EURx

Covering all things European restructuring.

[EURx @EURestructuring]

Welcome to EURx.

I see a lot of accounts on X doing great work covering US distressed, but Europe feels underserved; there’s a lot going on here, and we should be talking more about it. So let’s get to it.

Here we’ll cover all things European restructuring, everything from LMEs and market chatter around stressed situations to actual filings straight from the court records: UK schemes and plans, StaRUG, WHOA, sauvegarde, and the European names that end up in US courts.

Decks, deep dives and general distressed knowledge at eurestructuring dot com.

Follow, comment, bookmark, tell me this is pointless… any feedback welcome ✌🏼

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@friedmandave @boardyai Right, but that's no different to any single asset securitisation structure. Those exist and trade in good size and liquidity.

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@rt55501 @islandfinancier @anchovycapital Thanks for the reply, BT. My post was a bit facetious regarding the potential additional loss (context doesn't always come through in X posts). Agree that if you're an LP, you're likely desperate for reassurance at this point. I still think Hamza solves this puzzle, fwiw.

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@friedmandave @boardyai Why couldn't you structure it like a single asset single borrower CMBS or a whole business securitisation with various risk loss tranches?

[EURx @EURestructuring]

Top underperformers in European HY, week ending 30 October (wtd cash px moves)

TCGR -12 (Steerco of Sona, Arini & co putting more money in?)

INTRUM down 5-6 (again)

Centrient aka DSPPHA -5

ONTEX -5

MPW down 3.5-4

WOLSLY -3.5

CERBA down 2.5-3

OI -2.5

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@islandfinancier @anchovycapital Let’s assume market is efficient and it’s around that level. Arini was rumoured to own $1bn of this. So an $800m mark to market loss. What’s an extra $200m at this point to their YTD returns…

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@islandfinancier @anchovycapital Right. And that 2L term loan looks to be trading around 20c today. So Arini would have certainly crystallised a loss on that already.

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@WShak1 Agreed. The trade here was in the 50s, not mid 90s. Too much risk of bonds gapping back to 50s if the M&A falls through

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@anchovycapital I don’t know the credit well enough to know if this is a zero in a process. I’ll look into it.

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@The_Rad_Dawg @IlliquidInsight Agreed. But with respect to deal-making, worth noting that some of the best negotiators anywhere are fixed income traders (buy or sell-side). It isn’t multi-billion dollar deals, but there are often major dollars at stake, and a very unique skillset required

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@WShak1 Kind of bullish, to be honest

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@boyinthesteppe Separately, how leveraged do you believe their master fund to be? Do you think that leverage is via actual TRS or just CDS magnifying bets? My understanding is more of the latter.

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@KingofBears7 @boyinthesteppe Really? Which desks do you believe are doing that? Quotes appear pretty consistent across trading desks on the names they’re involved in.

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@junkbondanalyst Bloomberg & others doing their best to manifest a high profile fund collapse

[EURx @EURestructuring]

Marelli's fight with OPmobility is over. Lenders paid an undisclosed amount to quash it, and the non-compete is waived for Marelli only. Favre stays as the future-CEO pick pending court approval. Full detail on the case page, link in bio.

https://t.co/xHSVOliWJ8

[EURx @EURestructuring]

https://t.co/NPQGu4nNQI

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@Restructuring__ Solid analysis. Only thing I’d say is Arini unfortunately wasn’t buying stressed risk at 40c, otherwise they’d be having a lot less issues at the moment!

[EURx @EURestructuring]

@rrrafet Messaged you. Let me know if that worked

[EURx @EURestructuring]

(A bit delayed, apologies)
Top underperformers in European HY, week ending 23 October (wtd cash px moves):

ADLFIN 10% 1.5L down 20+ !! 😨

DSPPHA (centrient) -10

STYRO -7ish

INTRUM down 5-10 (any super snr RCF holders sweating?)

ALTICE down another ~5

ZIGGO, FIBCOP down ~5