When a cycle becomes common knowledge, the real question is no longer just:
"Where are we in the cycle?"
It's this:
"What happens if everyone is wrong at the same time?"
That is the Bitcoin Black Swan. π¦’
The market doesn't have to crash just because the calendar says it should.
Sometimes, the most painful outcome for consensus is an unexpected continuation.
The Final Thought
Perhaps Bitcoin will follow the familiar cycle again.
Perhaps the historical pattern will remain remarkably consistent.
But there's another possibility:
The greatest surprise comes precisely because everyone was waiting for the same ending.
Scenario #1: The Top Nobody Sells
What if Bitcoin keeps rallying beyond the point where everyone expects the cycle to end?
Investors sell too early.
Capital rotates back in.
Short sellers get squeezed.
The expected top keeps moving higher.
Some are leveraged.
Some are holding altcoins.
Some are waiting for one final rally before selling.
Others are waiting for the inevitable crash to buy back lower.
They all believe they have a plan.