EndGame Analysis

Markets, equities, analysis. Not financial advice

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

The massive downward revisions (-258k) are puzzling. Even as someone who long believes payrolls are overstated by massive amount, these downward revisions are anormay large outside of benchmark month or weather related events.

The downward revision are largest for state and local government, but also broad based.

So far we can rule out the following explanations:

1. Seasonal adjustment. The revisions are mostly NSA.

2. Collection rate of the survey. The collection rate not abnormally low and in fact higher than last year’s may to july.

3. Birth and death model revisions. But BD is for private payrolls not government. Plus the published page got BD shows estimates were unchanged.

Notably government payrolls are not connected from survey but from administrative data. Why the administrative data is missing by so much is a quandary.

[Sara Eisen @SaraEisen]

huge revisions to May and June hiring data, which were slashed by a combined 258,000 positions to 19,000 in May and 14,000 in June. The Fed pays close attention to these monthly jobs reports to shape and set policy, and yet the revisions make you wonder how reliable they are

[EndGame Analysis @EndGameAnalysis]

@JamesSurowiecki Public education

[EndGame Analysis @EndGameAnalysis]

@LoganMohtashami

[Justin Amash @justinamash]

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”

Happy Independence Day!

[EndGame Analysis @EndGameAnalysis]

@DarioCpx Slippery slope fallacy

[EndGame Analysis @EndGameAnalysis]

@David_Tracey Permanently? No

[EndGame Analysis @EndGameAnalysis]

@MattWalshBlog My dude, it’s called pen and paper

[EndGame Analysis @EndGameAnalysis]

@Cernovich Do*, Genius

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

@biancoresearch 💯

[EndGame Analysis @EndGameAnalysis]

@oguzerkan It’s called rebalancing

[EndGame Analysis @EndGameAnalysis]

@litcapital Until now

[EndGame Analysis @EndGameAnalysis]

@LoganMohtashami If by home prices, you mean my portfolio, sure

[EndGame Analysis @EndGameAnalysis]

@stats_feed Zero

[EndGame Analysis @EndGameAnalysis]

@willchamberlain I regret to inform you that the small-government conservatives™️ are back at it again

[EndGame Analysis @EndGameAnalysis]

@Pinko69420 Apparently commies drink piss

[EndGame Analysis @EndGameAnalysis]

@StatisticUrban The real number (adjusted for inflation) is $200 trillion per taxpayer

[Justin Amash @justinamash]

So…Americans had to pay a 10% tax before the “deal,” and Americans have to pay a 10% tax after the “deal.” We have some of the most economically illiterate people in the world in charge of trade policy.

[Kathy Jones @KathyJones]

US non-farm productivity dropped in Q1 for the first time since 2022. I take the productivity numbers with a grain of salt. On a quarter-to-quarter basis there can be distortions. It's the long-term trend that matters.

[Kathy Jones @KathyJones]

Fed: No change in policy but "uncertainty" still high - about both inflation and the economy. We continue to see rate cuts this year but not until September or later.