Market Trends

Economic and Market insights, Charts Analysis, Not a financial advisor! .

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The market is now pricing in a 50% chance of a US recession by June 2025.

The percentage has more than doubled over the last month and is up from just 10% in July.

Furthermore, the market is pricing in a 50% probability that the Fed will cut rates by at least 200 basis points over the next 8 months.

By comparison, the Federal Reserve expects 150 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025.

This comes after a 50 basis point rate reduction on Wednesday which marked the largest surprise for markets since 2008.

The market is clearly pricing-in a recession.

[Brew Markets @brewmarkets]

History repeats.

September 18, 2007:

[Market Trends @E_macro1]

50bp shouldn't be a good sign! JP has emphasized the message several times that the economy is FINE, this tells you its NOT! you can see below how the market is confused.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

US yield curve steepens following jumbo Fed rate cut. 2s/10s yield spread now at +7.2bps.

[Market Trends @E_macro1]

Let the fun begin!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points in their first rate cut since March 2020.

This officially marks the most surprising Fed decision since 2009.

[Market Trends @E_macro1]

#Gold ATH with rates cuts, dollar fall, and fears of a mild recession.. High probability that gold will reach higher levels this year.

[Ai Business Journal @ArchieIntel]

🇺🇸 FED TO CUT RATES BY 0.50% - JPMorgan

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The difference between the 2-year Treasury yield and the Fed interest rates dropped to -1.69%, the most in at least 35 years.

This gap is now even larger than in 2008 and in 1989, a few months before the recession began.

The 2-year Treasury yield is considered a leading indicator for the next Fed’s interest rate moves.

In other words, the bond market expects that the Fed will be cutting rates at a rapid pace in the coming months.

This has been driven by increasing evidence of the deteriorating labor market and many indicators suggesting this trend will continue.

Is the Fed behind the curve?

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The US CPI report is in line with the consensus forecasts with an important exception -- hotter monthly core inflation (0.3% versus 0.2%).
Given the extreme degree of "data point dependency" in the marketplace, immediate asset price reactions include higher rates and lower stock futures.
#economy #markets #inflation #federalreserve #cpi #econtwitter

[Market Trends @E_macro1]

$AAPL struggling here

[Market Trends @E_macro1]

$AAPL went above trending channel, and tends to go lower with RSI showing lower highs

[Market Trends @E_macro1]

$NVDA as expected, welcome back! looks to me that its done with consolidation at this level and ready for another breakout!

[Market Trends @E_macro1]

$NVDA broke the trend line with a high posibility to bounce back within support ($95-105) range

[Market Trends @E_macro1]

$LCID following the pattern and the broad market rise after the recent inflation data. There is high probability we will see a bull rally after surpassing $4.2

[Market Trends @E_macro1]

$LCID first time 50 & 200 days averges crossing since March 2022 which is a good technical signal and the stock is still moving within a pattern with higher buying pressure on the selling line at $4.2 (higher lows)..

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

This yield curve inversion is WORSE than 1929 and 2008

Buckle up

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

The 2-10s yield curve has turned positive again. If it closes here, it'll be the first time it ends the session with the 10-year higher than the 2-year yield since 2022. Traders are viewing the latest jobs report as allowing the Fed to cut enough to prevent a deep recession.

[Market Trends @E_macro1]

The recent downfall of oil prices was due a combination of trading liquidity factors related to hedge funds and currency carry trade. Plus, China weaker demand and US over supply. Surprisingly, Libya shutdown and OPEC+ decision to delay its production qouta didn't have much effect on oil prices.

[Market Trends @E_macro1]

immigration is driving the employment here. This must have an negative impact citizens jobs opportunities and wages, yet it will lower the cost on companies and increase their margins! its like the government is serving the elite!

[Ayesha Tariq, CFA @AyeshaTariq]

Ouch! China's property stocks are back to 2008 lows.

[Market Trends @E_macro1]

comprehensive labor market situation breakdown by @GregDaco! which supports the 25bps cut. still inflation figures next week will determine the FOMC decision.

[Gregory Daco @GregDaco]

🇺🇸August #jobsreport: Softening, not collapsing

✅Payrolls +142k
🟠Private +118k
🟠Gds +10k
🟠Svc +108k
🟠Gov +24k

🔼Diffusion 53%
⚠️Revisions -86k

✅Hours +0.3%

✅#Unemployment 4.2% (-0.1pt)
✅Part rate 62.7% (flat)

💵Wages +0.4% m/m
🔼Growth 3.8% y/y (+0.2pt)