xB | Expected Birmingham

Football data, Blues bias. Player analysis, squad strategy and Championship trends - three times a week on Substack.

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

If you've wondered why the away form was so poor, how Blues compare to the promoted clubs, what the squad needs this summer and who to target and much more...

It's all in the xB End of Season Review.

15,000 words. 10 chapters.

👉 https://t.co/uz1rJLvRaO

#BCFC #Championship

[jeremy dale @JeremySDale]

It has been a pleasure and a privilege to work alongside someone who has done so much for our club - more than anyone will ever really know. All Blues fans are indebted to him for getting us to where we are now. Thank you for everything, Craig!

[Blackburn Rovers @Rovers]

We are delighted to welcome back Tony Mowbray, who returns to Ewood Park as our Head Coach ™️

#Rovers 🔵⚪️

[Daniel Ivery @almajir]

It's been reported Craig Gardner is leaving #bcfc.

Felt I should write something about it.

https://t.co/qo5Ndt95Qa

[Birmingham City FC @BCFC]

The Club can confirm that Craig Gardner will leave his role as Director of Football.

Tap to read the full statement.

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

Transfer window opens on June 15th too 😶

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

@FrontlineGamer Completely agree. It's huge. Big opportunity, but also a big risk.

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

Gardner leaving makes me nervous and excited in equal measure. Coaches and players come and go, but the next DoF could decide what sort of club Blues are for the next ten years. This is potentially the most important hire they'll make for the next 5-10 years.

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

@alexjhurley 2/2 I also think there was logic to loaning Doyle and getting Kyogo. Doyle a progressive line breaking passer, Kyogo an on the shoulder forward thriving on that. Seems reasonable. But practically/tactically didn't play to their strengths. So there's been a mismatch somewhere.

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

Wow. Obvs heard the rumours, but still a bit of a shock. Did more for this club than he'll probs get credit for, especially through the KH takeover.

Recruitment wasn't as bad as the narrative suggests imo. Learning curve for everyone involved. Wish him well.

KRO

[John Percy @JPercyTelegraph]

Birmingham City’s director of football Craig Gardner is stepping down from his position. Gardner to leave Blues after 5 years in various roles. Recruitment process to replace him is already underway #bcfc #kro

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

@alexjhurley 1/2 Well, that's not true. I only wrote in May that I had mainly focussed on players outside of the EFL, when my own TOTS was 70/30 EFL players.

https://t.co/NERno9lqMF

And from then on, I've tried to write more about EFL players.

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

@Jaytoday1297 I'm definitely not Kyogo's agent. 👀

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

Kyogo scored twice in ten days in January. Then played 16 minutes for the rest of the season.

0.87 xGOT/90 at Celtic. 0.15 at Birmingham.

Bad player or wrong system? A thread 🧵

#BCFC #Championship

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

0.87 xGOT/90 at Celtic. 0.15 at Birmingham. That is not a decline. It is a collapse.

Blues will likely sign another striker this summer.

Understanding why it went wrong matters before they do.

🔗 https://t.co/xY5PTt1YbN

#BCFC #Championship

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

I'm definitely making a forward pass after hearing that.

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

Love this "but it has to happen playing football".

Not just winning. Playing. There's a generation of managers - Bielsa, Klopp, Enrique and maybe Kompany who see the game as art before they see it as just winning.

What football is about imo. Entertainment.

[Football DNA @footballdna_]

Here's an inside look at Luis Enrique's fiery half-time team talk from back in 2024, when his PSG side weren't meeting his expectations vs Real Sociedad in the Champions League 👀

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

@AlexRusseii 😭

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

100th piece tonight🎈.

It's on Kyogo. The man. The myth. The one league goal ❤️.

Didn't expect to still be doing this when I started. Glad I am. Still learning.

If you're interested in my stuff:
📩 https://t.co/bdWf5lPmD3

#BCFC #Championship

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

Because every forward Birmingham sign into a patient, low-direct-attack system faces a version of this.

The question is whether the club understands why it happened.

If they do not, they may repeat it.

Read more here:
🔗https://t.co/xY5PTt1YbN

#BCFC #Championship

[xB | Expected Birmingham @ExpectedBham]

So the honest position is somewhere between "the system failed him" and "he was never good enough."

Both things are true. Neither cancels the other out.

But the reason this matters is not Kyogo. It is the next striker. And the one after that.