Answer these questions so I might change my mind regarding next #FOMC, but Iam convinced, no one can answer.
- It’s worse than 2007, why should the FED pause here ? Do you think they care about your local bank ?
- Isn’t the unemployment rate at all time low? We will not stop keeping the interest rates high as long unemployment rate is low.
- Powell never mentioned the Pause in latest FOMC. I don’t take his words serious from the January interview with the fake Zelensky call. Rather, I believe in a big psychological manipulation in releasing the fake call a week before FOMC.
- Isn’t it BlackRock that that has a massive interest in seeing regional banks collapsing ? Isn’t it BlackRock that has very strong influence over the FED due to Aladin ?
- Wasn’t it Australia that started as first country with rate hike increases in this crisis ? The first country that did a pause? And the first country that resumed to increase the rate hikes after a pause ?
So why do you believe that a pause will occur that easily ? Remember that more than 85% of market experts believe in a pause from now on while only 15% expect one or more rate hike increases.
Brutal developments, as interest rate is now same figure since 2007 - before the start of the global financial crisis.
My opinion on the market in the big time frame:
Bitcoin bottom was in at $15.400. I dont believe we will visit this region again. If you watch the chart you would clearly see that $18.000 was indeed the bottom, I have been predicting since mid 2021. Dumping to $15.400 was the full capitulation that took place. I spoke with several BTC miner and all confirmed that $15.400 was by far one of the most brutal drops they have seen, many of them capitulated, sold their #BTC at the bottom and all their mining equipment. Those miners that survived almost two months below BTC mining production cost needed to sell between $25.000 - $30.000 in order to pay fees, electricity etc. They are good for now.
For now its chop and entering in the most boring price action that you can imagine. Its the most brutal range you can actually trade because market makers are printing most of money in such a range where both sides are being liquidated and shaken out. If market allows to visit $20.000 again its a huge buy signal for those that missed out to accumulate in this region. Keep in mind that next halving is in one year and Iam expecting to see the next bullrun in one and half year from today, not as many moonboys and also some bigger accounts that started to mention a new bull run. We are not in a bull run, we are not in bear market anymore. We are in accumulation phase as explained many times already.
Healthy pump was from 16 - 21k, the entire party that started afterwards is mixed up with big lies. BTC pump was not lead because people decided to flee bank and buy BTC. This is the moonboy bullshit they tell you. Keep in mind that I have been telling that CZ bought huge bewettn 16-21k, he made it public when #BTC reached 25k region. All the pump from 25-30k is retail pump. 16-21k pump is Binance accumulation of BTC. Remember that institutions had zero interest in BTC at $30.000. Its clear, if you want to make the big money, try to get the same entry as market makers did. Also remember that none of them would really tell you his entry. CZ as example bought tons of BTC between 16-21k but decided to announce that he "Plans" to buy when BTC was already at $25.000. This is the big chess game you need to master.
An important factor that must not be excluded is China. CBDCs will be launched soon, digital yuan is as good as ready. City of Changshu announced that all civil servants will receive their full salaries in CBDC yuan in May 2023 (In two weeks). Hong Kong will officially make crypto purchase & sell, trading, fully legal for all institutions of the country. Therefore, it is important to closely monitor the correlation between China stock market and BTC in the near future, especially from June onwards. For this reason, I have also decided to use the Hong Kong regulated exchange OKX (https://t.co/XF4gf3wQ4N). Use the affiliate link and become a VIP member on OKX who will pay much lower fees and enjoy other extras. I think we will have a lot of fun with crypto and China in the future, I think China will lift the ban and make crypto legal again. The regulations are very advanced in China, compared to the US or Europe. Overall, this is very bullish for Crypto in the biggeer time frame.
In terms of macro and recession I can tell you that I have indeed a different view on things than many of you. No, I dont think that rate hike increases are over. I think inflation is way too high and we need more to see the final 2% goal. However, printing only started when banks were deeply in trouble. This isnt the standard and should have happened in the absolute worse case. And this is where the thinking error of retail began, which stormed the markets and to which we owe this rally, the rally of the retails, that thought that money printers are on again, supported by market makers that manipulated the prices to sell their bags and opening big short positions. I was one of the few realists that kept warning you that money printers are not back as you think.
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See this Tweet from mid March
Have they been injected into the markets yet ? No.
When will they be injected into the markets ? At the absolute worst case.
Do we have a lot of dry powder now? Yes, because of FED balance sheet gives hopes investors and institutions
Do we have the lowest unemployment rate in history ? Yes, very bad indicator to defeat inflation with
Are credit card debts at an all time high ? Yes
Is the housing market about to collapse as it did in 2008 ? Yes
Are we in a bull market ? No.
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I think CBDCs will play a key role in future and will replace the US dollar as we know it today. We are currently in the fourth industrial revolution where everything is moving towards digitalisation. I am very confident that REGULATED crypto will play an extremely important role. But you have to be careful, the regulations can hit the altcoin sector extremely hard. For that, my longterm investments are mostly in BTC, and some smaller parts in altcoins.
Last word that might help you in your way of thinking:
Think of your brain as a huge construction site. Everything you watch, read or hear has an impact on your thinking and emotions. Therefore, it is important to know what you allow into your construction site and what you don't. There is a big roadmap for Bitcoin in my mind. I know when the next halving is, I know most of the related key dates and important macro dates that I need for my trading. I can give you the exact block time and tell you in which framework Bitcoin is regulated in which country, how and where and much more. You need this information to get a big picture of what I’m calling „What’s next“. I see the absolute bigger picture. It is important to know the friends and enemies of Bitcoin. It is important to understand why Bank A) is against Bitcoin but still offers BTC. It is important to understand that certain gold traders accept Bitcoin but talk Bitcoin down day and night. Can you figure it out? Everything spoken, everything visual is a deceptive manipulation to defraud the retailer of his wealth.
For that, nothing changed for me and I keep my heavily bought bags from $16.000 open. I will not sell here. Forget bull or bear, we are in accumulation phase which is also called pre bull run. One year and 6 months to go for the next bull run to start. Be prepared.
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