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Potential consolation or treason?😅
This was posted Friday afternoon in the private Discord. Our bots only have an allegiance to value and they're very good at it!
#MEXENG#Mexico#England#WorldCup
Harry Kane to score in 90 minutes, extra time or penalties in the Mexico v England game was a fun bet to price up. Here is our thinking:
Our odds for Kane AGS: 2.70 (37.04%).
Draw odds of 3.325 imply a 30.08% chance of extra time.
Using a simple poisson-style time adjustment, and factoring in the chance the game doesn't even reach extra time, the extra 30 mins adds 2.71% to the probability he scores. This isn't adjusting for tiredness.
We derived a 17.05% chance of the game reaching penalties. Assuming Kane takes one and using his historic pen record of 108/122, that adds another 8.15%.
Finally, we made an assumption that Kane plays through to penalties if it's a draw at the 75 minute mark (best guess).
Final adjusted price: 45.90%, or 2.18.
Boylesports boost: 2.50.
Value = 14.68% ROI
37 bets yesterday, 24 winners, 40+ points of profit!
Don't believe us? We track everything:
https://t.co/iOJRrcLRFh
That's also over 65 points of profit since Saturday 💥
Results since 11th June when we offered a 1 week free trial with our value betting service:
🎫Bets: 219
🤑Profit: +30.5 points
📈ROI: 14% on flat stakes
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Scotland absolutely wiped the floor with Norway there 8-0 with a tidy 110 checkout to ensure the below posted bet romped in 💪
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Words of Truth gets there in the Sandown 14:42! Amazing value boosts posted in the private Discord:
🐴Words of Truth to win @ 4 (3.4 BSP)
🐴Words of Truth or Military Code to win @ 2.5 (1.93 based on BSP)
That's a massive 23.55% expected ROI based at those odds!
World Cup 2026 FREE trial offer results so far:
⚽️27 bets
⚽️14 wins
⚽️+9 points
22 value bets already posted today for the Switzerland, Brazil & Scotland games in the private Discord!
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A big win last night in the final England friendly before their World Cup 2026 campaign!
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Get 100% FREE access to daily value bets for the first week of the World Cup 2026:
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Pre-registration required and only 50 spots available to preserve the edge - so act now!
We have been running at over 14% ROI over the past year. Don't miss out!
@bettingvillage Great shout. Also, Mexico and Uruguay have had decent runs in every sim we've played of our World Cup betting simulator game!
https://t.co/WSo1poJPbk
@eurofootcom Mexico or Uruguay - they are consistently having decent runs in our World Cup 2026 Simulator Game, based on real odds and data:
https://t.co/WSo1poJPbk
@AaronWar_ That's very cool! We went more degen and used current odds/data to build a full simulator you can pretend bet on. For some reason Uruguay and Mexico keep consistently having decent runs:
https://t.co/WSo1poJPbk
@CharIieBennett We made a simulator game based on real odds and stats and for some reason Uruguay and Senegal keep running deep:
https://t.co/WSo1poJPbk