Theo

doing stuff @fairgambling

[Theo @FairGambleTheo]

@gufacircus @shufflecom @robshfl @Circusfyi 1 of 1

[Theo @FairGambleTheo]

@Danyo_05 Back in 2024 he had an interesting take about on-chain, will be cool to see what they can do!

[Theo @FairGambleTheo]

Noah Dummett is my gambling hero

In light of all the casino leaks, it’s easy to forget how important transparency is. It’s so much better to have a name and face behind the product you’re using

This guy is never in any drama, he just wants to build (true grinder). Shuffle is definitely one of the best products on the market, I’d say top 3

To top it all off he is a handsome and charismatic guy

Noah please give me the Shuffle cigarettes and loss back

[Theo @FairGambleTheo]

@degencom Noah doesn’t even respond to my very important DMs

[Theo @FairGambleTheo]

@TXPLAYSX when i found out they were siezed i fell to my knees

[Theo @FairGambleTheo]

TLDR: The cards dealt after splits and doubles come out at exactly 1/52, same as every other card or hand played.

For context, every bet gets its own card sequence, built with HMAC-SHA256 from your active client seed, the server seed, and that bet's nonce. Because it functions as a continuous, infinite deck, cards can repeat without limit.

We used Duel's published card generator and simulated 20 million hands under Duel's published rules. The result was a uniform distribution across all 52 cards, with every deviation falling inside normal sampling error, including the cards dealt after splits and double downs.

Whether you play perfectly or imperfectly makes no difference, your next 50 cards are already determined the moment the game is active. That is what stops a casino from rigging these games, the sequence of the deck is locked in before it has any idea what you will do with it. There is nothing stopping you from hitting 18 against a 6. If a card ever came from outside that sequence, you could prove it by replaying your own seed.

[Mike Reggular @reggularMike]

Blackjack Players: We Need a Split & Double Audit

@fairgambling Can you check this? Casinos often advertise 99.4%–100% RTP for House blackjack when played with perfect basic strategy. But has anyone independently audited the cards dealt after Split and Double decisions?

These probabilities should be the same whether the card is dealt on a normal hit, after a Split, or after a Double Down.

The question is simple:

Do Stake, Duel, and other provably fair casinos actually match these expected probabilities on Split and Double cards?

This is easy to verify with a large dataset of provably fair hands. We need an independent audit of:

• Split A-A
• Split 8-8
• Double on 11
• Double on 10 and Soft 18

If the distribution of cards after these decisions differs from the expected probabilities, players deserve transparency.

Let’s audit the data, not the marketing. If a casino claims 100% RTP, the Split and Double distributions should stand up to statistical scrutiny over thousands of hands. Even the smallest statistical deviations can translate into millions in profit for a casino

[Theo @FairGambleTheo]

FACT: In 2022 Roobet was sold to a Chinese syndicate and now 38% of their employees use ancient Chinese techniques to steal player RTP

[Korra @korraflow]

🚨 This "Roobet whale" is using fully recycled/fake money, and I have proof.

The screenshot implies $63.8m in deposits. This is false. It's actually the same tiny amount deposited to Roobet, withdrawn back, and deposited again, over and over, creating a massively inflated metric

Wallet address: TLn8UuA8APD1QkRmQZ5s5gXrwwBXUZYvwz

95.88% of the $58.3m in deposits have been recycled from Roobet withdrawals.

One example of many:
- On 17 Sep 10am, Roobet sends $1m to a wallet which sends it to the whale's address
- At 1pm the same day, the whale's Roobet deposit address receives $400k + $600k. All goes right back.
- This full loop is counted as 1m in deposits on the tracker, even though it deposits 1m that originated from Roobet, twice, that returned from the exact same whale

In another case, Roobet sends $3m out to an intermediary wallet, of which $1m goes to the whale's tracked deposit address, and then that $1m is recycled back to Roobet. A full recycle within 24 minutes, but the tracker again counts this as a fresh deposit. Transaction evidence is shown in the images for both cases

Out of the lower bound $58.3m claimed in deposits, we could only confirm that a maximum of $2.4m came from non-recycled non-Roobet funding. So this is overstated by a factor of 24x.

People reading this data and believing Roobet really has the largest whale should think twice about why someone would want you to believe that's the case. The blockchain doesn't lie.

[Theo @FairGambleTheo]

@Dollartree_1 tbf it does say min. deposit 6 times on screen, and in bright yellow letters

can't fix stupid

[Peter @peter_yeet]

I’m back touting our AVG Sports Edge is still the second to best in the industry.

Do with that what you will.