Ghost of Kahn

Architecturing my Investment Philosophy
27 y/o I Catholic

[Ghost of Kahn @Etienneffm]

Me after holding $AMD for two months

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

My $PLTR thesis

[Ghost of Kahn @Etienneffm]

@alc2022 maybe take some profits at $2,000

[Ceomnsr @ceomnsr]

"sorry, can't hangout. i'm broke"

Bank balance : $36
Portfolio : $195,000

[Ghost of Kahn @Etienneffm]

@WatcherGuru @mcuban Never thought i'd agree with him. He's right.

[Ghost of Kahn @Etienneffm]

Reminder that you can buy Pershing Square at 31% discount to NAV right now and get exposure to some of the greatest companies in the world. Long $PSH

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Bill Ackman says Pershing Square made $MSFT “a core holding” after it began building the position in February. He says Microsoft “offers compelling value.”

[Ghost of Kahn @Etienneffm]

@oguzerkan Yes, but you can buy Pershing Square Holdings (the old LSE traded vehicle) at 31% discount to NAV. It's an attractive entry vehicle to some of these big names in my opinion.

[Ghost of Kahn @Etienneffm]

$PLTR currently trades a PEG ratio of 1.
People who think it's a bubble are ignoring the fundamentals.

[Davis. @Davis_C15]

$PLTR

Some quick napkin math…

Over the last 4 quarters, Palantir has beaten revenue expectations by an average of 6.5%

If the trend continues, Palantir’s FY 2026 revenue will be ~$8.15B vs $7.656B (company guidance)

Over the last 4 quarters, Palantir has beaten operating margins by an average of ~3.1%

If the trend continues, Palantir’s FY 2026 operating margins will be ~61% vs 58.1% (company guidance)

$8.15B with 61% operating margins = ~$5B adjusted operating income for a company growing 75-85% YoY…

FCF has also been accelerating…

Over the last 4 quarters, Palantir has beat FCF expectations/guidance by an average of ~19%.

If the trend continues. Palantir’s FY 2026 FCF will be ~$5.1B vs $4.2-$4.4B

Let’s assume Karp’s “100% growth next year” is true (probably sandbagged), that means for 2027 we can expect:

~$16.3B x 60% operating margins ≈$9.8B adj operating income

Assuming 75-80% FCF conversion that means ≈ $7.3 - 7.8B FCF and if we assume the average beat of 18-20% that puts FCF at ≈ $8.85B +

In other words, this puts Palantir in a completely different tier financially and this is based on current historical trends!

[Ghost of Kahn @Etienneffm]

just started my $PLTR position. Looks like fundamentals will catch up to valuation quickly

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

palantir fundamentals are so good that the market doesn't understand them

[Ghost of Kahn @Etienneffm]

@lord_fed i wish i thought of that 😂

[Fed @lord_fed]

Sell in May if you’re gay

[Ghost of Kahn @Etienneffm]

Everybody jumps to the conclusion "AI is a bubble", but ignore the fact that underlying demand is rising just as fast as the stocks.
Sure, if the fundamentals break down, the stocks will too. But what if they don't bc demand is actually sustainable? Then we're far from a bubble.

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

“Semiconductor stocks can’t just keep running higher”

Semiconductor stocks:

[SS @sshxbt]

top 5 CNBC clips of all time

[Will Biddy @WillBiddy_]

$DUOL report is not bad at all folks.

I see a lot of hate on here, and that’s because sentiment follows share price.

If this same report came out and the stock was up 10% everyone would be bullish on Duolingo.

Bookings and gross margin are the weak spots, but zooming out this company is incredible.

It now has 56.5M people using the platform every single day…

This number was only 52.7M 3 months ago!

monthly active users have climbed up yet again after falling last quarter.

Free cash flow is up ALOT YoY including FCF margins.

They bought back 1% of the company last quarter at bargain prices and plan to continue doing so moving forward with their $400M buyback program.

They’re executing on the teaching front as they’ve stated that words spoken in lessons is up over double YoY (management believes this will improve the user experience and make them a significantly stronger company long term)

I’m more than willing to let this one continue compounding for a few years while everyone thinks the end is near for good ole Duolingo!

[Ghost of Kahn @Etienneffm]

@cyberprince_rwo sure, only if

[Ghost of Kahn @Etienneffm]

$DUOL suffers from tough comps (viral dead Duo campagin and introducing energy)

Besides that, the quarterly numbers were strong

I guess they'll go back to pre-covid growth rates (15-20% annually) starting 4Q26, which is healthy for the business long-term

No reason to panic

[Ghost of Kahn @Etienneffm]

At this point it's obvious there's nothing wrong at all with $DUOL

Market reactions are just entirely detached from fundamentals for some reason.

Even Palantir crushed estimates and raised guidance significantly.

Yet, $PLTR is still down -5,5%

[Ghost of Kahn @Etienneffm]

Solid earnings by $DUOL

- 56.5M DAUs (up 21%)
- 147.8M FCF (50% margin)

but most importantly:
- 20,500 new course models (using AI to build faster)
- engagement up bc of improved content

Focus on improving and driving engagement
Exactly what long term investors like to see

[High Yield Harry @HighyieldHarry]

Walking into Chipotle for lunch and just saying “half cash, half stock”