Thomas Edsall

NYT Political Columnist. Former Washington Post and Huffington Post political reporter. Professor Columbia J-School, Poker player.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Savings rate record low; Credit card debt record high

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

What is it analysts and the FED do not see?

Unemployment Rate moves up.

FED tries to ensure "Soft Landing" by cutting Fed Fund Rate.

Around the first Rate Cut, SP500 (and equities) top and the Bear Market begins.

RECESSION IS COMING! And due to FED being very, very late the Deflationary impulse will be extra strong.

BUT...... first #BlowOffTop 🚀

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

S&P500

Update

🚨 CAUTION 🚨

Witness the stark contrast: 2008 and 2024, side by side, unfiltered.
Brace yourselves.

The market's next temper tantrum shall be upon us shortly.

2008 was just the appetizer. The main course is coming in 2025.

P.S Dessert yet to be decided.

Don't be alarmed it gets much worse.

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

This is the WORST policy mistake since 1929

Something is bound to break

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

This is exactly how the crash of 2008 Financial Crisis happened 👇

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

This is the most concentrated market in the past 40+ years

Just the top 5 companies now make up 28% of the S&P 500

Let that sink in

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[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

This is worsened by more than $1 trillion in credit card debt

And credit card interest rates hitting 21.51%

At this rate, something is bound to break

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

High rates + rising costs are putting a lot of pressure on the consumer

The market uptrend remains intact for now

But, we’ll be booking profits and rotating capital when the bullish structure breaks

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

Sharp rises in the unemployment rate have coincided with aggressive market declines

Once the labor market cracks, it’s game over

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

For now, the job market is holding up and stocks still look bullish

Therefore, we’re still holding our long positions

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[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

ALERT: Buying conditions in the US housing market has collapsed

Now reaching levels only seen 2 times since 1960:

- 1974
- 1981

Both of them ended in a recession

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

The housing market is a key leading indicator of the business cycle

Which tends to react very quickly to interest rate changes

So, high rates have been a major headwind for this market

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[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

Another day, another record:

Home price relative to income has hit the highest level. EVER.

This is exactly what unaffordable housing looks like

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

ALERT: Savings are now contracting

This is getting worse by the day for US consumers

A thread 🧵

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

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9/ Thanks for reading!

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