I've been getting a lot of DMs about gambling math...
Common questions:
> How many bets should I place per day? 🤔
I mean, it depends... When I was a quant @ SIG, I placed 10,000+ trades/day. If the trade has an edge, you take it. Some days the market is slower...
Same is true in sports. How many games are on? How many books do you use? Etc. These are ALL factors... If a bet is +EV, then you should place it. That could mean 5 or 10 or 20 bets per day.
> How do you determine unit size? 🤔
Typically the max a book gives me. Some books allow more than others.
I do NOT make $ from any betting company. ZERO. This is just true.
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Odds were going crazy for this due to the fumble review.
Lawrence no TD (Kalshi) : Risk $1,017.27, Payout $1,338.56
Lawrence anytime TD (Hard Rock) : Risk $190 total across two slips, Payout $1,350
Total risked : $1,207.27
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[Image: October calendar — all green, $4,672.64]
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Sharps have loaded the OVER side at +143 avg on the sharp exchanges. That means sharps are paying -143 to take the Over. PrizePicks has the Under at -122, so we're getting a better price than the sharps are paying for the opposite side.
Play 1 - José Ramírez Over 1.5 Hitter FS (CLE vs TB)
Play 2 - Elijah Brown Over 249.5 Pass Yards (WASH vs PUR)
Play 3 - Jacory Croskey-Merritt Under 12.5 Rush Atts (WAS vs SF)
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BOOM 💥
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