Stock Operator From Hell

Not SEBI registered. No financial advice. Retweets are not endorsements.

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

Never follow any finfluencer with the word “guru” in their name. This guru has been posting the most banal shit from hindsight

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

Hey, I already asked a question about PEB in a different theme. And looks like we're both tracking the exactly same sectors.

In Cement, I'm more leaning towards South India small caps. It's been a long wait, but the cycle finally seems to be turning. Would love to know your general thoughts, specifically related to the South. I'm currently holding one micro-cap (significant allocation)

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

@EquityValueIn Hi, had a q: how is your allocation between Pennar and Interarch? Roughly equal? or otherwise? Very interested to know your reasoning.

(I'm almost fully allocated to Pennar, and bought more during the march crash)

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

I can attempt to answer some of the questions:

1. Depreciation will increase. Their original assets got acquired very differently on the books, due to a reverse merger. See https://t.co/ijyY4U7poT. I also received a similar response, and their presentation over the past few quarters covers this under FAQs
2. DIIs will never touch anything with even a whiff of controversy. Phil Fisher, Howard Marks, Buffet, etc are very clear on this. They are hampered by something called the "institutional imperative". Additionally, there is at least one report from Nuvama that I know of: https://t.co/6OmCI1UBGL
4. WC days at 140 looks actually pretty elevated. Not low. And not very far from Happy Forging which is the closest peer

[Ankush Gupta @gup_ankush]

@Vedansh_Ag I sent an email to the Balu Forge compliance team and received the following response

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

I haven't. Please share your insights if you have.

I'm purely relying on public info, so that leaves room for error.

That said, one thing I went down the rabbit-hole on was their NATO affiliation. They did get certified (see https://t.co/CQxfI30Hva)

And if you follow that thread, you end up here: https://t.co/dVYCt4AOOG

The certification due diligence is done by Indian DoD. And if you read the doc, it says 'items must be procured only from manufacturers who have demonstrated their capability. It requires a thorough scrutiny of “manufacturing and quality control facilities” and “financial status” before registration as an approved source'

So, at least it looks like India's DoD thinks that Balu meets the criteria.

That certification doc is worth reading, since it looks like the checks are quite stringent.

[not investment advice]

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

It has a lot of things going for it. BUT, I get way too many "salesmen" vibes from the management. For example, during one con-call, they talked about using AI and Blockchai for solar. Sure, maybe there is a use-case, but come on! In another instance, they talked about investing in space based solar. And they keep repeating "we're now a gigawatt era company". Maybe that's normal, but it tuned me off of them.

That said, I just wonder if their IR team is asking them to say these things, because at least on the surface, they seem to be executing well.

[not investment advice]

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

@countryfirst23 @Raashulmadan @FinQ_India @ishmohit1 My guess is that it will take 1 or 2 quarters more before the orders become a little more numerous. But it's just a guess based on order-flows for empty shells across multiple listed companies.

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

@MRabbani69 @StocksResearch Please share your insights

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

@BaluGorade That dude is an idiot. Some of the worst takes I have seen in the twitter fin-verse

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

@MRabbani69 @StocksResearch Market wants spoon-feeding reassurance of guidance. They are not willing to read the balance-sheet and compare the capabilities with the other listed forging/casting companies. That's how opportunities arise.

[no buy/sell advice, no recommendation]

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

@FinQ_India @countryfirst23 @Raashulmadan @ishmohit1 Forging capacity expansion will certainly help. But I'm more focused on their increasing precision engineering capabilities. And they are always ahead of the curve compared to all the other forging/casting companies in India.

[no buy/sell advice, not a recommendation]

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

The reason you can get the stock at the recent prices is because there is no guidance, and no con-calls. When everyone else is confused, that's when you make money.

In capabilities, they are second only to Bharat Forge (in the forging/casting companies). And the management has always been ahead of the curve.

[Not investment advice, no buy/sell recommendation]

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

@MRabbani69 @StocksResearch https://t.co/3jYf5C4brR

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

Somebody once did a really bad job of reading a balance sheet, and now everyone on twitter thinks that this company has a corp gov issue.

It’s probably one of the best companies in the forging and casting space around. And FWIW, all the claims are explained in their investor presentations

[Not investment advice, no recommendation]

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

Somebody once did a really bad job of reading a balance sheet, and now everyone on twitter thinks that this company has a corp gov issue.

It’s probably one of the best companies in the forging and casting space around. And FWIW, all the claims are explained in their investor presentations

[Not investment advice, no recommendation]

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

This may be one of the best signs for India. A politician appreciating a competing politician from another state. The competition was to get business investments.

[Lokesh Nara @naralokesh]

At the @IndianExpress Adda, I spoke about how politics can be unforgiving. We competed fiercely with the previous DMK government in Tamil Nadu for investments - won some, lost some.

But I never heard an investor complain of being asked for money by the government. Credit where it's due: the DMK government ran a clean and professional investment process and that deserves appreciation.

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

@MadAboutStocks_ You mentioned it's 35% of your portfolio IIRC. What is the percentage in terms of your liquid net-worth (e.g. not counting your home, and household gold)?

Just trying to gauge your conviction 😀

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

"Capital Returns", edited by Edward Chancellor.

A great book, with case-studies, on how capital cycles work. I learned something new beyond what I've learned from people like Howard Marks.

I'm not saying it's the "best". But you've probably read all the famous ones already. If I were to recommend one book, it would be Phil Fisher's "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits"

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

@safalniveshak "Most people think #BhagavadGita is about a battle between armies"

It's called a straw-man. Most people at least in India don't think of it that way.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

An old school European financier told me long time ago:
"Those who feel they succeeded in finance write novels or talk mostly about art, culture, politics, or their hobbies; those who failed, no matter how rich, are still talking (or writing) only about finance & markets.

[Stock Operator From Hell @equity0FH]

@nbalajiv Apples are not valued with the same framework as Oranges.