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Gromen's thesis centers on the petrodollar system's collapse due to US debt overload, leading to a "monetary reset" where the dollar shifts toward asset-backing (e.g., gold, oil, commodities) to maintain relevance amid global dedollarization and BRICS alternatives. It aligns with Dalio's debt-cycle resets and Pozsar's BWIII commodity shift, emphasizing a multipolar world with reduced USD dominance.
If all correct, gold and commodities could soar as "outside money" hedges against inflation/debasement, becoming core to new trade/reserve systems—potentially revaluing gold higher in a reset endgame.
@grok thanks now explain how @LukeGromen thesis on the monetary reset and 'asset based dollar' work into this scenario .. and if Dalio, Gromen, and Zoltan are all correct what does that mean for GOLD and commodities in the endgame as we approach the final phase of the monetary 'reset'
Dalio's article likely extends his "Changing World Order" themes, warning of fiat system breakdown due to debt overload, geopolitical conflicts, and dilemmas like printing money (inflation) vs. debt crises, potentially sparking capital wars.
In Pozsar's BWIII framework (2022), this aligns with the shift from "inside money" (fiat like Treasuries) to "outside money" (commodities/gold), driven by sanctions, supply shocks, dollar weakening, and renminbi rise.
As of Feb 2026, we're mid-transition: Dollar hegemony erodes via BRICS realignment, gold reserves surge, China pushes RMB globally, but USD remains dominant amid inflation and tensions. Ongoing, not complete.
@RayDalio@grok give a full review of Dalio's article within the scope and work of Zoltan's thesis on Bretton Woods III and give us an idea where we are in regards to the changing monetary order
https://t.co/8n4qr85sQD
#MSTR $MSTR updates
we have been the most accurate on #MSTR and #BTC trading .. we discussed that $107 C wave target was reached and covered shorts there .. we are now watching to see where a short term top will emerge or can MSTR try to break out of the dome.
so far we have a bounce from the target range and we are still in the dome. We would not shift to a bullish bias until or unless the dome breaks and any move back below $110 to $100 range would be extremely bearish
#MOVE $MOVE Bond Volatility Index (Blue) vs. $SPX S&P 500 in (Green)
S&P has loved low bond volatility ... but are the alligator jaws getting ready to snap? 👀
Also starting to see low liquidity moves in all sectors and Hindenburg omens
(HO Clusters Script for trading view)
https://t.co/0tinVVxWZk
@LukeGromen@DowdEdward@LynAldenContact
have you Bitcoiners figured out yet that the more derivatives on BTC (ETF, Options, Yielding synthetics, etc. etc. etc. ) the more on chain BTC loses pricing power to derivative paper pricing ?
some lessons going be tough
the idea of BTC as 'money' out of the system is now officially dead it is now deeply embedded and controlled by Wall Street
Satoshi would be rolling over in his grave.
#BTC & #ETH & $MSTR shorts
going to be closing some shorts as they are in extreme profits
$ETH hit wave 5 target so so we are now going to TP on some of shorts from above
$BTC moved faster than even the 2022 fractal but may have a slight kick up here so again major profits from way above going to lighten the load tomorrow
$MSTR we shorted (puts) from over $380 and it hit our target at $107 that we have been calling for many weeks... tomorrow we will TP some of these positions as they are up massively. The rest we will still sit in or hedge with lower strike puts to create a spread
thanks for participating in some massive gains those of you that followed our calls.
They have killed the MOVE index .. any ideas as to if this goes again soon?
Btw ... as you know one of the best BUY signals on BTC is a move index over 130 never fails
the ultimate risk asset put from the FED when markets seize up they must act .. BTC sniffs it out as a highly levered Risk Asset
Another reason we exited BTC near the top and have not bought back ... Move has not told us to yet.
Price-insensitive buyers of USTs in blue (global FX reserves, ex-gold) v. US Federal debt (orange).
Since 2022, biggest marginal buyer of "the gap" has been highly-levered hedge funds in the Caymans... which is fine, as long as volatility NEVER rises ANYWHERE, in ANYTHING.
#BTC $BTC #CryptoTrading
broke the line the correlation with the 2022 drop is now over 89% and strengthening
all the BTC maxies and shillers keep trying to get you to catch a falling knife we warned .. too early have to wait and see
$ETH #ETH#CryptoTrading
ETH is not looking great extreme caution if this breaks down we could see a move to $2100 range ...
caution needs a reversal here soon to break the patten