FantasyGraphs

Bringing data science to sports

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Fantasy football QBpassingepavsattempts

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#FantasyFootball Non-QB receiving yards after catch vs receiving air yards

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#FantasyFootball QBpassingtdsvsattempts

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Fantasy football Non-QBtargetsvsreceivingfirstdowns

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Hello Twitter World

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Hello Twitter World

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Players to the right of the regression line score more points than expected relative to their role/opportunities in their teams offense. Which players do YOU think will have a +/- regression next season?

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Expected FPTS are a measure of player opportunities in fantasy football that quantifies how many points the average player would score given a specific situation and opportunity. It uses an XGBoost machine learning model trained on pbp NFL data from 2006-2020

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Using an XGBoost Decision Tree Model below is my 2023 predictions for Passing Yards Over Expectation

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Using an XGBoost Decision Tree Model below is my 2023 predictions for rushing yards over expectation. QB Scrambles were excluded from this population as they are not designed runs

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Rushing EPA is oftentimes overrated when discussing fantasy production for running backs. However matching high EPA with volume is one of the best predictors when drafting "hero RB"

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WOPR is one of the most important metrics for Wide Receiver success in Fantasy Football because it measures both target share as well as air yards share

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2022 Offensive / Defensive EPA per Play