ElectionRecon

Welcome to the Oasis of Reality! 3 Politicos, Combat Vets & Election Geeks providing bias free analysis. Over 25+ years combined campaign experience.

[ElectionRecon @ElectionRecon]

We're giving ourselves a big ol' POB for the POTUS model this year. For a humble operation with just a few hundred subscribers & a few thousands follower across all socials... you know the Mick Foley of Forecasts... we feel like that time Mick beat The Rock on Raw. #Election2024

[ElectionRecon @ElectionRecon]

@tencor_7144 It most certainly is. Very close election.

[ElectionRecon @ElectionRecon]

@rpyers @JoshLWhitfield @tencor_7144 @lxeagle17

[Rob Pyers @rpyers]

🚨 #CA13 Update - Stanislaus County is in, adding 1,349 votes that break 52.85%/47.15% for Democrat Adam Gray, netting him 77 votes to increase his lead over incumbent Republican John Duarte to 182 votes.

[ElectionRecon @ElectionRecon]

@JoshLWhitfield @tencor_7144 @lxeagle17

[Joshua Whitfield @JoshLWhitfield]

Gray (D) will net 77 votes over Duarte (R) in the impending & imminent Stanislaus Drop.

#CA13

#Election2024

[Joshua Whitfield @JoshLWhitfield]

This might be a fatal wound for Duarte. Still not callable, but it’s certainly (and solidly) tilt Gray (D) over Duarte (R) now. #CA13

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New: Adam Gray (D) overtakes #CA13 Rep. John Duarte (R) by 105 votes w/ new Merced Co. ballot drop. Still way too close to call w/ a few thousand left, but a huge development for Dems.

[Political Election Projections @tencor_7144]

Exactly 3 weeks after election day, Adam Gray has taken the lead in #CA13 for the first time since election night, and may just hold on to it with extremely little ballots remaining to count.

[Rob Pyers @rpyers]

#CA45 Republican Michelle Steel's uninterrupted streak of losing the post-election day vote updates continues, with Orange County's update adding 612 votes that break 52%/48% for Democrat Derek Tran, netting him 24 votes and increasing his lead to 613 votes.

[CATargetBot0001 @CATargetBot0001]

#CD13 Update
50.05% - 102,653 - John Duarte (R)
49.95% - 102,446 - Adam Gray (D)

[Political Election Projections @tencor_7144]

John Duarte and Adam Gray are separated by 201 votes after today's updates in a race that won't be called until 2027 at this rate of counting

[Rob Pyers @rpyers]

After tonight's updates, California is likely down to ~228,000 unprocessed ballots. Counties w/the most remaining:

24,846 SLO(w)
21,906 Orange
19,700 LA
17,450 San Bernardino
16,050 Sacramento
14,063 Shasta
12,000 San Diego
10,767 Lake
9,500 Riverside
9,104 San Joaquin

[Joshua Whitfield @JoshLWhitfield]

Today was a general wash in my book. It remains tilt Duarte (R) by the most slimiest of margins in my book, and I mean S-L-I-M.

#CA13

[ElectionRecon @ElectionRecon]

OUR TAKE: We disagree. Tonight was a slight miss for Gray (D), (pending what we expect to be a negligible SJ county drop), just like last night was a slight miss for him, after a major win for Gray on Tuesday.

This one remains tilt Duarte (R) for us.

[Ethan C7 @ECaliberSeven]

Small drops in from Fresno & Merced - with Adam Gray narrowly hitting his benchmarks in both for CA-13.

Seems like we’re just gonna be stuck watching drops of a few hundred ballots each for a long, LONG time.

Thanks California.

[Rob Pyers @rpyers]

🚨 #CA13 UPDATES - Merced and Fresno Counties in...incumbent Republican John Duarte still up 220 votes...more tk

[CATargetBot0001 @CATargetBot0001]

#CD13 Update
50.05% - 102,105 - John Duarte (R)
49.95% - 101,885 - Adam Gray (D)

[CATargetBot0001 @CATargetBot0001]

#SD37 Update
50.71% - 229,426 - Steven 'Steve' Choi (R)
49.29% - 223,041 - Josh Newman (D)

[Political Election Projections @tencor_7144]

House Republicans will likely fall short of the 222 seats they got in 2022 but their winning margin was more "comfortable" this time around: Tipping point seat PA-07 (R +1.05) vs the 0.69% margin in IA-03, 2022's tipping point.

[Rob Pyers @rpyers]

#CA45 Update - Orange County's update adds 1,461 votes that break 52.8%/47.2% for Democrat Derek Tran, netting him another 83 votes and increasing his lead over incumbent Republican Michelle Steel to 397 votes.

[Rob Pyers @rpyers]

🚨 #CA13 Update - San Joaquin County, the bluest portion of the district, posts a small update of 45 votes that incumbent Republican John Duarte wins 53.3%/46.7%, sending his lead rocketing by an additional 3 votes from 348 votes to 351 votes.