Early Alpha X

I post the stocks I actually own.
Buy/sell receipts + the valuation math.
$SOFI $AMZN $XRP $PLTR
Not financial advice.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

The $SOFI debate isn’t really $30 vs $130.

The bigger question is what EPS looks like once the newer businesses have 12–18 months to mature.

$1 EPS × 35 = $35
$2 EPS × 35 = $70
$3 EPS × 35 = $105

Same multiple. Completely different outcome.

Curious where you land on the 2029 framework now @Tim_Sweeney_TAR @Jbird00427 👀

Receipts over hype.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@jsouthard_ Did the $16.34.
Still $21.
Not waiting for $SOFI at $18 again.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@TheLongInvest Team $SOFI
$0.60 × 35x = $21.
Added $16.34 today.
$NU can win deposits. I own the $17 ticket.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@DiligentPlane @anthonynoto Added again to my $SOFI position. Keep the dip going✌🏼

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

$SOFI add @ $16.34
25x on $0.60 = $15.
35x = $21.
I’m $1.34 above the bank case.
I still added.
Would you wait for $15
or buy $16 because $21 still works?

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@GrindeOptions Race in the 2030s.
I added $17 because 2026 is $21 if mix holds.
HOOD can win the tape. $SOFI still wins the entry.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@MarcosMillaYT I’d rather own $SOFI at $17 than chase $HOOD
$0.60 × 35x = $21.
HOOD is priced. $SOFI still has a multiple fight.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@UltraVested @Tim_Sweeney_TAR $25 on 2027 at 30x is a different year.
I mark 2026: $0.60 × 35x = $21.
If $0.84 prints in 2027, $25 is fair.
I added $17 on the 2026 number.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

$SOFI is $17.
I use $0.60 2026 EPS × 35x = $21.

Two separate risks:

Tax stays 21% → $0.60 might not print.

It’s just a lender → 25x / $15.

I added $17 assuming fee mix holds and EPS is close to $0.60.

Which breaks first - the tax line or the multiple?
@Tim_Sweeney_TAR

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@Tim_Sweeney_TAR Then we’re on the same side.
Multiple is the fight.
I’m still 35x on 2026 EPS, not a PEG story.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@Tim_Sweeney_TAR Then the tax line isn’t the thing that breaks $0.60.
Multiple is.
25x vs 35x is still the fight. I’m on 35x.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@stevenfiorillo $25B of card volume on-chain is infrastructure.
It’s not $21 by itself.
Throughput ≠ fee mix.
I added $17 because 35x on $0.60 still works if this becomes fees.
If it’s just rails with thin take-rate, it’s a 25x bank.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

I think this is too simplistic.

“Rates ease and SOFI works” isn’t really the thesis.

Banks make money on the spread between what they earn on assets and what they pay for funding.

If rates rise, asset yields can rise too - and the impact depends on how quickly deposits/funding costs reprice.

For $SOFI, I’m watching NIM + funding mix + EPS, not just the direction of rates.

That’s a much more interesting debate.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@Ashton_1nvests Added more today oops..✌🏼

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@DiligentPlane $SOFI 👇🏼

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@TheLongInvest I got on $AMD at $85, not $102.
Same idea. Hold. Don’t chase $1T.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@alc2022 $AMD $1T now.
I paid $84–$85 in Apr 2025.
I wouldn’t start here. I’m holding.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@Sam_Badawi TPU demand is why I added $GOOGL at $153-$165.
Same rule as $AMD - I paid the dip. I’m not chasing the tape.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@StockSavvyShay Agents in the marketplace is why I own $AMZN
Added $219 and $210.
Ads + AWS still the cash.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@Brownmoose That’s why entry matters.
I paid $85. I’m holding.
I’m not adding the send.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

$AMD is running.

I bought it multiple times at $84–$85 in Apr 2025.

I would not start that position at a $1T tape.

Hold what I have. Not chase.

Would you still buy $AMD here - Or only if you already paid $85?

I don’t chase stocks.

I find them early, value them, and show the receipts.

Follow to see what I’m buying before it becomes obvious.

[Early Alpha X @EarlyAlphaX_]

@TheLongInvest Interview Karp.
Doesn’t change my entry.
$12 holder, not a $176 buyer.

$PLTR Buys 👇🏼