Laura Rosner-Warburton

founding partner @ MacroPolicy Perspectives, macroeconomist, inflation forecaster, Fed watcher

[Claudia Sahm @Claudia_Sahm]

Inflation and employment—the dual mandate—during Powell's tenure as Fed Chair underscore how wrenching the pandemic was. Helping to regain stability afterward is a real accomplishment, even if not complete.

[Ben Casselman @bencasselman]

Really good piece from @BLS_gov exploring what shelter inflation would have looked like under various alternative approaches to handling the missing data from the shutdown.
https://t.co/cxjuiOmNNe

[Eric Rosengren @EricSRosengren]

With Kevin Warsh approved as Fed Governor, Governor Steve Miron is no longer on the Fed Board. He dissented for easing every meeting while core pce and total pce inflation were rising and the unemployment rate was low. History will not be kind to his dissents.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

"Thank you very much everyone," Powell said, ending his news conference. Off-mic as he left the lectern, "I won't see you next time."

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

The Senate Banking Committee has set a committee vote for Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination on Wednesday https://t.co/l3pMHESk0G

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Both GOP leaders of the banking committees, which oversee the Fed, have issued statements welcoming Pirro's decision. But so far, we have heard nothing from Tillis.

Meanwhile, the White House says the case "is not necessarily dropped."

[Omair Sharif @fcastofthemonth]

The skew issue was pointed out by the Cleveland Fed back in early 2022 as a reason the trimmed mean was understating inflation back then. Someone wanting the top job who is trashing current measures & methods probably should have known this before latching on to the trimmed mean.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Trimmed mean did *not* give a good read on the 2021 inflation.

Pandemic-era shocks flipped the skew positive, and the trimmed mean lagged badly behind core and headline inflation. The authors see possible echoes of that right now.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Dallas Fed economists last week examined exactly this divergence.

They suggest the lower trimmed mean reading may not be as reassuring as it looks.

The culprit: Tariffs and what they're doing to the shape of the distribution of price changes https://t.co/bm01SIaXtL

[Andrew Ackerman @amacker]

Pirro has repeatedly vowed to appeal a judge's ruling quashing a pair of grand jury subpoenas but she has yet to do so.

The deadline to appeal is May 3.

[CBS News @CBSNews]

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is vowing that through the end of his term, he’ll continue refusing to vote on any Fed nominees until the DOJ’s probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell is dropped.

“I have a little over 260 days left in the U.S. Senate. And if that investigation is still going on, in the 260th day, then, I’m pretty certain Kevin Warsh has not been confirmed,” Tillis tells CBS News’ “The Takeout.”

[Eric Rosengren @EricSRosengren]

The Fed Chair hearing did not help the perception of a tainted chair selection process. The unwillingness to disagree with the administration on any policies or who won the 2020 election did not project independence. There will be work to counter the sock puppet analogy image.

[Gita Gopinath @GitaGopinath]

It strikes me that markets are pricing in more hawkish central bank reaction functions as compared to where central bankers are. I suspect most central bankers are in wait and see mode and will want to see through some of the energy price increase. Unlike 2021, demand is not surging which makes seeing through a defensible strategy. They will likely be more cautious about rate cuts relative to pre-Iran conflict but markets seem to be pricing in much tighter monetary policy.

[Laura Rosner-Warburton @ElizRosner]

@drooney91 @bencasselman @MarcGoldwein i believe it would have rounded up to a 0.5% because the CPI legal services index is also the source data for the professional association dues index, which has a much smaller weight.

[Federal Reserve @federalreserve]

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: https://t.co/5dfrkByGyX

[Gregory Daco @GregDaco]

🎙️ New Episode Alert! Join me on the latest ECON-versations with @nabe_econ podcast!

@ElizRosner & I break down the latest #CPI report:

▶️What does it mean for the economy?
▶️How are markets reacting?
▶️What’s next for the Fed?

🎧 Stream it here:
👉 https://t.co/HIM21xiM0W

[Gregory Daco @GregDaco]

🎙️ Excited to launch @nabe_econ's new monthly inflation series "ECON-versations with NABE" podcast!
Join me & @ElizRosner as we discuss the latest #CPI report, post-elections risks & the #inflation and #Fed outlook for 2025. Listen now on Spotify or Apple
https://t.co/HIM21xiebo

[Laura Rosner-Warburton @ElizRosner]

@ah_shapiro Actually both CPI and PPI auto insurance indexes track gross premiums, it is only the weight in PCE that reflects a net premium.

[Laura Rosner-Warburton @ElizRosner]

Policy uncertainty creeping into the September ISM mfg report: “Business is flat. Waiting for interest rates to drop and the election outcome in November before we confirm our 2025 plans."

[Julia Coronado @jc_econ]

The Conference Board labor differential measuring the % of respondents saying jobs are plentiful minus the % saying jobs are hard to get is dropping uncomfortably quickly--the Fed probably needs to step up its game