Football Biz Explained

Football Finance Hacker 💰
I turn €25M gross into £/week net + FFP cheats
Pinned thread 👇 90% get PSR wrong

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

Rodri green light to Barcelona is FFP nightmare math.

Barça proposal in agent's hands = €90M-€100M valuation. On 5yr deal = €20M amortisation per year + €20M gross wages = €40M annual FFP hit.

Barça need 1:1 rule + sales. Contacting Man City now to structure installments - €30M x 3 years to fit LaLiga cap.

For City: Rodri cost €70M in 2019, fully amortised. Any fee above €70M = pure PSR profit. If they sell at €95M = €95M profit in one window.

Operation Rodri full speed = Barça need De Jong sale first to fund it. Deco talking to Flick means wage structure already discussed at €12M net.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

🌳🛬 Ousmane Diomande has just landed in England to undergo medical tests on Monday at Nottingham Forest.

Finance view:

Sporting CB with €80m clause, Forest negotiating €35m + €5m add-ons = 56% discount vs clause. Sporting bought him €7.5m from Midtjylland in 2023, book value ~€4.5m left = €30.5m profit to hit.

Forest FFP: €35m on 5yr = €7m amortization/yr. Diomande wages €35k pw at Sporting, Forest offer €90k pw = €4.6m/yr. Total PSR load €11.6m/yr - they sell Murillo to cover.

Medical Monday = 4th major Forest CB investment this window.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

🚨🟢⚫ Sassuolo are closing in on deal to sign Rafael Obrador on loan from Benfica, agreement almost done.

It will include also a buy option clause.

Finance view:

Benfica bought Obrador for €5m from Real Madrid Castilla this summer, book value still €5m - straight loan to Serie A to develop. Sassuolo get LB without immediate amortisation.

Sassuolo logic: Newly promoted, DNCG-style Serie A cost control. Loan + €6m buy option = if they stay up, they buy at fixed price. Benfica keep 25% future resale in talks. Obrador wages €400k at Benfica, Sassuolo cover 80%.

Good bridge deal for both - Benfica asset grows in Italy.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

🚨🔴🔵 Olympique Lyon reach verbal agreement on loan deal to sign Zachary Athekame from AC Milan, as @FabriceHawkins reports.

Straight loan with salary 100% covered by OL.

Finance view:

AC Milan bought Athekame for €10m from Young Boys 6 weeks ago, book value still €10m - loan out to get minutes. No option = Milan keep full asset.

Lyon logic: Textor can't buy due to DNCG restrictions, so dry loan = 0 amortization. Athekame on ~€800k gross at Milan, OL cover 100% = €800k cost vs €5m+ market fee for RB. Lyon get starter RB without FFP hit.

Milan keep future profit, Lyon get immediate solution.

Done - medical this week.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

🔴🔵 Lucas Digne being officially announced shortly as new Paris Saint-Germain player.

Finance behind it:

Aston Villa LB on last 18 months of deal - book value ~€6m. PSG offer €12m + €3m add-ons = €9m profit for Villa PSR. Villa already covered with Maatsen.

PSG logic: Mendes injured again, Hernandez needs cover. Digne French, ex-PSG academy, homegrown quota + Ligue 1 proven. Wages €90k pw at Villa = €4.6m/yr, PSG offer same net on 2+1 yr deal.

Emery green light - wants to reduce wage bill. Medical in Paris tonight, official tomorrow.

Back to where it started for Digne.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

🚨🇧🇷 Bruno Guimarães reception at the Emirates Stadium after signing for Arsenal.

Finance behind it:

Newcastle PSR forced sale - Bruno had £100m release clause expired June 30, Arsenal negotiated £75m + £10m add-ons = £25m discount vs clause. Newcastle book value £16m left, so £59m profit to close PSR gap.

Arsenal structure: £75m over 5 years = £15m amortization/yr. Wages £210k pw = £10.9m/yr. Total FFP load £25.9m/yr - cheaper than Rice year 1.

Sky Sports PL footage shows red carpet walk, fans in Emirates - medical done yesterday, now presentation. Baggy jeans + home kit = new Arsenal tradition for Brazilians.

Done deal. Arteta's new 6. 🇧🇷

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

🔴⚪️ Mikel Arteta: "I'm very happy to have Bruno with us. The energy he brings, and the hunger and desire to come here and make great history with the club".

"He has the ambition to take us to the NEXT LEVEL".

Finance behind Arteta's obsession:

Bruno = Arteta profile - press resistant, final third carries. Arsenal tracked since 2023, waited for PSR window.

