığı tarih September 2022
817 Takip Edilen
427 Takipçi
402 Gönderi
Recession probability by firm:
Goldman Sachs: 25%
JPMorgan: 35%
Ed Yardeni (stagflation): 35%
Moody's model: 49%
The 1970s did not announce themselves. They arrived gradually, then all at once.
The question is whether policymakers will repeat the same mistakes.
#Recession #Stagflation #WallStreet #Economy #Investing
February PPI surged 0.7% -- more than double consensus.
Year-over-year wholesale inflation hit 3.4%. Core PPI at a 3-year high of 3.9%.
That data was collected BEFORE oil hit $100.
The inflation pipeline is about to get much worse.
#Inflation #PPI #Economy #FederalReserve #Markets
The Fed is trapped.
Cut rates = inflation spirals.
Raise rates = economy breaks.
Hold rates = both problems worsen.
On March 18, they chose "hold and hope." Markets now price a rate HIKE by October.
This is the textbook stagflation trap.
#FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy #Finance
Q4 GDP: 0.7%
February payrolls: -92,000
Consumer sentiment: 55.5 (2026 low)
Oil: +84% YTD
The economy was already slowing. Then the Iran war hit.
The 1970s playbook is back. Few are prepared.
#Stagflation #Economy #GDP #Recession #MacroEconomy
Takip edebileceğin hesaplar
Ram Pi
@ram_3141
Short term momentum trader, yes its all about execution. My tweets and trades are shared for entertainment purposes only, not financial advice.
Dietmar
@Dibber88738627
Interests: science, wisdom, strategies.
ThomasD
@ThomasDavik
Economist seeking truth across political divides. Building bridges towards truth through debates on geopolitics, tech, and sustainability. Follow for more.
War risk insurance for shipping through the Gulf:
Before: 0.25% of hull value
Now: 10%+
A single VLCC voyage went from $250,000 to $14 million. Charter rates quadrupled to $800,000/day.
Rerouting costs alone add $8 billion per month to global shipping.
#Shipping #Insurance #OilMarkets #GlobalTrade #Energy
The IEA authorized a 400-million-barrel emergency oil release. The largest in history.
Markets responded by pushing prices HIGHER.
Why? The release covers roughly 20 days of the shortfall. The conflict is now in its fourth week.
The math does not work.
#OilMarkets #SPR #Energy #EmergencyReserves #Commodities
Brent crude: $71 on February 27. $119 on March 20.
+67% in three weeks.
The IEA calls this the worst oil supply disruption in history. Worse than 1973. Worse than 1979. Over 8 million barrels per day removed from global markets.
#OilPrices #BrentCrude #Energy #MiddleEast #Markets
Before the war: 138 ships per day through the Strait of Hormuz.
Now: fewer than 4.
That is a 97% collapse in the world's most critical shipping lane. One-fifth of global oil flows through this 21-mile passage.
Few grasp what this means for every consumer on earth.
#StraitOfHormuz #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics #GlobalTrade
Since 1973, every oil shock sent gold higher.
1973 Embargo: +140%
1979 Iran Revolution: +132%
1990 Gulf War: +5%
2022 Ukraine: +8.5%
2026 Iran War: -19.7%
This is the first oil crisis in modern history to crash gold. The difference? Dollar strength.
#Gold #OilCrisis #Markets #HistoricalData #Investing
Every major bank still targets gold above $5,000.
JP Morgan: $6,300
Deutsche Bank: $6,000
UBS: $6,200
Goldman Sachs: $5,400
Current price: $4,488.
That is 20-40% upside. Wall Street is not retreating. The crash is technical, not fundamental.
#Gold #WallStreet #Investing #Commodities #Finance
Recession probability by firm:
Goldman Sachs: 25%
JPMorgan: 35%
Ed Yardeni (stagflation): 35%
Moody's model: 49%
The 1970s did not announce themselves. They arrived gradually, then all at once.
The question is whether policymakers will repeat the same mistakes.
#Recession #Stagflation #WallStreet #Economy #Investing
February PPI surged 0.7% -- more than double consensus.
Year-over-year wholesale inflation hit 3.4%. Core PPI at a 3-year high of 3.9%.
That data was collected BEFORE oil hit $100.
The inflation pipeline is about to get much worse.
#Inflation #PPI #Economy #FederalReserve #Markets
The Fed is trapped.
Cut rates = inflation spirals.
Raise rates = economy breaks.
Hold rates = both problems worsen.
On March 18, they chose "hold and hope." Markets now price a rate HIKE by October.
This is the textbook stagflation trap.
#FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy #Finance
Q4 GDP: 0.7%
February payrolls: -92,000
Consumer sentiment: 55.5 (2026 low)
Oil: +84% YTD
The economy was already slowing. Then the Iran war hit.
The 1970s playbook is back. Few are prepared.
#Stagflation #Economy #GDP #Recession #MacroEconomy
The IEA authorized a 400-million-barrel emergency oil release. The largest in history.
Markets responded by pushing prices HIGHER.
Why? The release covers roughly 20 days of the shortfall. The conflict is now in its fourth week.
The math does not work.
#OilMarkets #SPR #Energy #EmergencyReserves #Commodities
Brent crude: $71 on February 27. $119 on March 20.
+67% in three weeks.
The IEA calls this the worst oil supply disruption in history. Worse than 1973. Worse than 1979. Over 8 million barrels per day removed from global markets.
#OilPrices #BrentCrude #Energy #MiddleEast #Markets
Before the war: 138 ships per day through the Strait of Hormuz.
Now: fewer than 4.
That is a 97% collapse in the world's most critical shipping lane. One-fifth of global oil flows through this 21-mile passage.
Few grasp what this means for every consumer on earth.
#StraitOfHormuz #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics #GlobalTrade
Since 1973, every oil shock sent gold higher.
1973 Embargo: +140%
1979 Iran Revolution: +132%
1990 Gulf War: +5%
2022 Ukraine: +8.5%
2026 Iran War: -19.7%
This is the first oil crisis in modern history to crash gold. The difference? Dollar strength.
#Gold #OilCrisis #Markets #HistoricalData #Investing
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