@DavidBe31099196 In “1984” the only thing the state did well was control the population and create propaganda. Even waging war was really a sham. Razor blades were unavailable. Orwell was perhaps just a few years too early in his choice of year.
@admcollingwood Modern elites will lead from armchairs. In previous wars they at least risked their own lives. Some 264 MPs served in the forces in WW1 and 23 died. Asquith, Bonar Law and Rosebery lost sons. The elites of the past were in many ways far better than those of today.
@admcollingwood FT is for the “elite” so the perspective is unsurprising and underlines the inability to self reflect. We are at the stage of the late Soviet Union. But that could be dismantled top down (albeit unintentionally). The West’s collapse will be far messier.
SEPTEMBER 21, 2026:
SUMMARY: Forget the AfD, Le Pen, Farage, etc. They will all be repressed, if they don't first become Meloni or Tsipras. That “Waiting for Godot” nonsense has been droning on for 20 years. Everything is locked in. Nothing will change until it all collapses.
DETAILS:
Present European elite consensus (spoken or unspoken) is to reverse the obvious economic decline through one last remaining hope: “Rearmament.”
Of course, justifying the guns-not-butter track involves stoking a never-ending Russia psychosis and war expectation (a Schroedinger’s madness of “Russia is weak, the YooKrayne will tame Russia by striking refineries / Wildberries / whatever, but we will still have to fight Russia by 20XX”), with moves towards mass conscription and so on.
Military-industrial spending has indeed begun to level-out the German recession (albeit with only “statistical”, token growth.) France, not so much.
A wild card is the situation with motor fuels price and availability, gas storage for the winter, climate/electricity, and soon, food.
Another “big surprise” is Russia reacting to the attempted Crimea/Azov blockade and Wildberries Offensive by dismantling the YooKrayne’s economy, which will soon necessitate as much as a doubling of direct budgetary support (to up to $8 billion/month).....
.....and we will see in what nasty manner the European Union raises that money.
What’s NOT in question:
No true opposition/change party—that is, one outside of the comprehensive Overton Window—will be allowed to take charge anywhere, or even to exercise direct influence (e.g., as a coalition partner.)
Even in the UK, a Farage government (if he was not just there to stroke himself and nothing else, or even if he was) would be sabotaged and brought down like Trump 1.0.
In line with Frank Zappa, if the power structure needs to, it will finally remove all the props and scenery-art of “democracy.”
We already saw France house-arrest its #1 opposition/change leader, and Romania CANCEL its presidential election results and then run a re-do without the winner, after claiming some bizarre Russian Tiktok/bot plot that no one had heard of until AFTER the election.
Any yapper selling you on AfD, Le Pen, etc. hope and hype, please recall what they or their kind said about Meloni, and Beppe Grillo before her… and before that, you might be old enough to remember Berlusconi… and let's not even talk about Catalonia (if you feel that is relevant.)
Do you just want to be stroked, to be a mirror-image of the MSM zombies, cheering for nonsense.....
.....or do you want THE TRUTH?
The EU is locked in, like the old USSR.
In fact, it is even worse, because the late USSR got soft, while THIS crowd does not care how bad it gets, or how hard the screws must be turned. They will go all the way, if they have to, like the Assad family.
Nothing will change until it all collapses.
All as per the book that Fukuyama never wrote, “The End of Democracy and The Last YooKraynian.”
@philippilk You are right with respect to the UK, writing as an English person with Irish Catholic ancestry! Break up is the only way to end the urge for elites to pretend we are still an empire. In the long run, it will be beneficial for all of the kingdoms but painful in the short run.
@admcollingwood But they would only be ready by the late 2030s at the earliest. These multi decade programs are not a credible way to deter Russia today. Or possibly ever given the weapons will likely be outmoded by the time they are received.
@philippilk If we follow the Soviet example then the truly decisive moment will be if England develops an effective push for independence. Westminster has to resist any notion of an English state / institutions / career path for politicians if it is to hold the UK together!
@Denethor22nd@philippilk Trump just says it out loud and does not bother to pretend. The post Trump era may be back to politeness but the reality of vassalage will only change if British elites choose to wake up.
@Denethor22nd@philippilk I think he is right and I am English plus usually pro America - I lived there for two years. But the reality is that we are only a “friend” as a vassal. Peter Hitchens: “The Phoney Victory” is good on this with respect to the 1940s.
@philippilk@admcollingwood Spot on. Trump just says it out loud. Other administrations have typically been more subtle but the substance is similar. As with much of what Trump says and does in both foreign and domestic policy.
@ProfessorPape I agree. What was the 1918 example though? Germany lost WW1 on the battlefield, I have always believed. The Blockade played a role but it was the un-stoppable Allied offensive including fresh American troops and Ludendorff’s resulting panic that led to the Armistice?
@whaditizzz@ProfessorPape It was also dismantled top down unintentionally by Gorbachev when he started to remove elite incentives to support the system.
@meersalz1976@policytensor My father was bombed in 1941 in East Acton, London. A family two doors down were all killed. He used to make exactly the comment in your tweet. In 1941-2 Britain had no other way of fighting offensively. Still does not make civilian bombing effective or moral, of course!
Of course, everyone called this 100% in hindsight, it was totally obvious, yada yada, everyone is a genius.
Which blogger named Dreizin called it over 3 months in advance?
@MsMelChen I also lived in the U.S. for a time in the 90s and fully understood why air conditioning is essential there. But, it is typically turned up so high that I contracted summer colds.
@MsMelChen I have also lived in South Africa. Houses are typically not well insulated and can feel quite cold in winter at night. But that lasts for a few weeks at most and does not warrant the investment in heating that we make in the colder regions. Reasons help. Stone throwing does not.
I wrote in DEC 2024 - JAN 2025 that there is no real new tech story to bail out the economy, then I said throughout 2025 (incl. in the suppressed tweets below) that chatbots make NO FINANCIAL SENSE & are A DEAD END. Today, you can hear my words on CNBC!
https://t.co/qN08F7uNpT