£75m fee on 5yr + 1yr option = £15m amortisation/yr. Wages £200k pw = £10.4m/yr. Total PSR load £25.4m/yr - Arteta chose experience over cheap.

Arteta photo at SOBHA Realty Training Centre = medical + contract signed. Emirates FLY BETTER training kit = official announcement tomorrow with home kit.

Here he is. 🇧🇷 Arteta finally gets his 6.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

🟡🔵🇸🇦 Exclusive from a month ago CONFIRMED: Samu Costa to Al Nassr from Mallorca, here we go!

Finance breakdown:

Mallorca bought Samu for €3m in 2023, selling now for €12m + add-ons = €9m profit on LaLiga FFP. Book value ~€1.5m left, so pure plusvalenza.

Al Nassr logic: Saudi PIF budget allows €12m fee amortised over 3yr = €4m/yr + wages €4.5m net (~€6m gross). Fits SPL salary cap via central fund.

Samu Costa 25yo Portuguese DM - Mallorca to Al Nassr, medical done. Romano exclusive from July 17 now confirmed.

Al Nassr midfield rebuild continues.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

Liverpool throw away 2-0 again - Monaco come back to win 3-2 at Anfield 😬

Isak 16' and Wirtz 29' had Liverpool flying, then Golovin 44', Biereth 56', Brunner 88' complete turnaround.

Second pre-season game in a row Liverpool blow two-goal lead - Slot not happy.

Friendly: LFC 2-3 ASM

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

ÖZEL | Çorum FK agree €2.1m deal for Alexandros Kyziridis from Hearts.

Finance breakdown:

Hearts bought winger for ~€400k in 2023, now selling €2.1m = €1.7m pure profit on SPFL books. 1 year left on deal, so cashing in now.

Çorum FK (1. Lig) logic: €2.1m bonservis = club-record fee for Çorum, paid in 2 installments. Kyziridis 25yo on €450k gross at Hearts, Çorum offer 3yr €600k + bonuses to push promotion to Süper Lig.

Hearts reinvest: 2.1m covers 2x new wingers in Scottish market + frees wage bill for new striker.

Done for €2.1m - medical next week.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

🚨🟡🔵 Frosinone agree deal to sign Aleksa Terzić as new fullback from RB Salzburg.

Finance view:

Terzić 26yo left-back, book value ~€1.5M left at Salzburg (bought €5.5M in 2023, 2yrs amortised). Sale fee expected €2M-€2.5M = small profit for Red Bull.

Frosinone Serie B logic: Free wage structure. Terzić on ~€800k gross at Salzburg, Frosinone offer 3yr deal €500k + bonuses = saves Salzburg €800k.

Medical Thursday = 3yr contract till 2029 on €700k amortisation per year. Low-risk FFP move for newly relegated side chasing instant promotion.

Here we go soon.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

@FabrizioRomano Wonderful

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

@FabrizioRomano ❤️‍🩹🫂 Rodrigo de Paul scores for Inter Miami and dedicates his goal to Leo Messi and his family after the passing of Jorge Messi.

De Paul with hands together tribute - Inter Miami players wearing black armbands tonight.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

🚨🟡🔵 Romelu Lukaku GREEN LIGHT to Fenerbahçe project after direct contacts with the president.

Finance breakdown:

Lukaku 32yo gave yes = Fener will cover full Napoli package. Deal now depends on club-to-club talks - Napoli paid €30m + add-ons last summer from Chelsea, book value ~€24m left on 3yr deal. They want €30-35m to avoid PSR loss.

Fener angle: Turkish Super Lig has no strict FFP cap like LaLiga/PL, they can pay via sponsor + installments. Lukaku wages €7m net at Napoli = €13m gross, Fener offer same net + €3m bonus via president funds.

Napoli to Fener chain = Conte wants replacement first (Nunez / Lucca), then green light.

Player says yes, now presidents talk money.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

❤️🤍 Mikel Arteta long-term push lands: Bruno Guimaraes ONLY top target for Arsenal midfield.

Finance behind Arteta's obsession:

Bruno = Arteta profile - press resistant, final third carries. Arsenal tracked since 2023, waited for PSR window.

£75m fee on 5yr + 1yr option = £15m amortisation/yr. Wages £200k pw = £10.4m/yr. Total PSR load £25.4m/yr vs Zubimendi £20m/yr - Arteta chose experience over cheap.

