Election Forecast UK

Forecasts of the 2017 UK general election combining data from the British Election Study, publicly released polls, and historical election results.

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

@CantreBreiniol I think that error is large (relative to Plaid vote) because it's v hard to gauge Plaid strength from GB-wide polls.

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

Seat modelling improved the seat-by-seat estimates compared to uniform national swing on GB-wide and England-only basis (4/n)

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

That meant that the result for Labour was outside that 95% forecast interval (3/n)

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

Big errors on vote share for Labour and UKIP; errors on SNP vote share also consequential (2/n)

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

You can find a report at https://t.co/Y9WGoM5hyk detailing some of the errors in our forecast (1/n)

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

@surenderjawa See https://t.co/jZewposaOy

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

Don't like 95% forecast intervals? Some alternatives for the Conservatives:
90%: 326-404
80%: 338-392
60%: 350-381

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

@Tent101 See https://t.co/sK2LVMDNwH for an explanation why they're that wide

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

The history of these #GE2017 forecasts over time...

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

Probability of no party winning a majority of 326 seats or more: =~ 5%

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

FINAL #GE2017 forecast:
Cons 366 [95% forecast interval: 318-412]
Lab 207 [162-257]
LDems 7 [2-14]
SNP 46 [35-54]
https://t.co/UEYYBBA4kz

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

@HarryBarnes See website for most likely outcome: https://t.co/UEYYBBA4kz

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

@amjad_mahmoodPK I'm afraid I have no idea

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

@AGMacDougall For most likely outcome visit the website: https://t.co/UEYYBBA4kz

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

@flyinglawyer73 For most likely outcome visit the website: https://t.co/UEYYBBA4kz

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

@joe_oliver For most likely outcome visit the website: https://t.co/UEYYBBA4kz

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

@lawprashant See the last 5 posts on https://t.co/jUJjx82AKW

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

Final update tomorrow morning with all the final polls...

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

Probability of hung parliament: 3%

[Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK]

#GE2017 penultimate update:
Cons 323-413
Lab 159-245
LDems 2-13
SNP 42-56
For seat-by-seat details, visit https://t.co/UEYYBBA4kz