What are you buying this dip?
If you don't have an answer to this question yet, go build a watch list ASAP, but if you do, comment down below.
Mine are:
$BABA, $DEFT, $SBET
Will add more to the list along the way.
Bought more Horizon Robotics 09660 today.
Do not fear the dip, embrace it.
If there is one thing that I have learnt in my investing journey, is that Fortune favors the bold.
Audentes fortuna iuvat.
Alibaba $BABA $9988
The world’s largest e-commerce platform with over $1T in annual GMV. Also the #1 cloud provider in China by market share.
Yet it trades at just 14x forward P/E (ex-cash).
When sentiment shifts, re-pricing can be fast.
Current price: $120
Next target: $160.
3350.T / $MTPLF
This is potentially bigger than $GME 2021 or Volkswagen squeeze in 2009 imo here’s why:
This has several more layers to add gasoline to the fire for the squeeze itself.
1. bitcoin just pierced all-time highs and if it does what we think it’s going to do it could test 200k to 300k and maybe wick higher if it’s a full-blown 2013/2017 like mania.
2. Market cap is now around $9 billion. Dollar Tree is $19 billion.
No comment 😭
3. Bonds are imploding in Japan. There is no bitcoin ETF so Metaplanet is acting like the only life raft available for the people of Japan. if they have feat in retirement accounts or brokerage MetaPlanet is the go to in my opinion to get the bitcoin exposure versus having to go through the arduous process of the paperwork needed to register on an exchange, based on stories Simon has shared.
I will say getting spot bitcoin is very important for those people as well. I do not want to discount that.
Trillions of yen is being debased and destroyed, and it needs a place of protection and $MTPLF can at least provide proxy exposure.
4. I know it’s only one metric, but mNAV months to cover is still in a fair value range in my opinion. Not nearly as hyper undervalued as it was last week, but still in a decent range.
In a mania could see 15 to 20 MNAV and potentially an ever wider mNAV months to cover if it’s a wild wick to the upside.
5. Shorts are basically trapped on the TSE. Shares are hard to locate in the market basically limits up at the open and looks like it could limit up rest of week.
If I was trapped short over there, I would have an account that had access to the OTCQX market to get myself neutral and have a stack of MTPLF to offset the potential losses on my short position on the TSE.
That’s one of the reasons in my opinion you see the price run on $MTPLF but I’m only speculating on that.
6. Once the next trench of moving stock warrants get initiated, they are going to capture the spread and stack an insane amount of bitcoin at a higher acceleration than they ever have if I had to guess. It’s their version of the ATM.
This ramps up in velocity of mNAV faster than before and it becomes reflexive.
In the very short term, nobody has a clue where this thing is going to go and is going to be really violent. Vol was already 150 basically 3x Bitcoin’s and 2x MSTR’s.
Play a lone hand.
Not a macro expert. Regularly larp as a macro enjoyooooor
Personal view is we experienced/are experiencing accelerated bear market (that has bottomed), and the biggest reason alts got obliterated while BTC didn’t is because of infinite institutional bid. Second reason is more ideologically important but less fiscally important - extreme levels of vapor finally exposed…leading to everyone becoming at least a little bit of a BTC maxi
Where we’re headed:
Negative news headlines all but totally lost market moving ability - tariff tomfoolery heavily accelerated the bear effects. Only news that will really move the needle going forward are extreme bearish things (war/etc), while legitimate trade deals and/or rate cuts are prepped for legs up
Wouldn’t shock me to see BTC.d at 70%, but don’t think it goes meaningfully higher. Once rate cuts start and the money printer eventually comes back on there will be excess liquidity flowing to legitimate alts again with pockets of outperformance in narrative driven sectors as well as revenue generating protocols. Lots of money will continue flowing into BTC.
The only way “out” of the current situation is eventually printing more money and continuing to kick the can. Currency debasement was a decision made a long time ago. It cannot be walked back. Cryptocurrency exists for this reason and will thrive in the long run
Important development yesterday!
I think #BTC Dominance Index topped!
This could lead to an amazing #Altseason2025
Strong decline in the Dominance Index in the coming many weeks.
Alts should SOAR - and to new ATHs for many of them.
Watch my video on the BTC Dominance Index here - incl. POTENTIAL TIMELINE FOR THE ALTSEASON:
https://t.co/tt3nJBUYFX
Good afternoon everyone!
A thread🧵
In October 2022, everybody was Bearish. Falling over themselves in calling for Recession and major Bear Market.
I was on the other side of that crowd. And it was honestly a fairly easy call looking at the Business Cycles. (Yes - it was!)
Leading Indicators (LEI) had NOT crossed over Equilibrium - and thereby sending Recession Signal. And Coincident Indicators (COI) were well above Equilibrium.
NOT the environment for a Recession and Major Bear Market.
We all know how that went!
Today, we have that same situation. Everybody is all "Beared-Up".
All the experts have their views on why the Economy "already is in Recession" - and the US market decline since December 2024 is first leg in a major Bear Market.
This time it is not an as easy call as back in October 2022 - but it is still fairly easy to point out why this is most likely NOT the situation.
My take: The Economy is NOT in Recession. And we are NOT in the first part of a major Bear Market. In fact, Equities and Crypto will soar higher in the final leg.
Why....?
Because the "Recession and Bear Market Thesis" does not "add up"! And people are not looking!