EVisking

Former D1 college player.
Professionally betting on tennis since 2012.
No.1 ranked tennis tipster on Tipstrr.
9% margin over 1650 bets, all at Pinnacle odds.

[EVisking @EVisking_]

1) A thread on why CLV does not equal EV.

Yes, sure, it is a little inspired by Carabelli going off 4.86 for a -17% CLV on my bet at 4.44.

But, the people backing Michelsen in the 1.25 to 1.30 range cannot possibly have known he had lost 15 pounds from food poisoning.

[EVisking @EVisking_]

@tennismasterr He was in the RG dubs SF 5 days ago. Probs had <4 hours prep on the grass.

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@WYTAWillis @spreaker SO PLEASED FOR MARCUS!!

[EVisking @EVisking_]

@Tennis_Metrics I’m going to respectfully disagree actually. I think there is some outcome/hindsight bias that works with these. When the injured player loses your brain just moves on as that was the expected outcome but when something crazy happens like yesterday it’s very memorable!

[EVisking @EVisking_]

Hit a Reverse Sweep yesterday, can ADM give us the clean sweep today to make up for it?!

[EVisking @EVisking_]

Nava quickly becoming one of my favorite players, it looks like he really loves his job and is so happy to be at the ATP level. I chatted to him briefly at Surbiton Challenger a few years ago and he seemed like a super nice guy. Fun game to watch also!

[EVisking @EVisking_]

@Chartist45 My ROI at Pinnacle is 9% over 1665 bets, all tracked by either Pyckio, and (since Tipstrr bought Pyckio) Tipstrr. I only tip at Stake when there is an issue with the Tipstrr website such that it is not giving me the option to tip Pinnacle odds.

[EVisking @EVisking_]

I couldn't have put it any better than this.

[A Lucky A Day @aluckyaday]

@BettingIsCool If your ev = clv all it means is you do not know of any inefficiencies that the market does not know about at close. If does not mean those inefficiencies don't exist or that other people don't know about them 😉

[EVisking @EVisking_]

@Tennis_Metrics Sorry to miss you on Monday - next year I will try to go for longer!

[EVisking @EVisking_]

@Tennis_Metrics Guilty! 🤑

[EVisking @EVisking_]

@aluckyaday @BettingIsCool @WadsterTips @EvisKing I think it's quite clear that having +ve CLV is a good thing for your Expected Value, that is to say that the market gets more efficient as time goes on, ON AVERAGE.

But it is still definitely possible to have (lots of) bets with +ve EV which have -ve CLV.

[EVisking @EVisking_]

@BettingIsCool @WadsterTips @EvisKing Ps congrats on the very impressive start to the year!

[EVisking @EVisking_]

@BettingIsCool @WadsterTips @EvisKing Be careful wasting your time and energy with this guy @WadsterTips, he has never been into the weeds in betting and developed his own edge and is clearly just jealous of people who have.

[EVisking @EVisking_]

Does anyone know if the website https://t.co/clwJ40keuq
will be coming back?

It was so good for checking entry lists of future tournaments but hasn't been updated since the end of last year...

[EVisking @EVisking_]

Decent start to 2026:
Bets: 87
Profit: 77 units
ROI: 18.7%

But variance can play a large role in small sample sizes like this. There is, in fact, a 5% chance that these 87 bets actually had EV of zero...

[EVisking @EVisking_]

Not a bad nights work 😊

[EVisking @EVisking_]

@tennismasterr He is signed into Bejing Q's next week...

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This is some proper defense!!

[FFT @FFTennis]

CORENTIN MOUTET, COMMENT ?

#RolandGarros

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@tennismasterr Do they have a roof there do you know?

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@tennismasterr @budybet definitely different to not playing for 6 weeks, yes