Evan Wasner

PhD Candidate in Economics, UMass Amherst

[Evan Wasner @EvanWasner]

Inflation is back. Real wages are down. But things may already be worse than they look.

During the COVID inflation the data said real wages ROSE, providing a buffer against today’s price surges.

But my NEW WORKING PAPER finds: those real wage gains were a statistical illusion🧵

[Isabella M Weber @IsabellaMWeber]

Almost five years ago I was declared an “unreal economist” for proposing that the return of inflation had something to do with a sharp rise in profit margins.

This was the beginning of a tireless research effort. @EvanWasner and I wrote a paper explaining how emergencies coordinate corporate price hikes causing sellers’ inflation. Our work has been discussed widely and cited by central banks, the IMF and OECD.

Now, Evan just became Dr Wasner with a brilliant dissertation on inflation, critical inputs and inequality.

Could not be prouder of my first ever PhD student graduating! Onwards! 🍾🍾🍾🍾

[Evan Wasner @EvanWasner]

@IsabellaMWeber I could not have done it without my fearless, caring, and supportive advisor!! I couldn't be more honored to be the first of many more to come of your students to graduate!!

[LambDressedAsMutton @RaukawaDiver]

Great thread here folks…

[Helaine Olen @helaineolen]

The vibes were real. Inflation was — and is — real. The lesson is when masses of people say their finances are declining, believe them.

[Evan Wasner @EvanWasner]

I'm sure 100% of people agree with me when I say the skyrocketing utility bills from data centers is absolutely worth it for this

[Tatum Turn Up @tatumturnup]

This is the greatest video I’ve ever seen. No notes. The lifeless clanker carcass just laying there. No crowd reaction, anything. Just Billie Jean. Until its lifeless shell is shamefully dragged off. Purely amazing.

[Evan Wasner @EvanWasner]

Every quarter, each household has a new consumption basket (specific to their own consumption habits). So items that are no longer consumed get dropped, new items get added. For quantity changes, I use Laspeyres indexes (so quantities are held fixed), but in the Appendix I include results with Paasche and Fisher indexes—the main results are unaffected.

[Evan Wasner @EvanWasner]

Inflation is back. Real wages are down. But things may already be worse than they look.

During the COVID inflation the data said real wages ROSE, providing a buffer against today’s price surges.

But my NEW WORKING PAPER finds: those real wage gains were a statistical illusion🧵

[Evan Wasner @EvanWasner]

You can find the link to the paper here (X keeps hiding my posts with the link to the paper on SSRN, not sure why): https://t.co/YY0BKVJk5R

[Evan Wasner @EvanWasner]

Furthermore, the results of this paper suggest: maybe sometimes public perceptions can be more accurate than “the data” after all. These lessons will be important as we head into another inflation fueled by supply shocks. 22/22

[Evan Wasner @EvanWasner]

@ernietedeschi @EconChrisClarke Every time I try to post the SSRN link it gets hidden, I have no idea why. Try the download link here (if this post even shows...) https://t.co/YY0BKVJk5R

[Evan Wasner @EvanWasner]

The short answer is yes. When it comes to annual household income, the measures in the graph are after taxes and transfer payments. So in 2020-2021, the stimulus checks and other tax credits resulted in a big increase in after-tax income. Then these disappear, and we see purchasing power in 2022-2023 dip below even 2019 levels for most households. When it comes to wages, it's a little more nuanced. There is a big jump in 2020 because a lot of people became unemployed, especially low-wage workers—statistically, this results in an increase in aggregate wage measures, but doesn't mean that people who remained working actually saw wage increases. But by 2022 unemployment returned to pre-pandemic levels.

[Evan Wasner @EvanWasner]

@EconChrisClarke here it is: https://t.co/OpqNlI69Tk

[Zachary D. Carter @zachdcarter]

Really interesting paper https://t.co/84uHpwhMs3

[Isabella M Weber @IsabellaMWeber]

The “Vibecession” was key to the downfall of Bidenomics. This must read paper leverages scanner data to show: People were right to be worried about affordability. Real wages can fail to capture the actual living standards of the majority. We need better measures of affordability.