Keshav Agarwal

Investment Analyst - Buy Side | Passionate about investing and dissecting businesses.

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

Why India’s Smog Isn’t “Different” – It’s Just Being Watched 🧵

1/ People see India’s $3k GDP/capita + bad air and scream “This development model is broken!”

Europe and China at the same stage had pitch-black skies. No social media meant no viral outrage. Same pain, less noise.

2/ Europe’s Industrial Revolution: Manchester and Birmingham choked in coal smog that blocked the sun for days. The Thames was an open sewer. London’s 1952 “pea souper” fog killed 12,000. No Twitter, so people called it “just progress.”

3/ China in the 2000s ($3k–$5k/capita): Beijing’s AQI hit 500–1000+ routinely—deadly levels. Factories and coal created “cancer villages.” By 2013, the government admitted pollution caused 1.6 million premature deaths yearly. Weibo existed, but tight control muted global freakouts.

4/ India today (~$2.8k/capita): Delhi’s AQI often spikes to 300–500—very poor to severe. It’s bad, no question. But it’s less deadly per capita than China’s peak, with lower coal and steel intensity than China in 2005. Still sucks, but not a uniquely “broken” path.

5/ The real difference? No Instagram Reels in 1850 Manchester. No uncensored TikTok in 2005 Shenzhen. India’s pollution is live-streamed globally, so it feels like an “exceptional crisis.” Truth: it’s standard messy industrialisation.

6/ Growth fixes it eventually. China cut AQI 40%+ after its 2013 War on Pollution. Europe cleaned up post-1950s with Clean Air Acts and tech. India will follow: urbanisation leads to wealth, enforcement, and cleaner skies. Same arc.

7/ Don’t judge India by 2025 AQI tweets. Judge by the full cycle. A $4 trillion economy becoming $10 trillion means cleaner air ahead—plus the same complaints when the next $3k/capita country rises.

Progress is ugly. Social media just makes it louder.

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

India: Corporate Capex exceeded the INR 11 Trn mark.

Following the key highlights:

1. Exceeded Central Govt.'s capex of INR 10.5 Trn
2. Corporate capex is broad based i.e. more corporate contributing to this amount
3. Corporate Capex is moving away from maintenance capex visible through the increase in capex/dep. ratio

Rising capex will lead to re-leveraging of corporates as internal CFO will not be sufficient to fund this growth.

Source: ICICI Securities

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

🇪🇺 EU: Slapped 25% counter-tariffs on U.S. goods—targeting agriculture, diamonds, dental floss, bikes, cosmetics, and steel.
🇹🇭 Thailand: Will increase U.S. imports, lower tariffs, and improve trade balance to ease tensions.
#TrumpTariffs #stockmarketnews

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

Round -up of all actions taken by countries in retaliation of trump tariffs
🇨🇳 China: Retaliated with 34% tariffs on U.S. imports. In response, the U.S. imposed an additional 50% tariff, bringing the total tariffs on Chinese imports in the U.S. to 104%.
#TrumpTariffs #stockmarketnews

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

🇰🇷 South Korea: Announced liquidity support for exporting firms and their contractors affected by the tariffs. The government is preparing a 100 trillion won market stabilization program. (~$6.8B USD).

#TrumpTariffs #stockmarketnews

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

🇮🇩 Indonesia: The central bank announced aggressive intervention in the foreign exchange market—selling U.S. dollars to support the Indonesian Rupiah.
#TrumpTariffs #stockmarketnews

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

🇧🇩 Bangladesh: Requested a three-month postponement of U.S. tariffs, pledging to increase imports of American goods such as LNG and agricultural products.
#TrumpTariffs #stockmarketnews

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

🇻🇳 Vietnam: Responded to 46% U.S. tariffs by offering 0% tariffs on all U.S. imports into Vietnam, aiming to strengthen trade ties.

#TrumpTariffs #stockmarketnews

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

🇮🇳 India: Imposed 26% tariffs on U.S. imports, excluding pharmaceuticals and IT services—which together account for about 50% of India’s exports to the U.S.
#TrumpTariffs #stockmarketnews

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

RBI CUTS FY26 GDP ESTIMATES TO 6.5 % FROM 6.7 % EARLIER
#StockMarketNews #rbimonetarypolicy #RBI

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

RBI REVISES FY26 CPI INFLATION FORECAST LOWER TO 4% FROM 4.2%
#StockMarketNews #rbimonetarypolicy #RBI

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

Accommodative stance indicates a higher probability 25bps cut in June.
#StockMarketNews #rbimonetarypolicy #RBI

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

RBI announced a 25bps repo rate cut to 6%. Change in stance from Neutral to Accommodative. 👍
#StockMarketNews #rbimonetarypolicy #RBI

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

A neutral stance suggests that the chances of a rate hike and a rate cut are evenly balanced. In contrast, an accommodative stance signals that rate hikes are unlikely and a more substantial rate-cutting cycle is likely ahead.
#StockMarketNews #rbimonetarypolicy #RBI

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

Retail investors now have more ownerships in the Indian markets vs. FIIs- for the first time

Source: Nuvama

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

Indian Markets are entering the phase of TIME CORRECTION⌚️

Historically, markets undergo three distinct types of corrections, each backed by ample evidence from past cycles:

1. Price Correction – The most visible and widely recognized form of correction, where market indices decline from their peaks.

2. Time Correction – A phase of consolidation where the market moves sideways over an extended period.

3. Earnings/Growth Correction – A downward revision in corporate earnings expectations, leading to a reset in valuation multiples.

Barring an unforeseen external shock, historical trends suggest that a healthy correction for broader indices typically falls in the range of ~20%, driven by a combination of these three factors.

- So far, the market has corrected ~15% from its peak purely in terms of price, and this has played out over the last six months.
- Corporate earnings growth expectations remain modest at 10-12%, in line with real GDP growth of ~7% plus ~4% inflation, making them reasonable and sustainable.

- The missing piece in this cycle appears to be "Time Correction", implying that, unless disrupted by an external shock, the market may now undergo an extended phase of consolidation rather than any more steep decline.

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

@KalapalaKing55 Approx 1.5 Lakhs

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

New tax slab

0-4 lakhs= nil
4-8 lakhs = 5%
8-12 lakhs = 10%
12-16 lakhs = 15%
16-20 lakhs= 20%
20-24 lakhs= 25%
24 lakhs+ = 30%
#incometaxindia #Budget2025 #NirmalaSitharaman

[Keshav Agarwal @EQVisors]

@KalapalaKing55 Basic exemption limit remains 4Lakh for income more than 12lakh
If income (non-capital gain income) is less than 12 lakh then you will get tax rebate and hence no tax payable