The S&P dealer position has inverted, and almost nobody is talking about what that does to the drift into OPEX.
Normally dealers are long upside and short downside. They hold a short futures position against that, and as time passes and those options decay they gradually buy those futures back. That steady buying is a big part of why the market so often grinds higher into a big expiry.
Right now it's the other way around. That relentless rally blasted straight through all the long strikes, so the street is short gamma on the upside and long on the downside. Which means they're holding long futures against the position, and as time passes they need fewer of them. They become a net seller.
So the same mechanism that usually pulls the market up into OPEX should be pushing it gently down this time or at least keeping a lid on the rally.
The downside is well supported, mind. There's something like $10 billion of long gamma sitting under this market, which is why the last few days of selling have been such a slow dribble rather than anything violent.
Supported below, heavy into expiry. Odd combination, worth watching,
@MattLeech@FS_Futures Affiliate payment. You cut my code off, didn’t say why, continued to have it work while not crediting me while my community used it, and cut off all communication and told me to contact Luke who never responded.
Really great way to handle things, man.
You’re going to say, “Please, Mr. President, no more record highs, we can’t take it!” And I’ll say, “No, we’re going to keep going, we’re going to make the stock market bigger and better than ever before.” Believe me.
Look at these numbers, folks. Look at them. Nobody’s ever seen anything like it. They come up to me, strong men, big tough guys, tears in their eyes, and they say: “Sir, thank you for the stock market.” And it’s true. The Dow, the S&P, the Nasdaq, it’s going up, up, up!
and say, “Donald, how do you do it? How is the market so incredible?” And I tell them, it’s about confidence. It’s about energy. We’re doing things nobody else could do. It’s called winning, folks. We’re winning so much, you’re going to get tired of winning.
Inquiring minds what to know that just 30 ish seconds prior to the CPI somebody dumped a bunch of #NQ_F
I smell a rat,,,,
But that does not surprise me
#NQ_F
#MNQ_f reversal setup: tag previous VWAP, rejection of the Weekly Open, close below the fast EMAs (confirmation). You can take the signal from the Nasdaq and execute on the #ES_f