Electability Index

Probabilities that a candidate wins the general election, if they win the primary

[Electability Index @ElectabilityIdx]

On Polymarket, Newsom is 20% to win the primary, and 13% to win the presidency. Thus, implied odds of 65%.

We do various adjustments on top of that to account for volume and sample size, but it's hard to get away from those 2 numbers.

The site currently shows you how you can short Gavin's odds! More to come.

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

New - Electability Index - Democratic Primary

Odds of winning general election, if they win primary:

🔵 Jon Ossoff: 75%
🔵 Gavin Newsom: 65%
🔵 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 59%
🔵 Pete Buttigieg: 54%
🔵 Josh Shapiro: 53%
🔵 Kamala Harris: 47%

https://t.co/MV3he9jewr

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

New - Electability Index - Michigan

Odds of winning general election, if they win primary:

🔵 El-Sayed: 77%
🔵 Stevens: 60%

Source: @ElectabilityIdx

[TMZ @TMZ]

🗣️ Rep. Haley Stevens defends her "stick it to 'em" ad as "authentically Michigan."

🎥: @jacob_wass

[Electability Index @ElectabilityIdx]

@db491865 @PpollingNumbers Some more info here:

https://t.co/aKfm2zc93Q

[Electability Index @ElectabilityIdx]

New - Electability Index - Michigan

Odds of winning general election, if they win primary:

🔵 El-Sayed: 77%
🔵 Stevens: 60%

Source: https://t.co/VG2QDuqf6S

[Electability Index @ElectabilityIdx]

@jonkentcomrade El-Sayed is definitely more electable, at least according to markets

[umichvoter @umichvoter]

Michigan Data for Progress poll (sponsored by Pro-Abdul PAC)

🟢 Abdul El-Sayed 54%
🟣 Haley Stevens 41%

[Micah Erfan @micah_erfan]

Republicans are terrified of an Ossoff 2028 run.

[Electability Index @ElectabilityIdx]

@micah_erfan Markets agree

[GL @gldivittorio]

Jon Ossoff seems like an obvious 2028 front runner based on the fact that moderates think he's moderate, progressives think he's progressive, and liberals think he's liberal

[Electability Index @ElectabilityIdx]

@electionsjoe 💯

Markets agree

[Electability Index @ElectabilityIdx]

@atrupar Our markets love Ossoff's chances in 2028, if nominated

[Electability Index @ElectabilityIdx]

@Acyn Moments like this are why our markets have Jon Ossoff as the most electable Dem candidate for 2028

[Electability Index @ElectabilityIdx]

John Ossoff: Who won the 2020 election?

Trump DNI pick: I’m not going to get into that with you.

Ossoff: Isn't it humiliating to be unable to answer this question, to have to indulge the president's delusions?