INSTEAD OF WATCHING NETFLIX TONIGHT.
Spend 1 hour with this.
A Bloomberg Terminal lecture that teaches you more about how markets actually work than a 2 month internship at Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan.
The people who watch this tonight will understand something most traders spend years figuring out.
Completely free.
Bookmark this before you scroll past it.
BTC ETF net inflows peaking ~$1B has been an accurate LTF top signal for the past year - 6/7 times this happened, price ended up trailing down for next 3-5 days.
Green bar - BTC net inflows
Orange line - BTC price
Raw data from @SoSoValueCrypto
UPDATE 🚨
The whole story on Hyperliquid & $JELLY 👇
background context
> hyperliquid (HL): decentralized perp exchange
> HLP: internal liquidity vault of hyperliquid
> jelly token: small market cap (~$10-20M initially)
what happened
> trader wallet (0xde95) opened huge ~$8M short on jelly
> trader purposely removed margin, forcing hlp to inherit and auto-liquidate the massive position
> simultaneously pumped jelly price on-chain, squeezing shorts hard
> jelly pumped from ~$10M to over $50M market cap in under an hour
> hlp initially suffered huge unrealized loss (~$12M)
second exploitation
> amid chaos, new wallet (0x20e8) opened big long, quickly profiting ~$8.2M on hyperliquid
> exchanges like binance and okx noticed volatility and quickly listed jelly perps, amplifying activity
hyperliquid's response
> validators rapidly decided to delist jelly perps
> adjusted oracle price significantly down to $0.0095 per jelly, closing all open positions
> publicly communicated quick actions transparently
> normal users (excluding flagged wallets) automatically compensated, no action needed
financial outcomes
> hl turned potential multimillion-dollar loss into ~$703K realized profit after adjustment
> hlp depositors fully protected and even profited (~$687K daily profit), despite initial scare
market perception
> positive: praised for swift, decisive actions protecting depositors
> criticism: controversy around forced oracle adjustments and decentralized governance transparency
why this matters
highlights big vulnerabilities in decentralized perp exchanges (oracle pricing, liquidity vaults, forced liquidation)
emphasizes need for fast, transparent governance and intervention mechanisms
shows controversial tradeoffs protocols might need to make to protect depositors during exploits
important lessons here for anyone participating or building in defi and perpetual markets
BITCOIN GOLDEN CROSS IS HERE
Every time this beast awakens, the market bends to its will:
🚀 2016: +139% (warm-up round)
🚀 2017: +2200% (face-melting rally)
🚀 2020: +1190% (escape velocity)
Last time, people laughed. Then they cried. Then they FOMO’d.
WHY DONALD TRUMP WANTS THE MARKET TO CRASH
….in the short term ⬇️
This chart below sums up the reasoning behind what the current adminstration is doing and why it is having adverse effects on the market.
Kris @KrisPatel99 did a great job today explaining this more in depth on the market open & I think the thesis checks out:
1. We have $7T of debt we need to pay in the next 6 months…if we don’t pay it, we’ll have to refinance.
2. The Trump admin does NOT want to refinance at a 4%+ rate…the 10yr at one point this year was 4.8%.
3. How do you get the 10yr to come down? Markets need to show weakness in growth, DOGE has to be perceived as actually working, interest rates need to come down.
The way to do that is to create massive uncertainties — aka tariffs — which can slow down growth in the short term, get the bond market to start BUYING bonds ASAP because of how scared they are of touching stocks (causing yields to fall which is what we need to refinance the debt) and then that gives the Fed the authority to lower rates which continues to bring yields down.
So, although conventional wisdom says tariffs are inflationary and the 10yr should be spiking on more tariffs — it’s actually going down because its bringing so much uncertainly to equity markets that people are selling stocks and buying bonds!
Which is exactly what the Trump administration wants to happen in the short term in order to bring refinancing costs down.
Short term pain for long term gain?
🇺🇸🇺🇦🚨‼️ JD Vance confronted Zelensky on the forceful mobilization, that is what he means!
People are mercilessly grabbed and forced I to the military.
1/
What I said over 2 years ago was that Ukraine should seek peace or suffer severe loss of life for no gains.
The latter was Zelensky’s choice.
Now, he wants to do that again.
This is cruel and inhumane.
A Crazy Idea for Token Issuance
What if someone issues a token with the following tokenomics?
Initially, 10% of the tokens are unlocked and sold on the market. The proceeds go to the project team to build out the product/platform, marketing, salaries, etc.
Each future unlock must meet ALL of the following conditions:
1. Six months after the previous unlock.
2. ONLY IF the token price has sustained above 2x of the previous unlock price for more than 30 days immediately before the unlock.
3. Up to 5% of tokens maximum each time.
For example, if the TGE was in Jan with a price of $1, by June, if the token price is still less than $2, no more tokens can be unlocked. Let’s say the token's price was above $2 from July 4 to Aug 3, then on Aug 3, 5% more tokens can be unlocked into circulation. Say the price is $3 on Aug 3. The next earliest unlock possible is March 3 next year, and only if the price is above $6 for longer than 30 days.
The project teams have the discretion to delay or reduce the size of each unlock. If they don’t want to sell more, they don’t have to. But the maximum they can sell (unlock) each time is 5%, and then they have to wait for at least another 6 months AND the price to double again.
The project team does NOT have the discretion to shorten or increase the size of the next unlock. The tokens shall be locked by a smart contract where a third party controls the keys.
This avoids new tokens flooding the market when prices are low. It also gives the project team incentives to build for the long term.
I have no plans to issue a new token. Just an idea for discussion.
If we see a V-shaped recovery after this dip (next week or so), then that confirms that we are still in a bull market. Bull markets are full of -20% -30% dips, followed by sharp V-shaped recoveries.
Another wallet of "7 Siblings" bought 5,382 $ETH($14.5M).
7 Siblings bought a total of 50,429 $ETH($126M) today.
The last time 7 Siblings bought a large amount of $ETH at the bottom was on Aug 6, 2024, when the market crashed.
https://t.co/BSIe7tIJUy