Arteta photo at SOBHA Realty Training Centre = medical + contract signed. Emirates FLY BETTER shirt in orange = 25/26 training kit, not home - means official announcement tomorrow with home kit.

Here he is. 🇧🇷 Arteta finally gets his 6.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

⚪️⚫️❤️‍🩹 Bruno Guimaraes farewell to Newcastle - finance context behind the tough decision:

"This is one of the toughest decisions of my life... club was in challenging position when I arrived" - Bruno joined Jan 2022 when Newcastle 19th, relegation zone. £40m fee saved them.

"I thank PIF, Yasir Al-Rumayyan and Jamie Reuben" - PIF structure means Bruno sale = pure PSR profit. Book value £15m left, sell £75m = £60m profit to avoid points deduction.

"I thank David [Hopkinson] and Ross [Wilson]... did everything to keep me" - Newcastle offered new deal £200k pw till 2028 with £100m release clause. Arsenal triggered £75m structured deal + waived loyalty bonus.

"This move is tough, Newcastle means so much" - Bruno kept £3m loyalty on table to force amicable exit, keeps Toon Army relationship for legend status.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

Bruno Guimaraes reveals Declan Rice DM: "Come here, no more fights, now we're friends!"

Finance of that midfield:

Rice £105m + Bruno £75m = £180m invested in one pivot. On 5yr amortisation = £36m/yr PSR hit + £20m combined wages.

Arsenal now have £180m + £65m Odegaard + £34m Zubimendi = £279m midfield four.

Bruno quote "I need a challenge like this" = waived Newcastle loyalty bonus (~£3m) to push move before PSR deadline.

Rice recruiting = Arteta's dressing room sell, zero agent fee on player

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

Bruno Guimaraes DONE DEAL to Arsenal - finance lens:

£75m on 5yr + option = £15m amortisation/yr till 2030. Wages £200k pw = £10.4m/yr. Total Arsenal PSR hit £25.4m/yr - cheaper than Rice deal.

Newcastle business: Bought £40m Jan 2022, 3.5yrs amortised = £15m book value left. Sell £75m = £60m profit on 25/26 PSR - that's their FFP saviour before June 30.

Why checkered flag emoji: Plettigoal signalling medical done. Arteta + Berta in photo = Sobha Realty Training Centre contract signing already.

Arsenal pay in 3x £25m to help NUFC cash flow, NUFC avoid points deduction.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

Bruno Guimarães OFFICIAL to Arsenal £75m - PSR breakdown:

£75m fee on 5yr deal +1yr option = £15m amortisation per year till 2030. £200k pw wages = £10.4m gross yearly. Total PSR hit £25.4m/yr - fits Arteta midfield rebuild cap.

Newcastle forced to sell: Bruno book value was £35m left (bought £40m in 2022, 3.5yrs amortised). Sell at £75m = £40m pure profit in 25/26 PSR window - saves them points deduction.

Arsenal structure: £75m paid in 3 installments £25m x 3 to help NUFC cash flow + avoid big one-year hit. Contract till 2030 + option = locks prime 27-32yo, resale protected at £50m+ till 2028.

Why now? Newcastle need sales by June 30 PSR deadline. Arsenal get release clause triggered without auction.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

Atleti timing Cuti Romero bid after Molina/Almada sales is pure FFP wash.

Molina €20M + Almada €25M = €45M incoming, frees ~€15M wages. Cuti €40M package comes straight from that - LaLiga 1:1 rule sorted.

€40M for 27yo CB on 5yr deal = €8M amortisation per year. Spurs bought for €50M in 2022, already 3yrs amortised (€30M book value). Selling at €40M = €10M profit on PSR, plus wage saving €12M/yr.

Atleti want no hijack = paying full package now avoids auction. Ruggeri €12M expected as 3rd exit funds agent fees + add-ons.

Player talks ongoing = wage bump from £110k to €180k gross week to agree.

[Football Biz Explained @FBizExplained]

Vinicius Jr x Real Madrid - saga OVER, 18 months of talks finally closed. Finance view:

6yr renewal to 2032 = Perez locks €180M asset. No fee to amortise, but loyalty + bonus spread over 6yrs = ~€10M/yr on LaLiga cap vs €15M if 4yr deal.

Arsenal threat was real - AFC could offer €30M net wages. Madrid response: bump to €28M gross + €5M Ballon d'Or clause, keeps him under Mbappe but above Bellingham.

18 months deadlock was about image rights - Vini wanted 60%, Madrid held at 50/50. Final compromise unlocks Brazil market revenue.

Bernabéu extension, not exit.