What just happened?
The S&P 500 just erased nearly -$2 TRILLION of market cap just hours after 3rd strongest US jobs report in 18 months.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is officially down over -50% from its record high in October 2025.
What's happening? Let us explain.
(a thread)
🚨 Private credit is too big to exit. It will (sadly) survive this mess. Retail investors who invested in PC, will not.
Private credit spent the better part of the past 5 years selling “democratization” to retail investors.
We said PC is democratizing the losses. Sadly, we are right.
Who enabled this mess?🧵
Ed Yardeni: "We wouldn’t be surprised if any selloff in the S&P 500 on Monday morning turns into a rally, driven by expectations of lower oil prices once the latest Middle East war ends. The price of gold might also round-trip on Monday. Bond yields might fall due to both safe-haven demand and post-war prospects for lower oil prices."
My top 10 stock picks for 2026: 🧵
1. $AMZN
5-year Revenue CAGR: 13%
Forward P/E: 30
ROIC: 14%
AWS' growth has trailed competitors so far, which was the biggest reason for the stock's underperformance for the last two years.
AWS growth is expected to reach 25% next year, and e-commerce and digital advertising are also expected to accelerate as the Fed will keep cutting rates.
The stock is trading near its lowest multiples despite the decades of runway for robust growth.
Easily the top pick for 2026.
@DividendTalks The company is very shareholder Unfriendly. No dividend. A small dividend will help the stock tremendously like it did for Meta. No buy backs. Have they ever bought 1 share of stock back? Billions in the BS and never a friendly shareholder move. Like the company dislike the CEO
$AMZN might be the most misunderstood “boring” stock heading into 2026.
People still talk about Amazon like it’s an e-commerce company.
This chart shows it’s something else entirely - a privately-run economy hiding inside one ticker.
• AWS - the profit engine powering the internet
• Prime, Marketplace, Logistics - the toll road every online seller drives on
• Advertising - a $75B machine nobody values correctly
• Devices + Alexa + Ring + Zoox - optionality most companies would spin off
• Media (Prime Video, Twitch, MGM) - attention at scale
• Healthcare, pharmacy, groceries - slow, quiet land grabs
While everyone chased AI hype, $AMZN spent years building infrastructure.
Now AWS is re-accelerating, margins are expanding, and every flywheel is turning at once.
Amazon isn’t a stock you trade.
It’s a system you own - and 2026 might be when the market finally prices it that way.
Barron’s just dropped its Top 10 stocks for 2026:
No AI lottery tickets. No momentum darlings. Just companies the market got bored with… and may have mispriced.
$AMZN still building an empire while the stock went nowhere.
$DIS written off, but quietly rebuilding cash flow.
$V a global tollbooth trading like growth is over.
$BMY and $CMCSA priced for decline, not survival.
$XOM compounding like clockwork at a value multiple.
$FRFHF doing Berkshire-style math in silence.
$FLUT the best operator in sports betting, sold on fear.
$SLG and $MSGS owning irreplaceable real-world assets.
This isn’t a bull-market list.
It’s a “when the crowd’s wrong” list.
And those are the ones that usually matter most.
$NVO could do 50%+ just from re-rating back to the median.
When we get some sector rotation (if it happens at all), I believe Novo will be a beneficiary.
Hopefully this post should show you how undervalued $AMZN is:
1. AWS: The entire Cloud market will hit ~$2.3T in 2032 meaning the market is growing at ~20% YoY. Let's be conservative and assume $AMZN grows AWS at 15% YoY.
That should get them to ~$250B in revenue by 2032. At a 45% operating margin you have $113B in operating income which equates to a $1.7T valuation at a conservative 15x multiple.
2. Digital Ads: $AMZN Ads currently runs at a $60B run rate, just behind $META and $GOOG. This means they're growing at ~17% YoY.
$TTD for example trades at 8x sales. If we give $AMZN digital ads business a 8x sales multiple you have a $480B business there (at minimum in my opinion).
Just based on that above, I think we have ~$2T valuation for AWS and Cloud by 2030.
This has NOT taken into account:
1. Current e-commerce business
2. Margin expansion opportunities via robotics
3. Subscription business
4. Physical stores
5. Zoox
6. Project Kuiper
7. Other long-term bets
It's hard to argue that $AMZN isn't an extremely safe bet today.
$PYPL Hey Ma! Heisenberg is charting PainPal again!
Ok no seriously, this rounding bottom base is sooooo long on the tooth that when it eventually inevitably breaks out ($90+ of the lid) it's gonna go bananas.
We just gotta be PainTient, I mean patient, with this one.
Buying this name here reminds me of buying $BABA when it was sub $100. So much negative priced in didn't take much for the +100% moonshot.
🚨Novo Nordisk $NVO is priced for failure but built for success. Here is my DCF analysis proving how undervalued it is.🧵
Margin of safety: >40%
You will not find better asymmetric opportunity in the market right now and here's why 👇
Welcome to DCFriday #001, a thread.🧵
The market is just wrong about $NVO..
It’s still ahead of $LLY in the weight-loss market.
Novo’s oral GLP-1 will be launched later this year while Lilly’s oral weight-loss pill is expected in early 2026.
Novo’s oral drug led to 13.6% weight-loss after 72 weeks while Lilly’s pill showed 12.4% weight drop.
It’s not that different for weight-loss injections too.
Novo has Amycretin and Lilly has Retatritude as the upcoming flagship drugs.
While they both delivered 24% weight-loss in trials, Retatritude did that in 48 weeks while it only took 36 weeks for Amycretin.
In sum, $NVO is well positioned to keep its leadership position in the market.
Given that this market is expected to reach $150 billion in the next 10 years, Novo’s current valuation at 14x earnings makes no sense.
Long $NVO.
$NVO - I don't think a company with:
- 84% gross margins
- 35.6% net profit margins
- 29% ROIC
- 8% CAGR EPS growth
- 3%+ div yield
Should be trading at a forward PE of just 16.
What do you think?
90% of traders just chase random trades.
The 10% execute orders already planned the night before.
Don’t chase.
Automate discipline.
That’s how I made grew my account from 4 figures to 8 figures.
Start by making your entries emotionless.