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The 30% Rule
The 30% rule is something I reference a lot and it can be a huge help in learning when to take profit, when to reduce exposure or to identify that your leverage is too high.
The Basis
The very simple base for this theory is "how would I feel if the market sold off 30% from here?"
The question is relevant and powerful in bull market conditions.
Very often these strong corrections are part of the trend and it's down to a traders psychology how they handle those, whether it's resilience or panic selling.
The Answer
The answer you give to this when you really think about it, helps you determine your mental state and preparation.
I would be able to correctly identify a lot of your positions and leverage based solely on your response to this.
Your first response is probably "how do you think it's going to feel going -30%?" - well yeah, no shit Sherlock, but it's deeper than that.
The Short-term
If your answer is to immediately think about the unrealised PnL loss, you're probably more focused on the short-term price movements of the market and therefore your taking profit is going to be more regular than those in a swing position.
If your answer is to panic about the thought of it, the chances are that your position is already in substantial profit relevant to what you normally experience, your leverage is too high and your position size is larger than it should be.
The higher up the scale of panic or depression you slide when thinking about a crushing 30% candle, the more likely your leverage and position size is out of line. Your profit taking and scaling out of position should be a priority piece.
I'll also add here if you instead counter with "yeah but if it goes to X price I'm going to get an 8 figure return" you should close the position immediately.
The Long-term
Those who answer with opportunity or a chance to add to their positions are probably focused on the longer term playout of a position.
Note that I've not said whether a -30% correction would leave someone in profit or now underwater, those will feed into your own personal feelings on how you manage these situations.
For some people being underwater is part of the process, there's still an invalidation but there's still a relaxed feeling about knowing you might not be lucky enough to be green throughout your swing trade.
Some people will not be fully filled on a position and are scaling in over time to fill larger sizing or to help manage their risk. These sell offs will come as opportunity but we'll still need to manage the mental side of the unrealised PnL wipe.
-30% may also cause people to think "not great obviously, but I'm in from lower so I can survive that"
That's a great starting point for the psychology, preparation for the unrealised PnL wipeout and still holding or adding to a position.
The next challenge is the reality of that situation playing out. It's far easier to say it than to do it. But the mental preparation goes a long way.
So, the 30% rule, a quick test for your exposure, ability to survive sell offs, a signal to take profit, a signal to begin scaling out, a way to check yourself and your approach to a position and a grounding question to keep you focused on what your aims are.
How would you feel if the market sold off 30% from here?
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